Long Range Forecast: 'Zero Dark Thirty', 'Gangster Squad' & 'A Haunted House'

Featured Stories - on November 16, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

jan11.pngThree new films join our Long Range Forecast this weekend: Zero Dark Thirty, Gangster Squad and A Haunted House. All three are currently scheduled for wide release on January 11, 2013.

Zero Dark Thirty

PROS:

- Moving the wide release away from the crowded adult market in late December gives this a chance to thrive in January, releasing just as Oscar nominations are announced. Black Hawk Down successfully executed a similar strategy in early 2002.
- After the success of Argo, audiences may be more willing to give a film like this a chance, especially if reviews are strong.
- Likely to be more mainstream than The Hurt Locker was.

CONS:

- War films, especially on modern day subjects, can be hit and miss. See Green Zone and The Kingdom.
- Will be fighting against Gangster Squad over a similar audience during opening weekend.

Gangster Squad

PROS:

- The all-star cast gives the film some necessary pedigree during what is typically one of the slowest months of the year.
- Could tap into the same audience that turned American Gangster into a massive $266.5 million worldwide hit.
- Moviegoers have been excited about the trailer, at least on the internet.

CONS:

- The delay to January could cause it to be overshadowed by any holdover holiday hits and/or Oscar contenders.
- Sean Penn's performance has already been labeled as too over-the-top.
- Without the aid of awards buzz, is likely to be more front-loaded towards opening weekend than Zero Dark Thirty will be.

A Haunted House

PROS:

- The declining performance of the Paranormal Activity series a few months ago could indicate some potential for audiences being ready to give a spoof of the genre a chance.
- Marlon Wayans has previous success with the Scary Movie franchise.
- In the semi-recent past, spoofs such as Epic Movie and Meet the Spartans have performed well in January.

CONS:

- Spoofs tend to flop far more often than they succeed.
- Making fun of The Devil Inside already feels dated. Most people have already forgotten about that disaster.
- Is surrounded on the release schedule by two horror films: Texas Chainsaw 3D the week before and Mama the week after.
- Audiences in the mood for a comedy may wait a couple weeks for Movie 43 instead.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distribuitor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Gangster Squad Jan 11, 2013 Warner Bros.
$16,000,000 $47,000,000
A Haunted House Jan 11, 2013 Open Road
$11,000,000 $28,000,000
Texas Chainsaw 3D Jan 4, 2013 Lionsgate
$16,000,000 $30,000,000
Parental Guidance Dec 25, 2012 Fox
$9,000,000 $35,000,000
Django Unchained Dec 25, 2012 Weinstein Company
$28,000,000 $103,000,000
Les Miserables (2012) Dec 25, 2012 Universal
$22,000,000 $108,000,000
Jack Reacher Dec 21, 2012 Paramount
$16,000,000 $75,000,000
This is 40 Dec 21, 2012 Universal
$12,000,000 $65,000,000
Zero Dark Thirty Jan 11, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$13,000,000 $55,000,000
Monsters, Inc. 3D Dec 19, 2012 Disney
$8,000,000 $36,000,000
The Guilt Trip Dec 19, 2012 Paramount
$10,000,000 $53,000,000
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dec 14, 2012 Warner Bros. / New Line
$137,000,000 $445,000,000
Playing For Keeps (2012) Dec 7, 2012 FilmDistrict
$6,000,000 $18,000,000
Killing Them Softly Nov 30, 2012 Weinstein Company
$12,000,000 $40,000,000

Rise of the Guardians: $30 million*/$105 million
Life of Pi: $14 million*/$58 million
Red Dawn: $13 million*/$36 million
Silver Linings Playbook: $6 million*/$44 million


* = 3-day weekend (Friday though Sunday)

 

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Zero Dark Thirty, Gangster Squad, A Haunted House

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