Long Range Forecast: 'Trouble With the Curve', 'Looper', 'Hotel Transylvania' and 'Won't Back Down'

Featured Stories - on August 04, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

sep28.pngOur Long Range Forecast this week welcomes two four new additions.  First, Trouble With the Curve has been added retroactively due to its release date switch to September 21.  Meanwhile, Looper, Hotel Transylvania and Won't Back Down are scheduled to open on September 28.

Trouble with the Curve

PROS:

- Eastwood, given the right material, can absolutely nail it with older audiences.
- The flick opens in the same slot as Moneyball last year, just in time for baseball's playoff season.
- Baseball movies skewing to older audiences have traditionally done well enough.
- Amy Adams has a few diverse and strong performances under her belt lately and her own fanbase is growing.

CONS:

- Baseball movies are typically hard sells to mainstream moviegoers -- Moneyball notwithstanding, which had some extra help from Brad Pitt's presence and Oscar buzz.
- Eastwood can be hit or miss - his last three films have received lukewarm word of mouth by fans and critics alike in J. Edgar, Hereafter and Invictus.
- It could meet up with competition from End Of Watch among older male moviegoers.

Looper

PROS:

- Bruce Willis is still a solid draw, albeit much less than in his heyday.
- The sci-fi time travel genre can be very successful at the box office when given the right script.
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt has a growing following of sorts thanks to (500) Days of Summer and Christopher Nolan's last two films.  With The Dark Knight Rises and August's own Premium Rush, he'll be even more on the public's mind than before.

CONS:

- There's some déjà vu to 2009's Surrogates for Willis.  That sci-fi film had the same September slot three years ago and underwhelmed at the box office.
- Despite growing critical praise, Gordon-Levitt is still proving himself as a lead and has yet to top-line a film that opened above $10 million.

Hotel Transylvania

PROS:

- September has delivered a few hits in recent years for animated films.
- Sony also distributed Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs in the same slot 3 years ago to great success.
- Very recognizable voice talent attached won't hurt its draw, especially between Adam Sandler and Selena Gomez.

CONS:

- Finding Nemo 3D opens two weeks prior and could have a huge opening thanks to starved family audiences.  If its legs extend further than Beauty and the Beast's did earlier this year, that's bad news for this movie.
- September has also delivered its share of animated clunkers -- most recently being Legend of the Guardians.
- FrankenWeenie opening one week later and boasting the one-two punch of Disney's and Tim Burton's names could spell trouble for Hotel's legs. 

Won't Back Down

PROS:

- Solid cast with a strong story that should appeal to female adults -- particularly mothers of school-aged children.
- The flick is produced by the makers of Waiting For "Superman", which turned a lot of heads and drummed up considerable buzz upon its release.
- It doesn't have to break records to turn a tidy profit. 

CONS:

- The story's material simply isn't going to translate into box office dynamite.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Bourne LegacyHope Springs and The Odd Life of Timothy Green.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
$7,000,000 $23,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$21,000,000 $65,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$22,000,000 $68,000,000
Dredd Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
$14,000,000 $39,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
$22,000,000 $63,000,000
Trouble with the Curve Sep 21, 2012 Warner Bros.
$15,000,000 $52,000,000
Resident Evil: Retribution Sep 14, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$23,000,000 $52,000,000
Finding Nemo 3D Sep 14, 2012 Disney
$24,000,000 $68,000,000
The Words Sep 7, 2012 CBS Films
$10,000,000 $29,000,000
The Possession Aug 31, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000† $40,000,000
Lawless Aug 29, 2012 Weinstein Company
$14,000,000† $35,000,000
The Apparition Aug 24, 2012 Warner Bros.
$14,000,000 $33,000,000
Premium Rush Aug 24, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$11,000,000 $35,000,000
Hit and Run Aug 22, 2012 Open Road
$8,000,000 $19,000,000
Sparkle (2012) Aug 17, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$14,000,000 $38,000,000
ParaNorman Aug 17, 2012 Focus
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
The Expendables 2 Aug 17, 2012 Lionsgate
$37,000,000 $105,000,000
The Odd Life of Timothy Green Aug 15, 2012 Disney
$9,000,000 $35,000,000
The Campaign Aug 10, 2012 Warner Bros.
$30,000,000 $100,000,000
The Bourne Legacy Aug 10, 2012 Universal
$35,000,000 $115,000,000

† = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Trouble With The Curve, Looper, Hotel Transylvania, Won't Back Down

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