Long Range Forecast: 'Gone Girl' & 'Annabelle'

Featured Stories - on August 08, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

oct3.pngThis week, we take a first look at Q4 releases with Gone Girl and Annabelle. Both are scheduled to open Friday, October 3.

Gone Girl

PROS:

- Following Benjamin Button, The Social Network, and Dragon Tattoo, David Fincher has been in the middle of a box office and awards hot streak for seemingly years now, and early indicators are that will continue with this film.
- Ben Affleck himself is also benefiting from a career resurgence in the wake of Argo and The Town.
- Reactions to the trailer have been very encouraging.
- The general lack of strong options for adult audiences before the holidays should help out.

CONS:

- The darker tone of the film and its characters could limit breakout potential somewhat.
- As last year's Runner Runner somewhat showed, Affleck isn't a guaranteed draw each time out.
- Will The Equalizer cut into this film's box office potential by opening just one week earlier?

Annabelle

PROS:

- Spun off from last year's hit The Conjuring, horror fans are looking forward to this prequel.
- There haven't been many horror options this year in general, which could create some extra demand.
- The October release positions it well to benefit from Halloween crowds.

CONS:

- Lacking any major stars, the film's premise will be the main selling point.
- Would audiences rather simply see a direct sequel to The Conjuring? We're betting that's the case.
- While it can co-exist, competition enters the fray a few weeks later in the form of Ouija.

Check out our initial forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Domestic Total
Gone Girl Oct 3, 2014 Fox
$24,000,000 $90,000,000
Annabelle Oct 3, 2014 Warner Bros. / New Line
$18,000,000 $41,000,000
The Equalizer Sep 26, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$35,000,000 $110,000,000
The Boxtrolls Sep 26, 2014 Focus
$14,000,000 $59,000,000
This Is Where I Leave You Sep 19, 2014 Warner Bros.
$13,000,000 $39,000,000
Tusk Sep 19, 2014 A24
$4,000,000 $8,000,000
A Walk Among the Tombstones Sep 19, 2014 Universal
$17,000,000 $49,000,000
The Maze Runner Sep 19, 2014 Fox
$21,000,000 $52,000,000
Dolphin Tale 2 Sep 12, 2014 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $62,000,000
No Good Deed (2014) Sep 12, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems
$10,000,000 $23,000,000
As Above/So Below Aug 29, 2014 Universal
$13,000,000 $27,000,000
The November Man Aug 27, 2014 Relativity Media
$9,000,000 $22,000,000
Frank Miller's Sin City: A Dame To Kill For Aug 22, 2014 Weinstein / Dimension
$20,000,000 $47,000,000
If I Stay Aug 22, 2014 Warner Bros. / New Line
$13,000,000 $34,000,000
When the Game Stands Tall Aug 22, 2014 Sony / TriStar
$14,000,000 $51,000,000
The Expendables 3 Aug 15, 2014 Lionsgate
$23,000,000 $65,000,000
The Giver
Let's Be Cops 
Aug 15, 2014
Aug 13, 2014 
Weinstein Company
Fox
$11,000,000
$23,000,000 
$29,000,000
$100,000,000 

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.

Tags: predictions, Gone Girl, Annabelle

2 Comments

  • boxchris on 08 August 2014

    I think you might be neglecting the alienating ending to the "Gone Girl" story - I know Fincher has said the last third of the book has been completely reworked but I dont see it having a 3.75x multiplier. It may reach $90 million but not with a a $24 million opening. If a $24 million opening occurs, expect no more than $75 million.

  • BoxOfficeWeekend on 18 September 2014

    I strongly believe you guys are underestimating Annabelle. Come on, look at the opening date, use of The Conjuring as a marketing strategy, James Wan attached as producer, and a scary movie all packaged into only a weak $18 million opening. No way this movie will only make $18 million in its first weekend.

    Needless to say, this Annabelle movie will double this prediction. It may even surpass $40+ million. $18 million for an October opening and its a horror movie with prequel implications.

    http://www.ScaryMoviesToWatch.com

What do you think?