Long Range Forecast: 'Captain Phillips' & 'Machete Kills'

Featured Stories - on August 16, 2013 by BOXOFFICE Staff

oct11.pngThis week, October 11 openers Captain Phillips and Machete Kills have been added to our Long Range Forecast.

Captain Phillips

PROS:

- The heroic real life story of the Maersk-Alabama made headlines in 2009.
- Tom Hanks gives the film considerable clout among older audiences.
- Opening in the run-up to Oscar season could prove a smart strategy.
- Director Paul Greengrass found a great deal of success with The Bourne Supremacy and The Bourne Ultimatum

CONS:

- Hanks' ability to draw at the box office has softened a bit in recent years. T
- Should Gravity and/or Runner Runner break out one week earlier, it slightly diminishes the chances of a breakout for this film.
- Greengrass didn't repeat his Bourne success with United 93 or Green Zone

Machete Kills

PROS:

- The first Machete pulled a respectable $26.6 million domestically three years ago.
- Director Robert Rodriguez's fan following.
- The addition of more stunt-casting names, such as Mel Gibson and Charlie Sheen. 

CONS:

- The niche genre rules out much chance for the sequel to significantly out-perform its predecessor.
- Will the unique concept pay off more than once? 

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Machete Kills Oct 11, 2013 Open Road
$10,500,000 $24,000,000
Captain Phillips Oct 11, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$18,000,000 $72,000,000
Gravity Oct 4, 2013 Warner Bros.
$26,000,000 $85,000,000
Runner Runner Oct 4, 2013 Fox
$18,000,000 $55,000,000
Don Jon Sep 27, 2013 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $27,000,000
Baggage Claim Sep 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$10,000,000 $28,000,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sep 27, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$40,000,000 $148,000,000
Prisoners Sep 20, 2013 Warner Bros.
$19,000,000 $70,000,000
Battle of the Year Sep 20, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$9,000,000 $22,000,000
Rush (2013) Sep 20, 2013 Universal
$15,000,000 $43,000,000
The Family (2013) Sep 13, 2013 Relativity Media
$13,000,000 $40,000,000
Insidious Chapter 2 Sep 13, 2013 FilmDistrict
$30,000,000 $68,000,000
Riddick Sep 6, 2013 Universal
$25,000,000 $60,000,000
One Direction: This Is Us Aug 30, 2013 Sony / TriStar
$19,000,000** $38,000,000
Getaway Aug 30, 2013 Warner Bros.
$11,000,000** $23,000,000
Closed Circuit Aug 28, 2013 Focus
$6,000,000** $15,000,000
The World's End Aug 23, 2013 Focus
$10,000,000 $30,000,000
You're Next Aug 23, 2013 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $28,000,000

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones: $12 million*/$35 million

* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)
** = 4-day weekend (Fri-Mon)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report. 

Tags: Captain Phillips, Machete Kills

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