3-Day Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘LEGO Batman Movie’ ($34.2M) and ‘Fifty Shades Darker’ ($21.0M) Lead Again; ‘Great Wall’ Trumps Other Debuts w/ $18.1M; ‘Fist Fight’ Punches In $12.0M

Three new debuts, including an attempted blockbuster from Matt Damon, couldn’t match the two leaders from last time as The LEGO Batman Movie stayed on top for the second weekend. Fifty Shades Darker took the runner-up spot again as well, as The Great Wall debuted in third and Fist Fight started in fifth.

[Note: numbers listed below are for three-day studio weekend estimates. Due to the Presidents Day holiday on Monday, four-day studio weekend estimates will be posted on Monday, and weekend actuals on Tuesday.]

Warner Bros.’ animated The LEGO Batman Movie built its way to an estimated $34.2 million weekend. The 35.4 percent decline was a steeper drop than the 27.8 percent second-weekend decline for 2014’s The LEGO Movie. Batman‘s $98.7 million total through two weekends is running 24.0 percent behind the original LEGO film’s $130.1 million through the same point.

Universal’s romance Fifty Shades Darker tied up an estimated $21.0 million. The 54.9 percent decline was noticeably lower than the near-record 73.9 percent second-weekend decline for 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey. It’s also a lower second-weekend decline than four of the five Twilight films experienced. Still, Darker‘s $89.6 million total through two weekends is running 30.5 percent below the $129.1 million earned by Grey through the same point.

Legendary and Universal’s The Great Wall might need Mexico to pay for it, because its estimated $18.1 million debut indicates domestic audiences weren’t especially willing to foot the bill. The historical action fantasy starring Matt Damon had a reported $150 million budget, but the film appears likely to be considered a financial success overall when including its great overseas run. It’s earn $244.6 million overseas to date, including $171 million in China where the story takes place. Domestically Wall starts 28.1 percent above the $14.1 million opening of last year’s Gods of Egypt, another historical action film released in February.

The film earned a “B” average CinemaScore from an audience that was 59 percent male and 50 percent over age 30. The movie started with an estimated $5.9 million on Friday (including $970 thousand from Thursday night previews), improved an estimated 18.6 percent to $7.0 million on Saturday, and is projected to decline 25.7 percent to $5.2 million on Sunday. The opening weekend to Friday ratio is an estimated 3.06 to 1.

Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 2 took fourth place with an estimated $16.5 million weekend. The 45.7 percent decline was in line with the 44.5 percent second-weekend decline that 2014’s John Wick experienced. On Friday, Chapter 2 already exceeded the lifetime gross of the original installment, and the sequel’s $58.6 million so far is currently running 36.3 percent ahead of the original’s $43.0 million final haul.

Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema’s Fist Fight bare-knuckled a fifth place start with an estimated $12.0 million. The R-rated action comedy starring Ice Cube and Charlie Day starts 64.4 percent behind the $33.8 million opening of Get Hard and 65.9 percent below the $35.2 million opening of Ride Along 2, although to be fair expectations and budget were both lower for Fist.

Fist received an average “B” CinemaScore from an audience that was 54 percent male and 61 percent over 25 years old. The title began with an estimated $3.8 million on Friday (including $600 thousand from Thursday night previews), improved an estimated 26.9 percent on Saturday to $4.8 million, and is projected to decline 30.0 percent on Sunday to $3.3 million. The film’s opening weekend to Friday ratio is 3.15 to 1.

Fox’s horror A Cure for Wellness started in a disappointing 10th place with an estimated $4.2 million. The twisted mystery’s low start can hardly be attributed to lack of awareness, as the film advertised during the Super Bowl to more than 100 million people. Part of it may have been the film’s poor reviews, with a 38 percent average on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, but that’s in line with both of this weekend’s other two debuts which both had higher box office. (Fifty Shades Darker currently stands at a mere 9 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, yet has done well at the box office.)

Cure started with an estimated $1.5 million on Friday (including $300 thousand from Thursday night previews), improved an estimated 6.9 percent on Saturday to $1.6 million, and is projected to decline 35.0 percent on Sunday to $1.0 million. The film’s opening weekend to Friday ratio is 2.76 to 1. That’s frontloaded enough that the film may not even reach $10 million in total.

The top 10 films this weekend made an estimated cumulative $130.1 million. That’s 23.9 percent behind the $171.0 million earned by the top 10 films last weekend. It’s also 39.6 percent behind the $215.8 million earned by the top 10 films on this weekend last year, when Deadpool broke records with a $132.4 million debut.

Limited Releases:

Pantelion’s Everybody Loves Somebody started with an estimated $1.0 million in 333 theaters. Magnolia’s I Am Not Your Negro continued its theater expansion with an estimated $975 thousand on 259 screens, its widest release yet. Fox Searchlight’s A United Kingdom expanded from four to 45 theaters and took in an estimated $270 thousand. And the top per-screen average went to the same film as last weekend: Oscilloscope’s Kedi with $78,500 on seven screens for a $11,214 average.

Overseas Update:

Fifty Shades Darker led the overseas box office for the second weekend with an estimated $43.7 million, down 55.3 percent, in 59 markets. The film has now earned a $187.2 million overseas and $276.9 million global total. Notable grosses to date include $21.0 million in the United Kingdom, $20.9 million in Germany, and $15.1 million in France.

