Three films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week: The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (opening Wednesday, August 21), The World's End, and You're Next (both opening on Friday, August 23).
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones
- Is performing far stronger on Facebook than either The Host or Beautiful Creatures were two months before their respective releases.
- Will debut against much weaker opening weekend competition than either The Host or Beautiful Creatures did.
- Screen Gems has a strong history with films aimed at teens and young adults.
- The over-saturation of young adult adaptations could take a toll on this as well.
- Opens just two weeks after Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters enters the marketplace.
- Could have its potential limited by direct competition from fellow Sony release One Direction: This Is Us, which will be released the following week.
The World's End
- The team of Simon Pegg and Nick Frost have steadily increased their drawing power at the box office over the years. 2011's Paul grossed $37.4 million domestically.
- Films starring Pegg and Frost typically display strong holding power. Opening the weekend before Labor Day could help out holding power further.
- Pegg and Frost may have a tougher time expanding their audience this time around, especially if there isn't much demand for another end of the world comedy after This Is The End.
- Likely won't receive the same level of marketing that Paul received.
- Lionsgate has a strong history of success with low budget horror films.
- While late August isn't a strong time for the box office in general, horror films often perform well at that time of year.
- The film's marketing could come across as feeling too similar to The Purge.
- Horror fans (especially younger ones) may pass on the film with Insidious Chapter 2 being released three weeks later.
- Opening against The Mortal Instruments and The World's End could limit potential of breaking out beyond horror buffs.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include Pacific Rim (down), Grown Ups (up), Turbo (up).
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|You're Next||Aug 23, 2013||Lionsgate
|The World's End||Aug 23, 2013||Focus
|The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones||Aug 21, 2013||Sony / Screen Gems
|Paranoia||Aug 16, 2013||Relativity Media
|The Butler||Aug 16, 2013||Weinstein Company
|Kick-Ass 2||Aug 16, 2013||Universal
|Jobs||Aug 16, 2013||Open Road
|Planes||Aug 9, 2013||Disney
|Elysium||Aug 9, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|We're the Millers||Aug 7, 2013||Warner Bros. / New Line
|Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters||Aug 7, 2013||Fox
|2 Guns||Aug 2, 2013||Universal
|The Smurfs 2||Jul 31, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Jul 26, 2013
Jul 19, 2013
|Red 2||Jul 19, 2013||Lionsgate / Summit
|The Conjuring||Jul 19, 2013||Warner Bros. / New Line
|Turbo||Jul 17, 2013||Fox / DreamWorks Animation
|Pacific Rim||Jul 12, 2013||Warner Bros.
|Grown Ups 2||Jul 12, 2013||Sony / Columbia
Despicable Me 2: $80 million/$365 million
The Lone Ranger: $37 million/$140 million
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain: $7 million/$25 million
* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.