Long Range Forecast: 'Neighbors', 'Chef', 'Moms' Night Out' and 'Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return'

Featured Stories - on March 14, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

neighborslongrange.png

BoxOffice adds four new films to our Long Range Forecast this week: Neighbors, Chef, Moms' Night Out and Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return. These four titles face the daunting task of opening in between The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Godzilla. Will they be up to it?

Neighbors
(Universal)

PROS:

- Reactions on Twitter/Facebook to the film's red-band trailer have been overwhelmingly positive.
- Early reviews out of SXSW show promise. 
- Star Seth Rogen is on a roll following the healthy performance of This Is The End last year.
- Zac Efron's performance should shock audiences who still see him as a teen heartthrob, and you can't put a price on that kind of buzz.
- Never underestimate how well R-rated comedies can perform during the summer season. For example, look no further than the impressive runs that We're the Millers ($150.4 million domestic) and This Is The End ($101.5 million) managed last summer. 

CONS:

- As stated above, opening in between The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Godzilla won't be easy for a flick that's bound to skew male
- College-themed comedies are notorious for objectifying women. As a result, key female demos may stay way from this one.

Chef
(Open Road) 

PROS:

- Director/star Jon Favreau has assembled one of the most impressive ensembles of the year. The cast list includes: Robert Downey, Jr., Scarlett Johansson, Dustin Hoffman and Sophia Vergara. 
- We're thinking this could be good counter-programming for adults who aren't interested in typical summer fare.
- Reviews out of SXSW are promising. 

CONS:

- The market is going to be extremely crowded.
- The ad campaign has yet to kick in any substantial way.

Moms' Night Out
(Sony)

PROS:

- Many women may find this to be a more appealing option than Neighbors or Chef.
- The recent wave of successful female-driven comedies bodes well.

CONS:

- Entering a crowded marketplace
- Lack of an A-list star may hurt it.

Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return
(Clarius)

PROS: 

- The familiar set of characters could serve to rope in family audiences.
- The recent success of Oz: The Great and Powerful proves that the brand is alive and well.

CONS: 

- There will be many other high-profile films aimed at families during the summer months. We doubt Clarius is ready to compete with the major studios.
- May is going to be an extremely tough month for smaller titles to break out in.

Check out our predictions for these films and others in the table below. Notable changes include Divergent (up), Muppets Most Wanted (down), Heaven is for Real (up). 

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return May 9, 2014 Clarius Entertainment
$4,000,000 $11,000,000
Moms' Night Out May 9, 2014 Sony / AFFIRM
$6,000,000 $14,000,000
Chef May 9, 2014 Open Road
$10,000,000 $31,000,000
Neighbors (2014) May 9, 2014 Universal
$34,000,000 $126,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 May 2, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$112,000,000 $265,000,000
The Quiet Ones Apr 25, 2014 Lionsgate
$10,000,000 $22,000,000
Brick Mansions Apr 25, 2014 Relativity Media
$7,000,000 $16,000,000
The Other Woman (2014) Apr 25, 2014 Fox
$15,000,000 $45,000,000
Bears Apr 18, 2014 Disneynature
$7,000,000 $21,000,000
A Haunted House 2 Apr 18, 2014 Open Road
$14,000,000 $31,000,000
Transcendence Apr 18, 2014 Warner Bros.
$26,000,000 $76,000,000
Heaven is for Real Apr 16, 2014 Sony / TriStar
$8,000,000* $27,000,000
Rio 2 Apr 11, 2014 Fox
$41,000,000 $148,000,000
Oculus Apr 11, 2014 Relativity Media
$12,000,000 $31,000,000
Draft Day Apr 11, 2014 Lionsgate / Summit
$13,000,000 $37,000,000
St. Vincent Apr 11, 2014 Weinstein Company
$4,000,000 $12,000,000
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Apr 4, 2014 Disney
$87,000,000 $225,000,000
Noah Mar 28, 2014 Paramount
$41,000,000 $115,000,000
Sabotage (2014) Mar 28, 2014 Open Road
$7,000,000 $15,000,000
Divergent Mar 21, 2014 Lionsgate / Summit
$68,000,000 $159,000,000
Muppets Most Wanted Mar 21, 2014 Disney
$17,000,000 $48,000,000

*3-day weekend

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: Neighbors, Chef, Moms' Night Out, Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return, predictions

0 Comments

No comments were posted.

What do you think?