Long Range Forecast: 'The House at the End of the Street', 'Dredd' & 'End of Watch'

Featured Stories - on July 27, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

sep21.pngThis week, we've added three new releases to our Long Range Forecast.  The House at the End of the Street, Dredd and End of Watch are all scheduled to open on Friday, September 21.

The House at the End of the Street

PROS:

- The presence of Jennifer Lawrence, post-Hunger Games.   Daniel Radcliffe recently had post-Harry Potter success with The Woman in Black ($20.9 million opening).
- Should appeal to females and younger moviegoers much more than the weekend's other new releases.

CONS:

- Arrives on the scene shortly after The Apparition and The Possession exit, so the audience might not necessarily be starved for another similar movie.

Dredd

PROS:

- Early reviews have been positive, which could help people forget about the 1995 film.
- Holding power could be better than normal for its genre as a result of reviews and word of mouth, although Looper opening the following weekend could prevent that.

CONS:

- ...Not that many people saw the 1995 film to begin with, even when taking into account ticket price inflation.
- Dredd is a fringe character with hardly any mainstream recognition.
- Faces competition during opening weekend from End of Watch and the second weekend of Resident Evil: Retribution.

End of Watch

PROS:

- Police dramas have a habit of performing better than expected, especially on opening weekend.
- Could prove to be the mainstream option between it and Dredd.
- Americans love patriotic films, as evidenced by the breakout status of this year's Act of Valor.

CONS:

- This doesn't have the same level of star power that many previous police dramas have had.
- The level of competition from the weekend's other openers could prevent it from getting noticed upfront.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Bourne Legacy, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, Hope Springs, Lawless, Premium Rush and Total Recall.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
$14,000,000 $39,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
$22,000,000 $63,000,000
Dredd Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
Finding Nemo 3D Sep 14, 2012 Disney
$24,000,000 $68,000,000
Resident Evil: Retribution Sep 14, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$23,000,000 $52,000,000
The Possession Aug 31, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000† $40,000,000
Lawless Aug 29, 2012 Weinstein Company
$14,000,000† $35,000,000
Premium Rush Aug 24, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$11,000,000 $35,000,000
The Apparition Aug 24, 2012 Warner Bros.
$14,000,000 $33,000,000
Sparkle (2012) Aug 17, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$14,000,000 $38,000,000
The Expendables 2 Aug 17, 2012 Lionsgate
$37,000,000 $105,000,000
ParaNorman Aug 17, 2012 Focus
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 10, 2012 Universal
$38,000,000 $120,000,000
The Campaign Aug 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$30,000,000 $100,000,000
Hope Springs (2012) Aug 8, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$22,000,000† $110,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Aug 3, 2012 Fox
$19,000,000 $51,000,000
Total Recall (2012) Aug 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$18,000,000 $52,000,000

† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Dredd, The House at the End of the Street, End of Watch

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