Long Range Forecast: 'The Judge'

Featured Stories - on August 15, 2014 by BoxOffice Staff

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Robert Downey Jr. takes a break from Tony Stark duty to star in The Judge, a new drama about a hot-shot lawyer who returns to his hometown after the death of his mother. This week BoxOffice takes a closer look at the commercial prospects for The Judge

The Judge
(Warner Bros.)

PROS:

- Downey Jr.'s star power has exploded since he first suited up as Iron Man.
- Adult crowds will welcome this serious drama with open arms. It has "Oscar Bait" written all over it. 
- Never underestimate the power of a well-executed drama. 

CONS:

- Opening one week after Gone Girl could prove daunting if that thriller breaks out in a major way.
- Downey Jr. has had his share of dramatic duds pre-Iron Man.

Check out our predictions for this film and others in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Addicted Oct 10, 2014 Lionsgate
$11,000,000 $24,000,000
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day Oct 10, 2014 Disney
$21,000,000 $74,000,000
The Judge Oct 10, 2014 Warner Bros.
$22,000,000 $83,000,000
Annabelle Oct 3, 2014 Warner Bros. / New Line
$18,000,000 $41,000,000
Left Behind (2014) Oct 3, 2014 Freestyle Releasing
$13,000,000 $0
Gone Girl Oct 3, 2014 Fox
$25,000,000 $90,000,000
The Equalizer Sep 26, 2014 Sony / Columbia
$35,000,000 $110,000,000
The Boxtrolls Sep 26, 2014 Focus
$14,000,000 $59,000,000
Tusk Sep 19, 2014 A24
$4,000,000 $8,000,000
This Is Where I Leave You Sep 19, 2014 Warner Bros.
$13,000,000 $39,000,000
The Maze Runner Sep 19, 2014 Fox
$21,000,000 $52,000,000
A Walk Among the Tombstones Sep 19, 2014 Universal
$17,000,000 $49,000,000
No Good Deed (2014) Sep 12, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems
$11,000,000 $25,000,000
Dolphin Tale 2 Sep 12, 2014 Warner Bros.
$18,000,000 $62,000,000
As Above/So Below Aug 29, 2014 Universal
$13,000,000* $27,000,000
The November Man Aug 27, 2014 Relativity Media
$9,000,000* $22,000,000
When the Game Stands Tall Aug 22, 2014 Sony / TriStar
$13,000,000 $40,000,000
Frank Miller's Sin City: A Dame To Kill For Aug 22, 2014 Weinstein / Dimension
$15,000,000 $32,000,000
If I Stay Aug 22, 2014 Warner Bros. / New Line
$19,000,000 $53,000,000


*four-day weekend

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.  

Tags: The Judge, predictions

2 Comments

  • theBigE on 16 August 2014

    The Judge will open north of $30M, count on it. Middle America will love this film.

    • norbar on 19 August 2014

      It's a drama. It would be hard to make above 30M only on middle america. I'll wait for more of their marketing campaign to see how they position it but so far I think even 22mil is generous. Though if they are smart it could do well

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