Weekend Predictions: 'Fast Five,' 'Prom,' 'Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil' and 'Dylan Dog: Dead of Night'
Featured Stories - on April 27, 2011 by Phil Contrino
The fifth installment of Universal's lucrative car racing franchise will have absolutely no problem fending off the competition at the box office this weekend.
Summer comes early for the movie industry thanks to Fast Five. Universal successfully reinvigorated the franchise in April 2009 with a $71 million debut frame and $155 million domestically—making it quite clear that moviegoers can't get enough of these films. Franchise anchors Vin Diesel and Paul Walker return, and Dwayne Johnson now joins the mix—an addition sure to please action junkies of all ages. Fast Five is one of the true safe bets of 2011.
According to Boxoffice.com's WebWatch, Fast Five holds a dominant 20.23% market share of opinions among unreleased films. The closest film is currently The Hangover Part II with 8.87%. That level of activity has "blockbuster" written all over it.
Facebook support for Fast Five has been incredibly healthy all week. The franchise's most active page has tacked on around 81,000 new likes since early Monday morning. That's quite impressive considering that nearly 5.1 million Facebook users already like the page. On Twitter, Fast Five is easily outpacing The Expendables and Jackass 3D.
As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Fast Five is responsible for 48% of daily sales as of 4 p.m. PT.
Look for Fast Five to bring in $76 million from about 3,500 locations during its debut frame.
Disney is betting that Prom will be able to deliver solid numbers based on an easy to digest high-concept premise. The teen comedy is opening without the benefit of any major box office draws. Prom will represent a nice bit of counter-programming to the testosterone fest that is Fast Five and it should rope in a healthy amount of female moviegoers under the age of 18.
Prom has a 5.59% market share of online opinions among unreleased films, which puts the film in fourth place and ahead of a slew of summer blockbusters that are heating up right now.
It comes as no surprise that Facebook activity for Prom is strong. The film's most active page has added around 50,000 new supporters since early Monday morning—a clear sign that teens are starting to gravitate to it. On Twitter, Prom is ahead of Charlie St. Cloud but it trails The Last Song when it comes to total tweets.
Prom looks poised for a $10.5 million opening at close to 2,700 locations.
Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil comes with the unenviable task of opening very close to two successful family-skewing flicks: HOP and Rio. Still, there's always at least some room at the box office for a film that can appeal to the whole family. The Weinstein Company release should manage a decent weekend in the shadow of Fast Five.
WebWatch data shows that Hoodwinked Too! clearly isn't expanding outside of its base of young fans. The animated flick boasts only a 1.57% market share of online opinions.
Facebook activity has been steady for Hoodwinked Too! over the last couple of weeks. The film's most active has added a respectable 1,000+ new supporters since early Monday morning. Hoodwinked Too! trails Gnomeo & Juliet, Rango and Mars Needs Moms on Twitter.
Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil should manage $9.0 million from around 2,500 locations during its debut frame.
Even though it isn't likely to crack the top 10, Dylan Dog: Dead of Night will have an impact at the box office this weekend. The film is aimed directly at the fanboy crowd, and it should attract a decent amount of males who aren't enticed by Fast Five. Look for a $2.5 million debut from around 1,000 locations.
Check out our top 10 predictions in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Fast Five||Apr 29, 2011||Universal
|Rio (2011)||Apr 15, 2011||Fox
|Prom||Apr 29, 2011||Disney
|Water For Elephants||Apr 22, 2011||Fox
|Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil||Apr 29, 2011||Weinstein Company
|Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family||Apr 22, 2011||Lionsgate
|HOP||Apr 1, 2011||Universal
|Soul Surfer||Apr 8, 2011||Sony / TriStar
|African Cats||Apr 22, 2011||Disneynature
|Insidious||Apr 1, 2011||FilmDistrict
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.