Long Range Forecast: 'The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2' & 'Lincoln'

Featured Stories - on September 22, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

nov16.pngThis week we've added two new films to our Long Range Forecast: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 and Steven Spielberg's Lincoln in its currently scheduled expansion.  Both films go into wide release on Friday, November 16.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2

PROS:

- Despite the previous film's slight box office decline, the franchise has displayed a reliable and mostly predictable track record.
- The finale factor. Harry Potter proved that franchises not conforming to the design of a trilogy can still see increases in audience with a pivotal film in the storyline.
- Rob-sten drama.

CONS:

- The hype outside the fan base for the finale doesn't yet seem to be there in the same way it was for Harry Potter's ending.
- Stewart has given Twilight fans another reason to dislike her. Could there be a die hard fan backlash against her? If so, does Pattinson's appeal still neutralize it for the final movie? (Probably.)

Lincoln

PROS:

- The trifecta of a hit: Steven Spielberg + one of the most respected and acclaimed actors working today + one of the most popular and beloved historical American figures. The ensemble cast should attract audiences as well.
- War Horse banked nearly $80 million with a less-than-high profile cast and less familiar or mainstream-friendly plot.
- Awards buzz could carry it long through December and January.
- Older audiences will be looking to this film in the midst of other holiday blockbuster fare.
- Online buzz seems excellent for a biographical drama and the early marketing campaign exudes a lot of confidence.

CONS:

- Spielberg or not, Abraham Lincoln or not... the film is *still* a historical drama and could easily under-perform without awards buzz.
- The film will need some aspect of a "crowd-pleaser" (ala 2010's The King Speech) to help it reach larger box office heights.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Hotel Transylvania, Looper, Pitch Perfect, Won't Back Down, Frankenweenie, Taken 2 and Fun Size.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 Nov 16, 2012 Lionsgate
$148,000,000 $294,000,000
Lincoln Nov 9, 2012 Disney / DreamWorks
$17,000,000 $94,000,000
Skyfall Nov 9, 2012 Sony
$76,000,000 $216,000,000
The Man With the Iron Fists Nov 2, 2012 Universal
$11,000,000 $26,000,000
Wreck-It Ralph Nov 2, 2012 Disney
$53,000,000 $175,000,000
Flight Nov 2, 2012 Paramount
$32,000,000 $98,000,000
Fun Size Oct 26, 2012 Paramount
$7,000,000 $17,000,000
Chasing Mavericks Oct 26, 2012 Fox
$6,000,000 $15,000,000
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Oct 26, 2012 Open Road
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
Cloud Atlas Oct 26, 2012 Warner Bros.
$23,000,000 $63,000,000
Paranormal Activity 4 Oct 19, 2012 Paramount
$45,000,000 $88,000,000
Alex Cross Oct 19, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$18,000,000 $43,000,000
Sinister Oct 12, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
$10,000,000 $25,000,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $65,000,000
Seven Psychopaths Oct 12, 2012 CBS Films
$6,000,000 $19,000,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$15,000,000 $47,000,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
$34,000,000 $98,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
$18,000,000 $63,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
$17,000,000 $56,000,000
Pitch Perfect Sep 28, 2012 Universal
$9,000,000 $28,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
$18,000,000 $57,000,000
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
$6,000,000 $20,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2, Lincoln

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