Long Range Forecast: 'Black Nativity', 'Frozen', 'Homefront', & 'Oldboy'

Featured Stories - on October 04, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

nov27.pngFour films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week, all of which are slated to open on Wednesday, November 27 for the extended Thanksgiving weekend.

Black Nativity

PROS:

- The ensemble cast led by Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett, Jennifer Hudson, and Tyrese Gibson.
- The story's holiday setting coincides with its release date very well.
- Strong counter-programming for urban audiences.

CONS:

- Contemporary musicals are hit or miss at the box office.
- Could struggle to break outside its target audience.

Frozen

PROS:

- Never bet against an animated Disney film released around the holidays. The recent success of Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph proves that.
- If Free Birds fails to take off, Frozen will be the first appealing animation for kids and families since September's Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2.

CONS:

- With respect to Kristen Bell and Josh Gad, the voice cast lacks any star names to entice adult crowds with.
- The animation box office slump that kicked in after summer's Despicable Me 2 could continue through the end of the year.

Homefront

PROS:

- Stars ason Statham and James Franco have their share of individual followings.
- Fans of B-grade action films will eat this one up.

CONS:

- Is Thanksgiving really the best time to release an R-rated thriller about a meth druglord? We don't think so.
- Neither Statham nor Franco are reliable draws. Both stars have their share of duds. 

Oldboy (2013)

PROS:

- The original 2003 South Korean film has become something of a modern cult classic.
- Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson bring some needed star appeal.

CONS:

- The original film isn't well known outside of its niche fan base.
- Neither Brolin nor Jackson have shown a consistent ability to deliver strong box office numbers on their own. 
- Director Spike Lee is known for polarizing audiences.  

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Captain Phillips (up) and Machete Kills (down).

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Homefront Nov 27, 2013 Open Road
$7,000,000* $20,000,000
Oldboy (2013) Nov 27, 2013 FilmDistrict
$10,000,000* $28,000,000
Black Nativity Nov 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$12,000,000* $36,000,000
Frozen (2013) Nov 27, 2013 Disney
$38,000,000* $170,000,000

Delivery Man

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Nov 22, 2013

Nov 22, 2013

Disney

Lionsgate / Summit

$12,000,000

$168,000,000

$41,000,000

$390,000,000

The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
The Wolf of Wall Street Nov 15, 2013 Paramount
$32,000,000 $115,000,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$91,000,000 $235,000,000
Ender's Game Nov 1, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$30,000,000 $80,000,000
Last Vegas Nov 1, 2013 CBS Films
$18,000,000 $60,000,000
Free Birds Nov 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$20,000,000 $80,000,000
About Time Nov 1, 2013 Universal
$11,000,000 $45,000,000
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Oct 25, 2013 Paramount
$27,000,000 $62,000,000
The Counselor Oct 25, 2013 Fox
$19,000,000 $65,000,000
Escape Plan Oct 18, 2013 Lionsgate / Summit
$12,000,000 $30,000,000
Carrie (2013) Oct 18, 2013 Sony / Screen Gems
$21,000,000 $50,000,000
Captain Phillips Oct 11, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$20,000,000 $76,000,000
Machete Kills Oct 11, 2013 Open Road
$8,000,000 $18,000,000

* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.
 

Tags: Oldboy, Homefront, Frozen, Black Nativity

3 Comments

  • Kenneth on 05 October 2013

    Where's The Hunger Games?

  • PS3eter1992 on 07 October 2013

    Predicting a 38mil opening for Frozen simply because of the voice cast and the so called "animation slump." Do Turbo and Planes seriously count as a "slump?" Nobody wanted to see those anyway. And since when was Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2 a flop? Geez B.O., what do you have against animation? Yeah, it wasn't the best year for animation, but 2 movies and a smaller-scope animated film does not constitute a "slump."

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