Long Range Forecast: 'Black Swan,' 'The King's Speech' and '127 Hours'

Featured Stories - on October 23, 2010 by Phil Contrino

127 Hours could turn out to be a breakout hit this fall

127hoursreview.pngThis week, we've decided to take a look at the commercial potential of some of this fall's strongest indie flicks.

127 Hours (November 5, limited)

Positives:
-
Coming off Slumdog Millionaire, director Danny Boyle is at the top of his game.
- James Franco is also on his way up in terms of drawing power.
Negatives:
-
The idea of watching a grown man chop his arm off may be too much for some moviegoers. There's no getting around it.
Bottom line: If Fox Searchlight can build a strong feeling of curiosity among moviegoers who aren't squeamish, then they could have a solid mid-range hit on their hands. A $30-$40 million cume is certainly possible.

The King's Speech (November 26, limited)

Positives:
- Tons of Oscar buzz for Colin Firth's lead performance.
- The Weinstein Company will put a lot of marketing muscle behind it.
Negatives:
- May be seen as too stuff and tradition for younger moviegoers.
- American audiences may have a tough time relating to the story.
Bottom Line: This is a film that needs all the Oscar attention it can get in order to find an audience. It could end up with $20-$25 million.

Black Swan (December 1, limited)

Positives:

- The trailer is incredibly well put together.
- Natalie Portman may help entice younger moviegoers.
Negatives:
- May be seen as too artsy.
- Director Darren Aronofsky's sensibilities aren't for everyone.
Bottom Line: Oscar buzz--mostly for Portman--should turn this into a must-see flick. It could end up in the range of $15-$20 million.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
True Grit (2010) Dec 25, 2010 Paramount
$11,000,000* $72,000,000
Gulliver's Travels (2010) Dec 22, 2010 Fox
$13,000,000 $58,000,000
Little Fockers Dec 22, 2010 Universal
$45,000,000 $220,000,000
Yogi Bear Dec 17, 2010 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $65,000,000
The Fighter Dec 17, 2010 Paramount
$12,000,000 $58,000,000
TRON Legacy Dec 17, 2010 Disney
$50,000,000 $195,000,000
How Do You Know Dec 17, 2010 Sony / Columbia
$16,000,000 $70,000,000
The Tourist Dec 10, 2010 Sony / Columbia
$34,000,000 $115,000,000
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader Dec 10, 2010 Fox
$36,000,000 $135,000,000
Love and Other Drugs Nov 24, 2010 Fox
$12,000,000 $40,000,000
Tangled Nov 24, 2010 Disney
$37,000,000 $140,000,000
Faster (2010) Nov 24, 2010 CBS
$14,000,000 $42,000,000
Burlesque Nov 24, 2010 Screen Gems
$9,000,000 $27,000,000
The Next Three Days Nov 19, 2010 Lionsgate
$19,000,000 $60,000,000
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I Nov 19, 2010 Warner Bros.
$112,000,000 $315,000,000
Morning Glory (2010) Nov 12, 2010 Paramount
$14,000,000 $42,000,000
Unstoppable (2010) Nov 12, 2010 Fox
$23,000,000 $65,000,000
Skyline Nov 12, 2010 Universal
$21,000,000 $60,000,000
Due Date Nov 5, 2010 Warner Bros.
$35,000,000 $120,000,000
For Colored Girls Nov 5, 2010 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $55,000,000
Megamind Nov 5, 2010 DreamWorks
$50,000,000 $170,000,000
Saw 3D Oct 29, 2010 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $37,000,000



*= two-day weekend

Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.

 

Tags: Black Swan, The King's Speech, 127 Hours

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