Weekend Forecast: 'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' & 'Delivery Man'

Featured Stories - on November 20, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

nov22.pngThe highly anticipated The Hunger Games: Catching Fire launches this Friday, November 22. Vince Vaughn's Delivery Man also debuts. Check out our analysis below.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PROS:

- The first film was a breakout phenomenon, grossing $152.5 million on opening weekend and $408 million domestically.
- Star Jennifer Lawrence's popularity has only increased in the last year and a half, largely due to her Oscar-winning role in Silver Linings Playbook following The Hunger Games.
- The fan base of the books has continued to grow since last year.
- This installment gains the benefit of an IMAX run from day one.
- Twitter, Flixster, and Facebook activity have been exceptional over the last few weeks. 

CONS:

- The original film was in new territory for a franchise-starter performing at the box office levels that it did.
- With Thor: The Dark World and The Best Man Holiday pulling respectively strong numbers, competition is stiffer for Catching Fire than it was for its predecessor.
- The young female-heavy appeal of the franchise is somewhat similar to that of Harry Potter and, to a lesser extent, Twilight.
- Will curious non-fans show up on opening weekend again?

Delivery Man

PROS:

- Vince Vaughn has a core fan base that usually turns out for his movies.
- The counter-programming against Catching Fire could lure in older audiences looking for a comedy. 

CONS:

- Vaughn's recent track record has left much to be desired (The Internship, The Dilemma, The Watch).
- Online activity from Twitter, Flixster, and Facebook are underwhelming.
- Regardless of targeting a slightly different audience, competing with Catching Fire virtually eliminates the potential for female audiences to help turn this into a date night movie. 

Check out our forecast for this weekend's top 11 in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$166,000,000 $166,000,000
The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$16,000,000 $54,000,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$15,800,000 $169,900,000
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$9,000,000 $9,000,000
Last Vegas Nov 1, 2013 CBS Films
$5,600,000 $55,300,000
Free Birds Nov 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$5,000,000 $48,300,000
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Oct 25, 2013 Paramount
$4,100,000 $96,200,000
Gravity Oct 4, 2013 Warner Bros.
$3,900,000 $246,200,000
Dallas Buyers Club Nov 1, 2013 Focus
$3,500,000 $7,200,000
12 Years a Slave Oct 18, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$3,100,000 $29,800,000
Captain Phillips Oct 11, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$2,900,000 $101,800,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Delivery Man

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