Long Range Forecast: 'Pain and Gain' & 'The Big Wedding'

Featured Stories - on March 02, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

apr29.pngThe final weekend before the 2013 summer movie season kicks off will see the debut of two new films: Michael Bay's Pain and Gain and a timely wedding comedy, The Big Wedding.

The Big Wedding

PROS:

- A collective cast that includes Robert De Niro, Amanda Seyfried, Katherine Heigl, Diane Keaton and Robin Williams.
- Wedding-themed films tend to have at least respectable showings at the box office, especially during the spring.
- DeNiro is coming off the recent success of Silver Linings Playbook and has found further success with wedding and family-themed films in the past with the Meet the Parents franchise.

CONS:

- De Niro, Williams and even Heigl have all seen better days when it comes to their box office drawing power.
- While in this case a spring release date should be more beneficial than the previous October one, being pushed back typically isn't a good sign.

Pain and Gain

PROS:

- The combination of Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, Mark Wahlberg and Michael Bay provides plenty of box office star power.
- As a result of that star power, likely to receive a relatively large marketing push for a film of its size.
- The true size of Michael Bay's fanbase could prove to be a wild card for the better or for the worse.

CONS:

- Too much Johnson and Wahlberg? It will be the third film of 2013 for Johnson and second film of 2013 for Wahlberg, with more 2013 films still on the horizon for both.
- There is likely to be a lot of overlap between the fanbases of Johnson, Wahlberg and Bay.
- Opening in between Oblivion and Iron Man 3 will not be easy to say the least. Likely to be quite front-loaded towards opening weekend.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Oz: The Great and Powerful and Dead Man Down.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Big Wedding Apr 26, 2013 Lionsgate
$14,000,000 $50,000,000
Pain and Gain Apr 26, 2013 Paramount
$22,000,000 $55,000,000
Jobs Apr 19, 2013 Open Road
$13,000,000 $33,000,000
Oblivion (2013) Apr 12, 2013 Universal
$42,000,000 $120,000,000
Scary Movie 5 Apr 12, 2013 Weinstein / Dimension
$20,000,000 $45,000,000
42 (2013) Apr 12, 2013 Warner Bros.
$17,000,000 $50,000,000
Jurassic Park 3D Apr 5, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $55,000,000
Evil Dead Apr 5, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$20,000,000 $47,000,000
The Host (2013) Mar 29, 2013 Open Road
$23,000,000 $63,000,000
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Mar 29, 2013 Paramount
$48,000,000 $125,000,000
Tyler Perry's Temptation Mar 29, 2013 Lionsgate
$22,000,000 $47,000,000
The Croods Mar 22, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$40,000,000 $150,000,000
Admission Mar 22, 2013 Focus
$15,000,000 $50,000,000
Olympus Has Fallen Mar 22, 2013 FilmDistrict
$17,000,000 $45,000,000
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone Mar 15, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$18,000,000 $55,000,000
The Call Mar 15, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$13,000,000 $30,000,000
Oz: The Great and Powerful Mar 8, 2013 Disney
$64,000,000 $183,000,000
Dead Man Down Mar 8, 2013 FilmDistrict
$7,000,000 $18,000,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Pain and Gain, The Big Wedding

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