Weekend Forecast: 'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug' & 'Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas'

Featured Stories - on December 11, 2013 by BoxOffice Staff

dec13.pngThis second frame of December sees the anticipated release of Peter Jackson's The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, as well as Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

PROS:

- Excitement from fans has perked up since last year's first installment thanks to stronger trailers/marketing.
- General audiences helped send An Unexpected Journey north of $300 million domestically last time around.
- Early reviews indicate a generally well-paced improvement over the previous film.
- Twitter activity is slightly ahead of Journey at this same point in the pre-release cycle.

CONS:

- An Unexpected Journey was met with lukewarm reactions from some die hard fans and casual moviegoers. 
- Although reviews are trending in the positive direction, average moviegoers may still wait to check out the film until their Christmas breaks.
- Flixster activity is down significantly (about 30 percent) from where Journey stood before release.
- The simultaneous debut of A Madea Christmas could chip at away even more at The Hobbit's already modestly-sized female audience.

Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas

PROS:

- Tyler Perry has established a consistent audience and box office reputation over the years.
- Bringing his most popular character, Madea, to the holiday season for the first time should provide a bit of synergy for his audience.
- The previous Madea flick, Madea's Witness Protection, did solid business with its Summer 2012 release.
- Twitter and Flixster activity are leaps and bounds ahead of most Perry films.

CONS:

- Perry films haven't broken out north of $30 million in several years.
- The Christmas theme could inadvertently result in a more back-loaded run.
- The recent success of The Best Man Holiday may have capitalized on a starved audience too closely to the release of this flick.
- Debuting against The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug could prevent a major expansion of Perry's audience.

Check out our forecast for these films and the remainder of the weekend's top ten in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, Dec. 15
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug Dec 13, 2013 Warner Bros. / New Line
$80,000,000 $80,000,000
Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas Dec 13, 2013 Lionsgate
$33,000,000 $33,000,000
Frozen (2013) Nov 22, 2013 Disney
$22,500,000 $165,000,000
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Nov 22, 2013 Lionsgate
$13,500,000 $357,200,000
Thor: The Dark World Nov 8, 2013 Disney
$2,600,000 $198,000,000
Out of the Furnace Dec 4, 2013 Relativity Media
$2,500,000 $9,700,000
Delivery Man Nov 22, 2013 Disney / DreamWorks
$2,100,000 $28,200,000
Homefront Nov 27, 2013 Open Road
$1,900,000 $18,700,000
The Book Thief Nov 8, 2013 Fox
$1,700,000 $14,900,000
Philomena Nov 22, 2013 Weinstein Company
$1,600,000 $10,800,000

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas

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