Long Range Forecast: 'The Expendables 2', 'ParaNorman, 'Sparkle', & 'The Odd Life of Timothy Green'

Featured Stories - on June 23, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

aug17.pngThis week, we've added four new releases to our Long Range Forecast.  The Odd Life of Timothy Green is currently scheduled to open on Wednesday, August 15 while The Expendables 2, ParaNorman, and Sparkle will open on Friday, August 17.

The Odd Life of Timothy Green

PROS:

- The Disney brand name.
- Could generate good word of mouth.
 

CONS:

- Could be the type of film that neither kids nor adults really want to see.
- Not based on a book; no built-in audience for this.
- Jennifer Garner has a spotty box office history.

The Expendables 2

PROS:

- The first film seemed to be a crowd pleaser.
- Likely being the last big film of the summer could be an advantage.
- Adding Norris and Van Damme on top of expanded roles for Arnold and Bruce should count for something among fans. 

CONS:

- Competition from the other early August releases aimed at action fans and adults could offset the benefit it gets from the new additions to the cast.

ParaNorman

PROS:

- Coraline was well received back in 2009.
- No new family films hit the marketplace until September 14 when Finding Nemo 3D opens.  Should lead to back-loading.
- This is the first kiddie flick to open since Ice Age: Continental Drift over one month earlier, so families will probably be looking for something fresh.

CONS:

- The darker tone and later summer release should hold it back from breaking out (ala Monster House in 2006).
- Potential demand could be limited from families already having seen Madagascar 3, Brave and Ice Age: Continental Drift this summer.
- As a Focus release, it very likely won't have as large a location count as typical animated films do.

Sparkle

PROS:

- Could have sleeper potential, depending in part on whether or not fans want to see Whitney Houston's final performance.
- There have been very few films with predominantly African-American casts this summer.
- The soundtrack could prove to be a big help.

CONS:

- The nearly 16-year gap between it and The Preacher's Wife.
- Houston's fanbase will likely lead to front-loading.
- Could have trouble drawing in male moviegoers.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Amazing Spider-Man, Magic Mike, Ted, Madea's Witness Protection, People Like Us, The Dark Knight Rises, The Watch, The Campaign, and Hope Springs.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Sparkle (2012) Aug 17, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$14,000,000 $38,000,000
The Expendables 2 Aug 17, 2012 Lionsgate
$37,000,000 $105,000,000
ParaNorman Aug 17, 2012 Focus
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
The Odd Life of Timothy Green Aug 15, 2012 Disney
$7,500,000† $28,000,000
The Campaign Aug 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$31,000,000 $105,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 10, 2012 Universal
$40,000,000 $130,000,000
Hope Springs (2012) Aug 10, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$24,000,000 $106,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Aug 3, 2012 Fox
$19,000,000 $52,000,000
The Watch Jul 27, 2012 20th Century Fox
$29,000,000 $95,000,000
Step Up Revolution Jul 27, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
The Dark Knight Rises Jul 20, 2012 Warner Bros.
$190,000,000 $530,000,000
Ice Age: Continental Drift Jul 13, 2012 Fox
$59,000,000 $200,000,000
Savages Jul 6, 2012 Universal
$14,000,000 $45,000,000
Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D Jul 5, 2012 Paramount
$16,000,000† $50,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man Jul 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$64,000,000† $230,000,000
Ted (2012) Jun 29, 2012 Universal
$23,000,000 $85,000,000
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection Jun 29, 2012 Lionsgate
$19,000,000 $43,000,000
People Like Us Jun 29, 2012 Disney
$7,000,000 $25,000,000
Magic Mike Jun 29, 2012 Warner Bros.
$25,000,000 $83,000,000

† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: The Expendables 2, The Odd Life of Timothy Green, ParaNorman, Sparkle

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