Weekend Predictions: 'Broken City', 'The Last Stand' & 'Mama'

on January 16, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff
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jan18.pngThree new films go into wide release this weekend as part of the extended 4-day weekend in honor of Martin Luther King Day (Monday). Broken City, The Last Stand and Mama will each debut on Friday, January 18.

Broken City

PROS:

- Mark Wahlberg has a reputation for being able to exceed expectations at the box office recently. Last January's Contraband particularly comes to mind.
- The added appeal of Russell Crowe and Catherine Zeta-Jones, while beyond their peak as draws, could play a role too. 

CONS:

- Competition for the adult audience is stiff right now with Oscar nominees getting a boost.
- Opening against The Last Stand will cut into its potential.
- Twitter and Flixster activity have been lacking. 

The Last Stand

PROS:

- Arnold's return to a leading role will entice his fans.
- The film's early critical response is better than many expected. Could this sway some last minute viewers? 

CONS:

- Again, current market competition limits any potential breakout.
- The Expendables 2 opened softer than expected last summer despite heavy marketing that featured Arnold and a number of other action stars.
- Social media activity has been slow. 

Mama

PROS:

- The PG-13 rating guarantees a teenage audience's ability to show up.
- Recent horror breakouts, namely 2012's The Devil Inside, give the genre a strong track record on opening weekend.
- Guillermo del Toro's name has been featured heavily in the marketing which will at least bring out some of his niche fan base.
- Jessica Chastain is riding a wave of buzz thanks to her award-winning presence in last week's #1 film, Zero Dark Thirty. Could there be some spillover to Mama for her growing fan base? 

CONS:

- Facing two new openers plus existing competition is more than Devil Inside faced last year when it opened January practically by itself.
- Did Texas Chainsaw 3D dilute any of the demand for another horror flick so soon? 

Check out our 4-day weekend predictions for these films and the rest of the top 12 in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Mama Jan 18, 2013 Universal
$19,300,000 $19,300,000
Zero Dark Thirty Dec 19, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$19,000,000 $57,500,000
Broken City Jan 18, 2013 Fox
$15,800,000 $15,800,000
Silver Linings Playbook Nov 16, 2012 Weinstein Company
$12,500,000 $56,500,000
Gangster Squad Jan 11, 2013 Warner Bros.
$12,000,000 $35,300,000
The Last Stand Jan 18, 2013 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $11,000,000
A Haunted House Jan 11, 2013 Open Road
$10,900,000 $32,500,000
Django Unchained Dec 25, 2012 Weinstein Company
$10,000,000 $140,300,000
Les Miserables (2012) Dec 25, 2012 Universal
$8,500,000 $131,000,000
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dec 14, 2012 Warner Bros. / New Line
$7,800,000 $288,800,000
Lincoln Nov 9, 2012 Disney / DreamWorks
$6,200,000 $161,400,000
Parental Guidance Dec 25, 2012 Fox
$5,800,000 $67,800,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Broken City, The Last Stand, Mama
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