Long Range Forecast: 'Dark Shadows' and 'The Dictator'

Featured Stories - on March 17, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

forecast51112.jpgWe've added WB's Dark Shadows and Paramount's The Dictator to our Long Range Forecast this weekend. Both films are scheduled to open on May 11.

Dark Shadows

PROS:

- Tim Burton and Johnny Depp have a great track record together. 2010's Alice in Wonderland turned into a billion-dollar hit for Disney. Reaching even half of that would be a huge victory for Dark Shadows.
- Few actors are as big as Johnny Depp right nowhis drawing power is immense.
- Warner Bros. will put a lot of marketing muscle behind their first summer tentpole

CONS:

- Dark Shadows doesn't look nearly as commercially accessible as Alice in Wonderland. It might have a tough time reaching families.
- Adaptations of old television shows have a tendency to bomb. The Avengers, anyone? How about My Favorite Martian?
- The Twilight Saga has both started and put a damper on the recent vampire craze. Will audiences really want to see Johnny Depp as a vampire?

The Dictator

PROS:

- Has the advantage of being the first male-skewing comedy of the summer.
- Star Sacha Baron Cohen is a pro at generating publicity.
- Great exposure during the Super Bowl and the Oscars helped raise awareness in a big way.

CONS:

- Bruno left a bad taste in the mouth of many a viewer. People may not be so quick to forgive.
- Twitter awareness is not where it should be at this point in the release cycle.
- Cohen's schtick may have run its course. Maybe he should stick to juicy supporting turns like the one he had in Hugo. Also: What's up with the planned Freddie Mercury biopic?

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Dictator May 11, 2012 Paramount
$25,000,000 $70,000,000
Dark Shadows May 11, 2012 Warner Bros.
$40,000,000 $105,000,000
Marvel's The Avengers May 4, 2012 Disney
$155,000,000 $370,000,000
The Raven Apr 27, 2012 Relativity Media
$14,000,000 $42,000,000
The Pirates! Band of Misfits Apr 27, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$11,000,000 $40,000,000
Safe (2012) Apr 27, 2012 Lionsgate
$9,000,000 $23,000,000
The Five-Year Engagement Apr 27, 2012 Universal
$23,000,000 $88,000,000
Think Like a Man Apr 20, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$20,000,000 $53,000,000
Chimpanzee Apr 20, 2012 Disneynature
$6,000,000 $17,000,000
The Lucky One (2012) Apr 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$22,000,000 $58,000,000
The Cabin in the Woods Apr 13, 2012 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $25,000,000
The Three Stooges Apr 13, 2012 Fox
$14,000,000 $42,000,000
Lockout Apr 13, 2012 Open Road
$7,000,000 $19,000,000
American Reunion Apr 6, 2012 Universal
$33,000,000 $96,000,000
Titanic 3D Apr 4, 2012 Paramount
$44,000,000 $155,000,000
Mirror Mirror Mar 30, 2012 Relativity Media
$21,000,000 $60,000,000
Wrath of the Titans Mar 30, 2012 Warner Bros.
$42,000,000 $110,000,000
The Hunger Games Mar 23, 2012 Lionsgate
$115,000,000 $270,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Dark Shadows, The Dictator

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