Long Range Forecast: 'Cloud Atlas', 'The Big Wedding', 'Silent Hill: Revelation 3D', 'Chasing Mavericks', & 'Fun Size'
Featured Stories - on September 01, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Five new releases have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week. Cloud Atlas, The Big Wedding, Silent Hill: Revelation 3D, Chasing Mavericks and Fun Size are all scheduled for wide release on Friday, October 26 during the lead-in weekend to the holiday box office season.
- The extended trailer for the film received very positive reactions online.
- A high-profile film with a unique feel to it has the potential to go over well in a year full of sequels.
- Being based on a novel typically helps.
- The unique feel can easily turn into something too high concept and/or esoteric for mainstream audiences.
- Opening after several consecutive weekends of higher profile films and one week before the holiday box office season begins could strongly diminish demand.
- Will high interest levels among the online film community transfer over to more mainstream moviegoers in this case?
- A high-profile filmmaker would usually go a long way toward selling this kind of film, but the Wachowskis were never able to capitalize on their brief popularity following The Matrix. Speed Racer only made matters worse.
- The combination of Tom Hanks, Hugh Grant, Halle Berry and the Wachowskis could come across as being a bit "too 1990s".
The Big Wedding
- A collective cast that includes Robert De Niro, Amanda Seyfried, Katherine Heigl, Diane Keaton and Robin Williams.
- Wedding-themed films tend to have at least respectable showings at the box office.
- DeNiro has found success with wedding- and family-themed films in the past with the Meet the Parents franchise.
- A non-wedding season release date aside, the family-driven concept has sleeper status written all over it.
- Not the best release date choice given the proximity to Halloween and what will be a crowded marketplace at the time.
- De Niro, Williams and even Heigl have all seen better days when it comes to their box office drawing power.
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D
- The first film was a very solid performer back in 2006.
- Will have the advantage of 3D ticket premiums this time around.
- The series is based on the popular video game console series which is about to see its 9th title released. It has sold over 7.5 million units across all platforms.
- There was five years between the first and second Resident Evil films.
- It has been over six years since the first film. That long of a wait typically isn't good for a sequel.
- Audiences in the mood for scares are sure to choose Paranormal Activity 4 in its second weekend instead.
- By comparison, the Resident Evil video game series has sold 50 million units across all platforms.
- Sony, who distributed the first film and is very proven when it comes to similar films, won't be distributing this time around.
- Soul Surfer exceeded expectations last year.
- Could be a crowd-pleaser with Curtis Hanson (8 Mile, L.A. Confidential) and Michael Apted (The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, The World Is Not Enough) as co-directors.
- Gerard Butler hasn't proven to be much of a box office draw post-300.
- Will those not interested in surfing have any interest in seeing the film?
- Nickelodeon Movies has a solid history at the box office.
- Features Victoria Justice, who has a growing following similar to Miley Cyrus or Miranda Cosgrove. She could draw tweens all on her own.
- In trying to appeal to both teens and children, the film may ultimately turn off both teens and parents.
- Many teens in the mood for a Halloween film will no doubt want to see Paranormal Activity 4 instead.
- Many families will have already have spent money on Frankenweenie and/or Hotel Transylvania. Those who haven't will still have those options to choose from instead.
Notable changes on our forecast this week include The Words and Pitch Perfect.
Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|The Big Wedding||Oct 26, 2012||Lionsgate
|Chasing Mavericks||Oct 26, 2012||Fox
|Fun Size||Oct 26, 2012||Paramount
|Cloud Atlas||Oct 26, 2012||Warner Bros.
|Silent Hill: Revelation 3D||Oct 26, 2012||Open Road
|Killing Them Softly||Oct 19, 2012||Weinstein Company
|Alex Cross||Oct 19, 2012||Lionsgate / Summit
|Paranormal Activity 4||Oct 19, 2012||Paramount
|Seven Psychopaths||Oct 12, 2012||CBS Films
|Argo||Oct 12, 2012||Warner Bros.
|Here Comes the Boom||Oct 12, 2012||Sony / Columbia
|Sinister||Oct 5, 2012||Lionsgate / Summit
|Taken 2||Oct 5, 2012||Fox
|Frankenweenie||Oct 5, 2012||Disney
|Pitch Perfect||Oct 5, 2012||Universal
|Looper||Sep 28, 2012||Sony / TriStar
|Hotel Transylvania||Sep 28, 2012||Sony / Columbia
|Won't Back Down||Sep 28, 2012||Fox
|End of Watch||Sep 21, 2012||Open Road
|Trouble with the Curve||Sep 21, 2012||Warner Bros.
|Dredd 3D||Sep 21, 2012||Lionsgate
|House at the End of the Street||Sep 21, 2012||Relativity Media
|Finding Nemo 3D||Sep 14, 2012||Disney
|Resident Evil: Retribution||Sep 14, 2012||Sony / Screen Gems
|The Words||Sep 7, 2012||CBS Films
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.