La La Land launched in China on Valentine’s Day, zooming the fading film back up to a $31.7 million overseas weekend (up more than double) in 73 markets. The film has now earned a $206.1 million overseas and $339.6 million global total. Notable grosses to date include $35.0 million in the U.K., $24.5 million in China, and $23.4 million in South Korea.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, February 17 – Sunday, February 19, 2017:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The LEGO Batman Movie $34,225,000 -35% 4,088 0 $8,372 $98,791,314 2 Warner Bros.
2 Fifty Shades Darker $21,000,000 -55% 3,714 4 $5,654 $89,696,455 2 Universal
3 The Great Wall $18,100,000 3,326 $5,442 $18,100,000 1 Universal
4 John Wick: Chapter 2 $16,500,000 -46% 3,113 0 $5,300 $58,692,083 2 Lionsgate / Summit
5 Fist Fight $12,015,000 3,185 $3,772 $12,015,000 1 Warner Bros. / New Line
6 Hidden Figures $7,100,000 -11% 2,217 -450 $3,203 $142,591,830 9 Fox
7 Split $7,000,000 -27% 2,445 -516 $2,863 $123,565,530 5 Universal
8 A Dog’s Purpose $5,600,000 -23% 2,400 -625 $2,333 $50,715,510 4 Universal
9 La La Land $4,500,000 -9% 1,587 -478 $2,836 $133,504,066 11 Lionsgate / Summit
10 A Cure for Wellness $4,200,000 2,704 $1,553 $4,200,000 1 Fox
11 Lion $4,123,000 4% 1,542 205 $2,674 $36,378,483 13 Weinstein Company
12 Rings (2017) $2,250,000 -60% 1,560 -1371 $1,442 $25,673,218 3 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Moana $1,009,000 37% 424 -37 $2,380 $244,463,962 13 Disney
2 Everybody Loves Somebody $1,000,000 333 $3,003 $1,000,000 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion
3 Fences $755,000 4% 560 106 $1,348 $55,101,969 10 Paramount
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $746,000 -50% 435 -494 $1,715 $528,557,468 10 Disney
5 Sing (2016) $711,000 -58% 561 -918 $1,267 $266,642,105 9 Universal
6 Moonlight (2016) $628,913 19% 455 104 $1,382 $21,252,307 18 A24
7 The Founder $417,000 -42% 253 -201 $1,648 $11,955,584 5 Weinstein Company
8 xXx: The Return of Xander Cage $400,000 -74% 435 -743 $920 $44,268,346 5 Paramount
9 Jolly LLB 2 $330,000 -57% 166 -7 $1,988 $1,394,226 2 FIP
10 Arrival $305,000 -32% 329 58 $927 $99,907,270 15 Paramount
11 Patriots Day $255,000 -26% 257 -89 $992 $31,382,453 9 CBS Films / Lionsgate
12 Toni Erdmann $217,876 82% 102 53 $2,136 $953,171 9 Sony Pictures Classics
13 Monster Trucks $190,000 -70% 230 -612 $826 $32,589,867 6 Paramount
14 Sleepless $178,312 -61% 152 -233 $1,173 $20,541,511 6 Open Road
15 Jackie $147,000 -24% 130 -19 $1,131 $13,497,123 12 Fox Searchlight
16 20th Century Women $134,500 -30% 115 -12 $1,170 $5,298,258 8 A24
17 Doctor Strange $129,000 -31% 136 -35 $949 $232,387,391 16 Disney
18 Why Him? $68,000 -37% 123 -24 $553 $59,358,427 9 Fox
19 Gold (2016) $51,000 -64% 107 -108 $477 $7,149,879 4 The Weinstein Company / Dimension

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 A United Kingdom $270,000 306% 45 41 $6,000 $360,142 2 Fox Searchlight
2 Paterson $148,189 -15% 64 -6 $2,315 $1,522,530 8 Bleecker Street
3 Hacksaw Ridge $105,000 4% 87 -40 $1,207 $66,723,703 16 Lionsgate
4 KEDi $78,500 96% 7 6 $11,214 $142,959 2 Oscilloscope Laboratories
5 Elle (2016) $67,723 9% 43 -14 $1,575 $2,127,631 15 Sony Pictures Classics
6 The Red Turtle $65,793 -4% 36 7 $1,828 $434,948 5 Sony Pictures Classics
7 Julieta $56,522 -38% 31 -32 $1,823 $1,268,720 9 Sony Pictures Classics
8 Silence $50,000 -24% 72 17 $694 $7,060,645 9 Paramount
9 Un Padre No Tan Padre $45,000 -71% 36 -81 $1,250 $2,048,585 4 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films.
10 The Comedian $33,088 -84% 41 -571 $807 $1,626,709 3 Sony Pictures Classics
11 The Eagle Huntress $22,656 -20% 28 -6 $809 $3,025,813 16 Sony Pictures Classics
12 Land of Mine $15,392 12% 5 2 $3,078 $44,985 2 Sony Pictures Classics
13 Mr. Gaga: A True Story of Love and Dance $8,438 -65% 3 -3 $2,813 $96,456 3 Abramorama
14 From Nowhere $7,000 2 $3,500 $7,000 1 FilmRise
Jesse Rifkin

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Mike February 19, 2017

    “Great Wall Trumps Other Debuts” — I see what you did there.

    Reply

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