Weekend Forecast: 'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' & 'Delivery Man'

Featured Stories - on November 20, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

nov22.pngThe highly anticipated The Hunger Games: Catching Fire launches this Friday, November 22. Vince Vaughn's Delivery Man also debuts. Check out our analysis below.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PROS:

- The first film was a breakout phenomenon, grossing $152.5 million on opening weekend and $408 million domestically.
- Star Jennifer Lawrence's popularity has only increased in the last year and a half, largely due to her Oscar-winning role in Silver Linings Playbook following The Hunger Games.
- The fan base of the books has continued to grow since last year.
- This installment gains the benefit of an IMAX run from day one.
- Twitter, Flixster, and Facebook activity have been exceptional over the last few weeks. 

CONS:

- The original film was in new territory for a franchise-starter performing at the box office levels that it did.
- With Thor: The Dark World and The Best Man Holiday pulling respectively strong numbers, competition is stiffer for Catching Fire than it was for its predecessor.
- The young female-heavy appeal of the franchise is somewhat similar to that of Harry Potter and, to a lesser extent, Twilight.
- Will curious non-fans show up on opening weekend again?

Delivery Man

PROS:

- Vince Vaughn has a core fan base that usually turns out for his movies.
- The counter-programming against Catching Fire could lure in older audiences looking for a comedy. 

CONS:

- Vaughn's recent track record has left much to be desired (The Internship, The Dilemma, The Watch).
- Online activity from Twitter, Flixster, and Facebook are underwhelming.
- Regardless of targeting a slightly different audience, competing with Catching Fire virtually eliminates the potential for female audiences to help turn this into a date night movie. 

Check out our forecast for this weekend's top 11 in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$166,000,000 $166,000,000
The Best Man Holiday Nov 15, 2013 Universal
$16,000,000 $54,000,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$15,800,000 $169,900,000
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$9,000,000 $9,000,000
Last Vegas Nov 1, 2013 CBS Films
$5,600,000 $55,300,000
Free Birds Nov 1, 2013 Relativity Media
$5,000,000 $48,300,000
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Oct 25, 2013 Paramount
$4,100,000 $96,200,000
Gravity Oct 4, 2013 Warner Bros.
$3,900,000 $246,200,000
Dallas Buyers Club Nov 1, 2013 Focus
$3,500,000 $7,200,000
12 Years a Slave Oct 18, 2013 Fox Searchlight
$3,100,000 $29,800,000
Captain Phillips Oct 11, 2013 Sony / Columbia
$2,900,000 $101,800,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Delivery Man

1 Comment

  • S. Cam on 21 November 2013

    What is guaranteed is a $150M+ opening. Anything below that will be a disappointment. It hasn't got 3D, so anything above HP7 - P2's opening of $169M (in 3D) will be very impressive. Can it break the opening-weekend record? Well, it hasn't got 3D, so how can it possibly compete with the Avengers? However, it will open Thursday night, not midnight (The Avengers opened midnight). Which gives it extra "weekend" screening time (technically not weekend but accounted for in the weekend gross for some wacky reason). I bet it'll open to $171M. Dare bet higher! :P

What do you think?