Weekend Forecast: 'The Hangover Part III', 'Fast & Furious 6' & 'Epic'

Featured Stories - on May 22, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

may24.pngAs part of one of the most anticipated Memorial Day weekends in box office history, three new titles will enter an already busy marketplace. The Hangover Part III opens on Thursday, May 23, followed by Fast & Furious 6 and Epic on Friday.

The Hangover Part III

PROS:

- The first two films are among the highest grossing of all-time when it comes to R-rated flicks and the comedy genre as a whole.
- Online activity--Flixster in particular--is relatively strong.
- Getting a one-day head-start on the busy weekend could help to spread awareness and word of mouth.
- The synergy provided by Bradley Cooper's rising stardom in the wake of Silver Linings Playbook, Zach Galifianakis' steady popularity, and Ed Helms' heavy media exposure thanks to "The Office" finale could help offset lack of interest from disappointed fans. 

CONS:

- The already-crowded market.
- The Hangover Part II burned some audiences, meaning lessened demand for this sequel is very likely.
- Opening against another male-focused film in Fast & Furious 6 won't do it any favors as that franchise is at its peak in popularity.
- Reviews have been unkind thus far.
- Twitter activity has been lagging behind the previous film. 

Fast & Furious 6

PROS:

- Fast Five became the biggest hit of the franchise to-date in 2011, bolstered by strong word of mouth.
- Online activity has been continuously strong for the sixth entry dating back to its Super Bowl ad in February--when it was the most well-received trailer shown during the game.
- Opening on a major holiday weekend is a first for the series, increasing potential for a big opening.
- Not many recent releases have catered to the urban crowd--this series' target audience. 

CONS:

- Fast Five opened the summer with no competition in the market. As the fifth big release of May this time, will there be enough room to expand on that film's $86.2 million opening?
- In the wake of Iron Man 3 and Star Trek Into Darkness, demand from action fans could be slightly more muted this time around.
- Every franchise experiences fatigue at some point. Six films in, does the Fast series have another peak to hit? 

Epic

PROS:

- The holiday will bring out plenty of family audiences looking for light/animated fare.
- No animated movie has released since The Croods in March, a drought that has shown to be advantageous for past hits like Madagascar 3 and The Croods itself.
- Flixster activity has been comparable to that of The Croods and Hotel Transylvania

CONS:

- The lack of an established brand name combined with a decidedly generic title could diminish appeal outside of little kids.
- With Iron Man 3 and Star Trek Into Darkness benefiting from positive word of mouth, families may easily just opt for those.
- Families may simply wait for Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 later this summer. 

The final domestic forecasts from the BoxOffice team are $175 million for The Hangover Part III, $225 million for Fast & Furious 6, and $95 million for Epic.

Check out our 4-day weekend forecast for these new releases and the remainder of the top 10 in the table below.

 

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Gross Total Gross through Monday, May 27, 2013
Fast & Furious 6 May 24, 2013 Universal
$107,000,000 $107,000,000
The Hangover Part III May 23, 2013 Warner Bros.
$68,500,000 $85,800,000
Star Trek Into Darkness May 16, 2013 Paramount
$45,500,000 $153,700,000
Epic May 24, 2013 Fox
$33,300,000 $33,300,000
Iron Man 3 May 3, 2013 Disney
$25,000,000 $372,700,000
The Great Gatsby (2013) May 10, 2013 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $118,700,000
The Croods Mar 22, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$2,000,000 $180,000,000
Pain and Gain Apr 26, 2013 Paramount
$1,900,000 $50,000,000
42 (2013) Apr 12, 2013 Warner Bros.
$1,800,000 $91,500,000
Mud Apr 26, 2013 Roadside Attractions
$1,700,000 $14,200,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Hangover Part III, Fast & Furious 6, Epic, Star Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, The Great Gatsby

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