Long Range Forecast: 'The Bourne Legacy', 'Total Recall', & 'Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days'

Featured Stories - on June 09, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

aug3.pngThis week, we've added three August 3rd releases to our Long Range Forecast: Universal's The Bourne Legacy, Sony's Total Recall re-make, and Fox's Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days.

The Bourne Legacy

PROS:

- The franchise name should still attract attention, even if falsely misleading people into thinking Matt Damon will show up at some point.
- Jeremy Renner has gained considerable awareness through his turns in The Hurt Locker, Marvel's The Avengers, and especially Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol.  He has a solid appeal with women as well, which won't hurt.
- Not having Damon might not necessarily prevent it from having a decently sized audience either, especially since Damon isn't always a sure-fire hit on his own.  The James Bond franchise has successfully replaced its lead actor many times before.
- The relative lack of non-comic book action films this summer could help this out.
- The Bourne Identity opened to $27.1 million ten years ago, and while the fanbase has since grown by leaps and bounds, this could be more backloaded as many fans might be apprehensive of the new direction. 

CONS:

- The James Bond franchise replaced its lead actors, but never its lead character.
- Damon's absence could put off some audiences.  Its the one role where he's been a bona fide draw on a large scale.
- Opening two weeks after The Dark Knight Rises means expectations of an action film should be considerably high.
- If Total Recall keeps its release date, opening against one another will eat into the audience.
- Both X-Men: First Class and the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean dropped over 40% in opening weekend ticket sales from their predecessors. First Class also dropped more than 56% in opening weekend ticket sales, and 49% in total tickets, from X-Men: The Last Stand.
- Opening two weeks before The Expendables 2 could lead to it being more front-loaded than either The Bourne Supremacy or The Bourne Ultimatum

Total Recall

PROS:

- This could pick up the slack after opening weekend among any audiences disappointed by The Bourne Legacy and/or that film's absence of Damon.  Quality has to be there for Recall too, though.
- Its likely to get a huge marketing push once The Dark Knight Rises is out.  Not that that always helps, of course.
- One has to think at least some fans of the original film will want to see this.  The question is: will anybody else? 

CONS:

- Arnold-less sequels and remakes don't usually fare too well (see Terminator Salvation and Conan the Barbarian).
- Colin Farrell isn't exactly a reliable box office draw.
- The last time action flicks tried to open in August after a Chris Nolan-directed Batman movie dominated the late summer market in 2008, we got the performances of Babylon A.D. ($22.5 million) and another remake in Death Race ($36.3 million).
- Opening against The Bourne Legacy and in between The Dark Knight Rises and The Expendables 2 makes for extremely tough direct competition.  With a large budget on the line, this is probably one of the remaining contenders for a last minute release date change before August rolls around.
- Trailer buzz has been relatively sparse.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days

PROS:

- The second film in the franchise retained a respectable portion of the first film's audience, even increasing slightly in its opening weekend.
- No other family films opening the following weekend could help slightly, especially since the second film (Rodrick Rules) had to deal with Hop in its second frame last spring.

CONS:

- Families may be looking for something new by this time, but this might not be their first choice of the month.
- With three films in two-and-a-half years, the franchise may be hard-pressed to build up its audience at this point. 

The only notable change on our forecast this week is a revision on That's My Boy.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Total Recall (2012) Aug 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$21,000,000 $60,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Aug 3, 2012 Fox
$19,000,000 $52,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 3, 2012 Universal
$40,000,000 $130,000,000
The Watch Jul 27, 2012 20th Century Fox
$26,000,000 $86,000,000
Step Up Revolution Jul 27, 2012 Summit
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
The Dark Knight Rises Jul 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$186,000,000 $520,000,000
Ice Age: Continental Drift Jul 13, 2012 Fox
$59,000,000 $200,000,000
Savages Jul 6, 2012 Universal
$14,000,000 $45,000,000
Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D Jul 5, 2012 Paramount
$16,000,000† $50,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man Jul 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$64,000,000† $233,000,000
Magic Mike Jun 29, 2012 Warner Bros.
$22,000,000 $78,000,000
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection Jun 29, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000 $45,000,000
Ted (2012) Jun 29, 2012 Universal
$19,000,000 $65,000,000
People Like Us Jun 29, 2012 Disney
$6,500,000 $23,000,000
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Jun 22, 2012 Fox
$18,000,000 $45,000,000
Brave Jun 22, 2012 Disney
$58,000,000 $225,000,000
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Jun 22, 2012 Focus
$13,000,000 $49,000,000
Rock of Ages Jun 15, 2012 Warner Bros.
$35,000,000 $135,000,000
That's My Boy Jun 15, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$28,000,000 $80,000,000

† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: The Bourne Legacy, Total Recall (2012), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days

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