Long Range Forecast: 'Taken 2', 'Frankenweenie', 'Sinister', & 'Pitch Perfect'

Featured Stories - on August 10, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

oct5.pngWe've added four new films to our Long Range Forecast this week: Taken 2, Frankenweenie, Sinister and Pitch Perfect.  All four flicks are presently slated for release on Friday, October 5.

Taken 2

PROS:

- The first film was a genuine surprise hit that moviegoers really liked, especially judging by its holding power.
- Not having to deal with the Super Bowl (as the first film did) and this being a first sequel could both help build upon the $24.7 million opening weekend performance of Taken.
- Liam Neeson delivered solid post-Taken opening weekend performances with both The Unknown and The Grey.

CONS:

- The first film caught lightning in a bottle at the box office. It can be very hard to duplicate that type of success as a sequel.
- There's little doubt that holding power after opening weekend will be much softer this time around. 

Frankenweenie

PROS:

- Tim Burton has a built-in audience and this film should appeal to that audience greatly.
- Expanding upon that, Burton's and Disney's most recent collaboration helped result in the mega-hit Alice In Wonderland.
- Disney's experience in marketing family fare.
- Halloween and the lack of direct competition after it opens could lead to solid holding power.

CONS:

- Burton's style and black and white films are very tough sells to family audiences.
- Opens only one week after Hotel Transylvania, which could limit opening weekend demand a bit.
- While the Burton-Disney connection helps, will anyone outside of Burton's built-in fanbase want to see it?
- As recently seen with both Dark Shadows and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, there is a good chance online signs could be inflated for this.

Sinister

PROS:

- The strong history of Lionsgate when it comes to marketing horror films and thrillers.

CONS:

- Will moviegoers want to take a chance on a film that investiages found footage film, especially when they can wait two weeks to see Paranormal Activity 4?
- Opening up against Taken 2 makes for a tough challenge as well.

Pitch Perfect

PROS:

- Could serve as an alternative choice for female moviegoers and teenage moviegoers.

CONS:

- Anna Kendrick is untested as a draw at the box office on her own.
- Unlikely to appeal beyond its target demos given the number of other choices that will be in the marketplace at this time.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Expendables 2, ParaNorman, Sparkle, The Odd Life of Timothy Green and Trouble with the Curve.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Sinister Oct 5, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$10,000,000 $25,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
$20,000,000 $74,000,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
$34,000,000 $102,000,000
Pitch Perfect Oct 5, 2012 Universal
$6,000,000 $17,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$22,000,000 $68,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$21,000,000 $65,000,000
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
$7,000,000 $23,000,000
Dredd Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
$14,000,000 $39,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
$22,000,000 $63,000,000
Trouble with the Curve Sep 21, 2012 Warner Bros.
$16,000,000 $60,000,000
Finding Nemo 3D Sep 14, 2012 Disney
$24,000,000 $68,000,000
Resident Evil: Retribution Sep 14, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
$23,000,000 $52,000,000
The Words Sep 7, 2012 CBS Films
$10,000,000 $29,000,000
The Possession Aug 31, 2012 Lionsgate
$20,000,000† $40,000,000
Lawless Aug 29, 2012 Weinstein Company
$14,000,000† $35,000,000
The Apparition Aug 24, 2012 Warner Bros.
$14,000,000 $33,000,000
Premium Rush Aug 24, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$11,000,000 $35,000,000
Hit and Run Aug 22, 2012 Open Road
$8,000,000 $19,000,000
ParaNorman Aug 17, 2012 Focus
$12,000,000 $42,000,000
The Expendables 2 Aug 17, 2012 Lionsgate
$40,000,000 $107,000,000
Sparkle (2012)
The Odd Life of Timothy Green 
Aug 17, 2012
Aug 15, 2012 
Sony / TriStar
Disney
$13,000,000
$12,000,000 
$33,000,000
$52,000,000 

† = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Taken 2, Frankenweenie, Sinister, Pitch Perfect

1 Comment

  • BoxOfficeWeekend on 11 August 2012

    The Possession will exceed $40 million cumulative. It will give exorcism fans what The Devil Inside left out. Depending on The Apparition performance in the previous weekend, we expect The Possession to break $20 million the first weekend. The movie trailer is eerie. There is high demand for exorcism movies since this is the fifth to reach movie theaters in the past 7 years. The movie is loosely based on truth.

    http://www.BoxOfficeWeekend.com

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