Weekend Predictions: 'Men in Black 3' and 'Chernobyl Diaries'
Featured Stories - on May 23, 2012
Men in Black 3 is poised to finally end The Avengers' run in 1st place—but will the sci-fi flick be a successful film compared to its predecessors?
When adjusting for inflation, Men in Black's $250.7 million domestic haul from 1997 shoots up to $427.6 million and 2002's Men in Black 2 goes from $190.4 million to $257 million—those are big shoes for Men in Black 3 to fill. MiB3 also faces the daunting task of opening nearly 10 years after MiB2. Many franchises fail miserably with less of a gap between films, so that could mean trouble unless a big wave of nostalgia hits.
With a plot that involves traveling back in time to the 60s, MiB3 isn't doing a whole lot to modernize the franchise. Many teenagers may be unfamiliar with the property, and missing such a crucial group of moviegoers can be disastrous for any summer blockbuster. Still, Will Smith remains a bankable star and the franchise is bound to have plenty of die-hard fans left. MiB3 won't match its predecessors, but it's not going to be a financial disaster either.
Men in Black 3 looks poised to bring in $73 million over the extended weekend from around 4,000 locations.
Chernobyl Diaries will try to cash in on the lucrative found-footage trend. Unfortunately, plenty of moviegoers felt ripped-off by The Devil Inside earlier this year, and those negative feelings could extend to Chernobyl. Chernobyl will also be hurt by a very competitive market. Horror films are primarily aimed at males 18-34—the same demographic that Avengers, Battleship and Men in Black 3 will all be gunning for.
Chernobyl Diaries should take in $13 million over four days from around 2,450 locations.
Check out the rest of our top 10 predictions for the four-day holiday frame in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||4-Day Weekend ||Cumulative|
|Men in Black 3||May 25, 2012||Sony / Columbia
|Marvel's The Avengers||May 4, 2012||Disney
|Battleship||May 18, 2012||Universal
|The Dictator||May 16, 2012||Paramount
|Chernobyl Diaries||May 25, 2012||Warner Bros.
|Dark Shadows||May 11, 2012||Warner Bros.
|What to Expect When You're Expecting||May 18, 2012||Lionsgate
|The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel||May 4, 2012||Fox Searchlight
|The Hunger Games||Mar 23, 2012||Lionsgate
|Think Like a Man||Apr 20, 2012||Sony / Screen Gems
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.