BoxOffice adds four new films to our Long Range Forecast this week: Heaven Is For Real, Transcendence, A Haunted House 2 and Bears. Will they help April post healthy numbers or are they doomed to lack momentum due to the oncoming Summer season?
Heaven Is For Real
- The fact that it's based on a best-selling book helps quite a bit.
- Sony successfully turned Courageous--another film aimed at religious crowds--into a $35 million sleeper hit back in 2011, so they clearly know how to handle this kind of material.
- We're concerned that the one-two punch of Son of God in February and Noah in March will steal away the attention of religious moviegoers and leave little behind for Heaven is for Real.
- Star Greg Kinnear is far from a reliable draw.
- Some families may opt to see Bears instead.
- The first trailer is helping build buzz at a steady pace on Facebook and Twitter.
- Transcendence boasts one of the most impressive ensemble casts of the year.
- We're betting that first-time director Wally Pfister has learned more than a few tricks from Christopher Nolan after serving as cinematographer on many of his films.
- Star Johnny Depp is on a cold streak following Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger.
- It's possible that males 18-34--a big demo for this one--may just save their money until The Amazing Spider-Man 2 kicks off the summer season a few weeks later.
- The sci-fi genre is general is not very reliable.
A Haunted House 2
- The original's $40 million haul came as something of a surprise. It's clear that Marlan Wayans still has a loyal fanbase.
- Early to mid-April doesn't boast a lot of comedies, so competition in that area will be thin.
- The underwhelming performance of Scary Movie 5 last April is reason for concern. The horror-spoof genre could be running out of steam yet again.
- The film's marketing campaign makes A Haunted House 2 feel way too much like its predecessor. Redundancy isn't always a good thing.
- This one will be an easy choice for families with young children.
- 2012's Chimpanzee turned into a solid $28 million hit. It's possible that the Disneynature brand is growing.
- There are a lot of films aimed at families during the first four months of 2014, which means that Bears could hit a wall.
Check out our predictions for these films as well as others in the table below. Notable changes include Non-Stop (up), Son of God (up) and 300: Rise of an Empire (up).
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||First Weekend of Wide Release||Cumulative|
|A Haunted House 2||Apr 18, 2014||Open Road
|Bears||Apr 18, 2014||Disneynature
|Transcendence||Apr 17, 2014||Warner Bros.
|Heaven is for Real||Apr 16, 2014||Sony / TriStar
|Draft Day||Apr 11, 2014||Lionsgate / Summit
|St. Vincent||Apr 11, 2014||Weinstein Company
|Oculus||Apr 11, 2014||Relativity Media
|Rio 2||Apr 11, 2014||Fox
|Captain America: The Winter Soldier||Apr 4, 2014||Disney
|Sabotage (2014)||Mar 28, 2014||Open Road
|Noah||Mar 28, 2014||Paramount
|Muppets Most Wanted||Mar 21, 2014||Disney
|Divergent||Mar 21, 2014||Lionsgate / Summit
|Need For Speed||Mar 14, 2014||Disney / DreamWorks
|Bad Words||Mar 14, 2014||Focus
|Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club||Mar 14, 2014||Lionsgate
|Mr. Peabody & Sherman||Mar 7, 2014||Fox / DreamWorks Animation
|300: Rise of an Empire||Mar 7, 2014||Warner Bros.
|Non-Stop (2014)||Feb 28, 2014||Universal
|Son of God||Feb 28, 2014||Fox
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.