Weekend Predictions: 'Oz: The Great and Powerful' & 'Dead Man Down'

Featured Stories - on March 06, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

mar8.pngThe second frame of March welcomes what should be the biggest debut so far of 2013. Disney launches Sam Raimi's Oz: The Great and Powerful and will be aiming to become the first movie of the year that captures a large family audience. Meanwhile, Dead Man Down will roll into theaters in an effort to counter-program.

Oz: The Great and Powerful

PROS:

- The original Wizard of Oz is a widely beloved film to this day.
- The Disney marketing machine.
- The ensemble cast led by James Franco helps the film stand out among audiences of varying ages.
- Families haven't had a high profile movie to choose from since The Hobbit.
- Director Sam Raimi is more well known to audiences compared to other directors thanks to his success with the Spider-Man trilogy.
- The slumping 2013 market and it's unappealing mainstream offerings could result in this being the benefactor of pent-up moviegoer demand for an event-like movie.

CONS:

- Reviews have been middling.
- While strong in it's own right, Twitter activity has trailed that of Snow White and the Huntsman during the comparable week of release.
- Franco and co. aren't really draws on their own.
- Is the early box office slump in 2013 attributed more to economical factors or choice/quality of movies?

Dead Man Down

PROS:

- Should provide decent counter-programming for action fans and those not looking to see Oz this weekend.
- Selling the film as "from the director of the original The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" could entice fans of those films to come out.
- Facebook activity has been decent. 

CONS:

- Marketing has done little to raise widespread awareness for the film.
- Colin Farrell isn't a significant box office draw.
- Twitter activity has trailed that of Seven Psychopaths

Check out our predictions for these films and the remainder of the top 10 in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Oz: The Great and Powerful Mar 8, 2013 Disney
$75,000,000 $75,000,000
Jack the Giant Slayer Mar 1, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$13,000,000 $47,000,000
Identity Thief Feb 8, 2013 Universal
$6,200,000 $116,400,000
Dead Man Down Mar 8, 2013 FilmDistrict
$5,000,000 $5,000,000
21 And Over Mar 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$4,700,000 $16,400,000
Snitch (2013) Feb 22, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$4,600,000 $31,300,000
Silver Linings Playbook Nov 16, 2012 Weinstein Company
$4,500,000 $121,400,000
Escape From Planet Earth Feb 15, 2013 Weinstein Company
$3,800,000 $48,500,000
Safe Haven Feb 14, 2013 Relativity Media
$3,700,000 $62,700,000
The Last Exorcism Part II Mar 1, 2013 CBS Films
$2,800,000 $11,700,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Oz: The Great and Powerful, Dead Man Down

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