Long Range Forecast: 'G.I. Joe: Retaliation', 'The Host' & 'Temptation'

Featured Stories - on February 02, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

mar29.pngThree films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this weekend: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Host and Tyler Perry's Temptation. All three films are scheduled to debut on Friday, March 29.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

PROS:

- The added presence of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (who will be attracting extra attention at the time for his WrestleMania appearance) and Bruce Willis within the cast.
- Channing Tatum is a bigger draw now than he was for the first film back in 2009.
- The shift in tone from the first film might attract older action fans and widen the demographic appeal.
- Will have a 3D boost that G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra didn't have.

CONS:

- Easter isn't the easiest weekend to open a film (only two films have ever opened with more than $40 million on Easter weekend) and competition will be especially fierce this Easter.
- The last-minute delay of the film by nearly a year may have dampened the previous enthusiasm levels that existed last year.
- While not universally hated, the first film isn't something that most have clamored for a sequel to.
- The extent of Channing Tatum's role in this sequel still seems to be up in the air.

The Host

PROS:

- Adaptations of young-adult fiction remain safe bets at the box office.
- Stephanie Meyer's Twilight follow-up is sure to draw media attention, though whether or not her name draws in Twilight fans to a non-Twilight film remains to be seen.
- Saoirse Ronan already has a following after her performances in Atonement, The Lovely Bones and Hanna.

CONS:

- As mentioned, opening on Easter weekend isn't easy and this year will be especially crowded.
- Based on anticipation levels so far, the film is more likely to perform in line with adaptations such as Eragon and I Am Number Four rather than having a break-out performance.
- While he has a following, Andrew Niccol's previous films as a director haven't performed all that well at the box office.

Tyler Perry's Temptation

PROS:

- Based on a pre-existing Tyler Perry play, which typically transfers into a stronger box office performance when it comes to Perry's films.
- Three previous Tyler Perry films have debuted on Easter weekend (Why Did I Get Married Too?, Madea's Big Happy Family and Meet the Browns), with opening weekend grosses for those three all falling within the $20 million to $30 million range.

CONS:

- Both of Perry's non-Madea 2012 projects, Good Deeds and Alex Cross, failed to live up to box office expectations.
- Potential could be limited a bit from opening the same weekend as G.I. Joe: Retaliation.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Identity Thief and Side Effects.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Tyler Perry's Temptation Mar 29, 2013 Lionsgate
$22,000,000 $47,000,000
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Mar 29, 2013 Paramount
$52,000,000 $140,000,000
The Host (2013) Mar 29, 2013 Open Road
$25,000,000 $70,000,000
Admission Mar 22, 2013 Focus
$15,000,000 $50,000,000
The Croods Mar 22, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$40,000,000 $150,000,000
Olympus Has Fallen Mar 22, 2013 FilmDistrict
$18,000,000 $48,000,000
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone Mar 15, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$17,000,000 $52,000,000
The Call Mar 15, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$12,000,000 $28,000,000
Dead Man Down Mar 8, 2013 FilmDistrict
$9,000,000 $25,000,000
Oz: The Great and Powerful Mar 8, 2013 Disney
$55,000,000 $160,000,000
The Last Exorcism Part II Mar 1, 2013 CBS Films
$11,000,000 $23,000,000
21 And Over Mar 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
Jack the Giant Slayer Mar 1, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$23,000,000 $60,000,000
Phantom (2013) Mar 1, 2013 RCR Media Group
$5,000,000 $13,000,000
Dark Skies Feb 22, 2013 Weinstein / Dimension
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
Snitch (2013) Feb 22, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$13,000,000 $35,000,000
A Good Day to Die Hard Feb 14, 2013 Fox
$47,000,000* $125,000,000
Escape From Planet Earth Feb 14, 2013 Weinstein Company
$15,000,000* $40,000,000
Safe Haven Feb 14, 2013 Relativity Media
$22,000,000* $57,000,000
Beautiful Creatures (2013) Feb 14, 2013 Warner Bros.
$21,000,000* $55,000,000
Side Effects (2013) Feb 8, 2013 Open Road
$17,000,000 $55,000,000
Identity Thief Feb 8, 2013 Universal
$23,000,000 $74,000,000

* = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Tyler Perry's Temptation, Temptation, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Host

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