Long Range Forecast: 'G.I. Joe: Retaliation', 'Magic Mike', 'Madea's Witness Protection', & 'People Like Us'

Featured Stories - on May 05, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

june29.pngWe've added four new releases to our Long Range Forecast this week: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Magic Mike, Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection, and People Like Us.

The last time the calendar fell on the same dates was in 2007 when Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard opened to $47 million and $33.4 million, respectively.  The latter opened on the preceding Wednesday.  The overall market gross for that pre-Independence Day weekend reached $155.4 million.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

PROS:

- Adding Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to a cast has recently proven to be of benefit in Fast Five and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.
- Channing Tatum is a bigger draw now than he was for the first film back in 2009, having starred in two of the top five films of 2012 so far (as of this writing).
- Opening before the July 4th holiday could help give it some extra traction.
- The shift in tone from the first film might attract older action fans and widen the demographic appeal.
- The trailers have been very well-received online.

CONS:

- While not universally hated, the first film isn't something that most have clamored for a sequel to.
- The marketing seems less kid-friendly, a huge change from the promotional tone of its predecessor.
- The kiddie audience that helped drive the first film will have a lot of other options in the marketplace: Brave and Madagascar 3 will already be in release, while The Amazing Spider-Man and Ice Age: Continental Drift will be hot on its heels.
- The extent of Channing Tatum's role in this sequel seems to be up in the air.  His female fans will likely opt to see Magic Mike instead.

Magic Mike

PROS:

- Channing Tatum is proving to be a real draw this year.
- 21 Jump Street being rated R certainly didn't hurt its box office performance.
- Any woman with a pulse is going to want to watch this movie, its as simple as that. 

CONS:

- Channing Tatum vs. Channing Tatum.
- Will men agree to see it after women agree to see G.I. Joe?
- Its biggest enemy is going to be the screen count and whether they cap it with a moderate release of 2,000 to 2,500 or go all in with 3,000+ (if its available given how busy the box office will be). 

Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection

PROS:

- Perry still has a reliable audience to draw upon, and this could hold slightly better than his previous films thanks to the summer release date.

CONS:

- This one's not adapted from a play.
- Its true that Perry's comedies usually perform better, but the fact that Good Deeds did so poorly is not a good sign for him -- especially since he has three movies slated for upcoming release.  Over-saturation could have an effect.

People Like Us

PROS:

- Against all the summer blockbusters, a smaller drama like this serves as fair counter-programming for adults looking to get away from louder, more explosive fare.
- The film marks the directorial debut of Alex Kurtzman who, alongside writing and producing partner Roberto Orci, has produced a solid resume over the years.
- The recognizable ensemble cast could help draw the casual interest of a small audience. 

CONS:

- Competition is heavy that weekend and neither Pine or Banks have proven to be draws on their own yet.
- Screen count could be an issue.
- The plot seems potentially off-putting for mainstream audiences.
- Kurtzman's (and Orci's) previous successes were cut from the blockbuster cloth that this film is clearly not a part of.
- Women will go see Magic Mike over this.  It's that simple. 

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
People Like Us Jun 29, 2012 Disney
$6,500,000 $23,000,000
Magic Mike Jun 29, 2012 N/A
$22,000,000 $78,000,000
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection Jun 29, 2012 Lionsgate
$19,000,000 $43,000,000
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Jun 29, 2012 Paramount
$48,000,000 $148,000,000
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Jun 22, 2012 Fox
$21,000,000 $53,000,000
Brave Jun 22, 2012 Disney
$58,000,000 $220,000,000
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Jun 22, 2012 Focus
$13,000,000 $49,000,000
Rock of Ages Jun 15, 2012 Warner Bros.
$32,000,000 $120,000,000
That's My Boy Jun 15, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$30,000,000 $85,000,000
Prometheus Jun 8, 2012 Fox
$58,000,000 $200,000,000
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted Jun 8, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks
$42,000,000 $140,000,000
Snow White and the Huntsman Jun 1, 2012 Universal
$60,000,000 $165,000,000
Men in Black 3 May 25, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$90,000,000* $205,000,000
Chernobyl Diaries May 25, 2012 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000* $31,000,000
What to Expect When You're Expecting May 18, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $70,000,000
Battleship May 18, 2012 Universal
$48,000,000 $135,000,000
The Dictator May 16, 2012 Paramount
$20,000,000† $65,000,000
Dark Shadows May 11, 2012 Warner Bros.
$35,000,000 $92,000,000

* = 4-day opening (Friday through Monday)
† = 3-day opening (excludes Wednesday and Thursday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, People Like Us, Magic Mike, Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection

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