Weekend Forecast: 'Frozen', 'Black Nativity', 'Homefront', & 'Oldboy'

Featured Stories - on November 26, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

nov27.pngAudiences will pile into theaters this Thanksgiving weekend with newcomer Frozen leading a pack of new releases following Catching Fire's massive debut. Homefront, Black Nativity, and Spike Lee's remake of Oldboy also join the mix.

Frozen

PROS:

- Disney has a strong history of box office performances from animated titles over Thanksgiving weekend, recently including Tangled and Enchanted.
- Appealing to women of all ages has proven to be a successful strategy for the studio, as well as recent blockbusters.
- Early reviews have been very positive, adding to the film's potential. 

CONS:

- Any potential crossover between the female audience of this and Catching Fire could limit upfront sales compared to Tangled.
- Marketing hasn't highlighted the musical nature of the film, something that could put off young boys from the flick.
- Twitter and Facebook activity are improving, but had slow starts entering the week.

Black Nativity

PROS:

- The ensemble cast led by Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett, Jennifer Hudson, and Tyrese Gibson.
- The story's holiday setting coincides with its release date very well.

CONS:

- The breakout success of The Best Man Holiday likely cut off any chance this had of finding a large audience.
- Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster activity have been notably sluggish.

Homefront

PROS:

- Jason Statham carries a consistent fan base into most of his films. James Franco adds to the potential middle-America appeal
- The film provides counter-programming to the female-leaning films dominating the market.

CONS:

- Statham's audience size is limited, as is Franco's box office appeal.
- Online activity has been modest at best.

Oldboy (2013)

PROS:

- The original 2003 South Korean film has become something of a modern cult classic.
- Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson bring some needed star appeal.

CONS:

- The original film isn't well known outside of its niche fan base.
- The limited opening in 583 locations.
- Neither Brolin nor Jackson have shown a consistent ability to deliver strong box office numbers on their own.
- Director Spike Lee is known for polarizing audiences.

 Check out our forecast for this 3-day weekend's top 13 in the table below. 

Title Release Date Distributor Weekend Gross Domestic Total through Sunday, December 1
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$60,000,000 $276,000,000
Frozen (2013) Nov 22, 2013 Disney
$47,000,000 $65,300,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$11,300,000 $187,200,000
The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$9,800,000 $66,300,000
Black Nativity Nov 27, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$8,200,000 $12,000,000
Homefront Nov 27, 2013 Open Road
$7,600,000 $11,000,000
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$6,100,000 $18,300,000
Last Vegas Nov 1, 2013 CBS Films
$4,100,000 $60,700,000
Free Birds Nov 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$4,000,000 $56,500,000
The Book Thief Nov 8, 2013 Fox
$3,800,000 $6,700,000
Philomena Nov 22, 2013 Weinstein Company
$3,700,000 $5,200,000
Gravity Oct 4, 2013 Warner Bros.
$2,700,000 $249,900,000
Oldboy (2013) Nov 27, 2013 FilmDistrict
$2,600,000 $4,100,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Frozen, Oldboy, Homefront, Black Nativity, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

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