Long Range Forecast: '2 Guns' & 'The Smurfs 2'

Featured Stories - on June 07, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

aug2.pngOur Long Range Forecast has been updated this weekend to include two late summer openers: July 31's The Smurfs 2 and August 2's 2 Guns.

2 Guns

PROS:

- The combined star power of Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg and their recent successes with Safe House and Contraband, respectively.
- Audiences looking for more "down to earth" action will have their first option since June 28's White House Down with 2 Guns.
- Interest from men and women could be strong on both fronts thanks to the appeal of the film's stars.

CONS:

- Should The Wolverine turn out to have positive word of mouth, its second weekend could soften upfront demand for this.

- There may be a sizeable amount of audience overlap among fans of Washington and fans of Wahlberg.

- Healthy box office results in May, June and July could lead to a weak month of August.

The Smurfs 2

PROS:

- The built-in recognition and appeal of its brand name.
- The first film did surprisingly well in 2011 with over $142 million at the domestic box office.
- Is currently the last major kid-friendly film on the summer release slate. 

CONS:

- Could DreamWorks' Turbo eat into the potential audience opening two weeks before?
- By this point in the summer, families may have had their fill of animated movies (and especially animated sequels).
- The first movie provided a novelty in the franchise's first foray into CG feature film animation. That novelty may be diminished this time. 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Man of Steel (up), The Lone Ranger (up), This Is The End (down on the opening weekend, up on the cume). 

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
2 Guns Aug 2, 2013 Universal
$43,000,000 $127,000,000
The Smurfs 2 Jul 31, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$26,000,000* $100,000,000
The Wolverine Jul 26, 2013 Fox
$63,000,000 $150,000,000
Red 2 Jul 19, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$22,000,000 $71,000,000
R.I.P.D. Jul 19, 2013 Universal
$12,000,000 $30,000,000
The Conjuring Jul 19, 2013 Warner Bros.
$20,000,000 $64,000,000
Turbo Jul 17, 2013 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
$21,000,000 $80,000,000
Grown Ups 2 Jul 12, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$40,000,000 $128,000,000
Pacific Rim Jul 12, 2013 Warner Bros.
$55,000,000 $185,000,000
Despicable Me 2 Jul 3, 2013 Universal
$76,000,000* $353,000,000
The Lone Ranger Jul 3, 2013 Disney
$35,000,000* $135,000,000
White House Down Jun 28, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$36,000,000 $112,000,000
The Heat Jun 28, 2013 Fox
$37,000,000 $152,000,000
World War Z Jun 21, 2013 Paramount
$40,000,000 $105,000,000
Monsters University Jun 21, 2013 Disney
$80,000,000 $275,000,000
Man of Steel Jun 14, 2013 Warner Bros.
$115,000,000 $357,000,000

This Is The End: $23 million opening weekend*/$95 million cume

* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.
 

Tags: 2 Guns, The Smurfs

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