Long Range Forecast: 'Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2', 'Baggage Claim', 'Rush', & 'Don Jon'

Featured Stories - on August 02, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

sep27.pngFour new films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week, all of which are currently scheduled to open in wide release on Friday, September 27.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

PROS:

- The first film was a major success during Fall 2009, grossing nearly $125 million domestically.
- This will be the first, and only, family-centric animated title between August and November.
- The all-star voice cast and comedy-driven concept should again keep adults interested. 
- Facebook buzz has already impressed during the release of the latest trailer. 

CONS:

- Animated sequels tend to decline from their predecessors' grosses more often than they increase.
- Will four years between films be too long of a gap?

Baggage Claim

PROS:

- Paula Patton gained a lot more recognition after her role in Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol.
- Thanks to an ensemble cast, the film will be one of few to appeal heavily toward urban audiences during the fall.

CONS:

- Writer/Director David E. Talbert's First Sunday did only modest business in 2008.
- Without a major star in the lead, it might be hard to get audiences interested.

Rush

PROS:

- Chris Hemsworth is a budding star thanks to his role as Thor in The Avengers and its related franchise entries.
- Director Ron Howard has a history of success with personal dramas. 
- Any potential Oscar buzz could help the film generate legs through the autumn season. 

CONS:

- Formula 1 racing, while popular, could still be considered somewhat of a niche subject.
- Opening in late September distances itself from Oscar season a bit, so word of mouth will be more important. 

Don Jon

PROS:

- Joseph Gordon-Levitt is another rising star thanks to his resume over the last five years.
- The ensemble cast and light tone of the trailer are designed to sell a crowd-pleaser.
- Early buzz around Gordon-Levitt's directorial debut here is encouraging. 

CONS:

- Gordon-Levitt hasn't quite proven himself a box office draw yet, and the subject matter will be a tricky selling point.
- Opening on a busy weekend could cause Don Jon to get overlooked initially, similar to what happened with the well-received 50/50 in 2011. 

Notable changes on our forecast this week include We're the Millers (down), Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (down on total), Planes (up),and Paranoia (down).

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sep 27, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$40,000,000 $148,000,000
Don Jon Sep 27, 2013 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $27,000,000
Baggage Claim Sep 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Rush (2013) Sep 20, 2013 Universal
$15,000,000 $43,000,000
Battle of the Year Sep 20, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$9,000,000 $22,000,000
Prisoners Sep 20, 2013 Warner Bros.
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
The Family (2013) Sep 13, 2013 Relativity Media
$13,000,000 $40,000,000
Insidious Chapter 2 Sep 13, 2013 FilmDistrict
$30,000,000 $68,000,000
Riddick Sep 6, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $60,000,000
Getaway Aug 30, 2013 Warner Bros.
$11,000,000** $23,000,000
One Direction: This Is Us Aug 30, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$19,000,000** $38,000,000
Closed Circuit Aug 28, 2013 Focus
$6,000,000** $15,000,000
You're Next Aug 23, 2013 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $26,000,000
The World's End Aug 23, 2013 Focus
$11,000,000 $33,000,000
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones Aug 21, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$15,000,000 $42,000,000
Paranoia Aug 16, 2013 Relativity Media
$10,000,000 $30,000,000
Jobs Aug 16, 2013 Open Road
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Kick-Ass 2 Aug 16, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $58,000,000
Lee Daniels' The Butler Aug 16, 2013 Weinstein Company
$14,000,000 $56,000,000
Elysium Aug 9, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$33,000,000 $100,000,000
Planes
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
We're the Millers 
Aug 9, 2013
Aug 7, 2013
Aug 7, 2013 
Disney
Fox
Warner Bros. / New Line 
$20,000,000
$20,000,000*
$21,000,000*
$81,000,000
$76,000,000
$77,000,000 

* = 3-day weekend
** = 4-day weekend 

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2, Rush, Don Jon, Baggage Claim

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