Long Range Forecast: 'Admission, 'The Croods' & 'Olympus Has Fallen'

Featured Stories - on January 26, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

mar22.pngAdmissionThe Croods and Olympus Has Fallen join our Long Range Forecast this weekend. Each is currently scheduled to open on Friday, March 22.

Admission

PROS:

- Tina Fey hasn't been in many films, but Baby Mama and Date Night both had very solid box office performances.
- The combination of Tina Fey and Paul Rudd could help the film appeal to date night audiences.
- The film could have a good chance of holding up well given the past box office history of both Fey and Rudd.

CONS:

- While they aren't the most direct competition, The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen will make the marketplace as a whole quite crowded that weekend.
- As a Focus release, likely won't receive an ultra-wide opening weekend location count.

The Croods

PROS:

- Competition for family audiences in March and April appears to be light, especially if parents keep younger children away from Oz: The Great and Powerful and G.I. Joe: Retaliation.
- DreamWorks Animation and Fox are sure to do everything they can to make their first collaboration a success.
- DreamWorks Animation has had good March performances in recent years with 2009's Monsters vs. Aliens and 2010's How to Train Your Dragon.
- Holding power is likely to be strong.

CONS:

- DreamWorks Animation is coming off of Rise of the Guardians, which delivered the studio's most disappointing performance in quite some time.
- Early marketing suggests that the film is lacking in the the cuteness department, which typically helps draw the attention of younger moviegoers.

Olympus Has Fallen

PROS:

- Will beat fellow White House under attack film White House Down to the punch by three months.
- The film boasts a strong ensemble cast headlined by Gerard Butler, Aaron Eckhart and Morgan Freeman.

CONS:

- Early internet reaction to the film's trailer appears to be mixed.
- Gerard Butler currently isn't anywhere near the box office draw he was only a few years ago.
- Likely to be front-loaded, especially with G.I. Joe: Retaliation opening just one week later.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include ...

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Croods Mar 22, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$40,000,000 $150,000,000
Olympus Has Fallen Mar 22, 2013 FilmDistrict
$18,000,000 $48,000,000
Admission Mar 22, 2013 Focus
$15,000,000 $50,000,000
The Call Mar 15, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$12,000,000 $28,000,000
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone Mar 15, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$17,000,000 $52,000,000
Dead Man Down Mar 8, 2013 FilmDistrict
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Oz: The Great and Powerful Mar 8, 2013 Disney
$55,000,000 $160,000,000
Jack the Giant Slayer Mar 1, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$23,000,000 $60,000,000
Phantom (2013) Mar 1, 2013 RCR Media Group
$5,000,000 $13,000,000
The Last Exorcism Part II Mar 1, 2013 CBS Films
$11,000,000 $23,000,000
21 And Over Mar 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
Dark Skies Feb 22, 2013 Weinstein / Dimension
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
Snitch (2013) Feb 22, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
A Good Day to Die Hard Feb 14, 2013 Fox
$47,000,000* $125,000,000
Safe Haven Feb 14, 2013 Relativity Media
$22,000,000* $57,000,000
Escape From Planet Earth Feb 14, 2013 Weinstein Company
$15,000,000* $40,000,000
Beautiful Creatures (2013) Feb 14, 2013 Warner Bros.
$21,000,000* $55,000,000
Identity Thief Feb 8, 2013 Universal
$19,000,000 $62,000,000
Side Effects (2013) Feb 8, 2013 Open Road
$21,000,000 $65,000,000
Warm Bodies Feb 1, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$18,000,000 $47,000,000
Bullet to the Head Feb 1, 2013 Warner Bros.
$7,000,000 $17,000,000

* = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Croods, Olympus Has Fallen

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