Friday Estimates & Weekend Projections: ‘Kingsman: The Golden Circle’ Targeting $40M Debut; ‘IT’ Holding Strong w/ $29.5M; ‘LEGO Ninjago’ Falling Short w/ $22M

Saturday Update: Kingsman: The Golden Circle got off to a strong start Friday with an estimated $15.325 million opening day in first place. That comes in 47 percent ahead of its predecessor’s $10.43 million first day in February 2015, as well as 40 percent ahead of John Wick: Chapter 2‘s $10.965 million opening day earlier this year. Fox is projecting the overall domestic opening weekend will ring in around $40 million, although the sequel’s Thursday night-to-Friday multiplier suggests it could come in slightly shy of that with actual results on Monday morning. Either way, this is a strong debut for the anticipated sequel to one of 2015’s surprise hit action films and helps to continue September 2017’s record box office pace.

IT remained a force to be reckoned with entering its third weekend with $9.08 million yesterday, down 53 percent from last Friday. That brings its domestic total up to an amazing $245.42 million in just 15 days of release. Its third frame is on track to earn around $29.5 million with potential to eclipse the $30 million mark.

Debuting in third place yesterday, The LEGO Ninjago Movie posted a lukewarm $5.8 million first day gross — 60 percent below that of LEGO Batman‘s $14.5 million first day and 47 percent under Hotel Transylvania‘s $10.97 million first day in September 2012. We had projected Ninjago to open significantly higher based on various tracking and pre-sales reports, but the film is the first in the franchise having to overcome mixed critical reactions (53 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and audience reception (68 percent on Flixster). To be fair, Warner Bros. was more conservative in their expectations entering the weekend. As the only major animated title opening between now and Thanksgiving’s Coco, we still expect a very healthy multiplier, but it will unfortunately fall short of pre-release expectations. Opening weekend looks to check in around $22 million.

Meanwhile, Friend Request debuted to $750,000 yesterday, coming in just slightly below our final expectations before the weekend as the horror title struggled to overcome stiff competition with IT. The studio is projecting a $2.2 million opening weekend, although we’re a bit more conservative at this stage with a $1.9 million expectation.

Weekend projections are listed below. Updated estimates from the studios will be posted Sunday morning.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $40,000,000 4,003 $9,993 $40,000,000 1 Fox
2 It (2017) $29,500,000 -51% 4,007 -96 $7,362 $265,838,881 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
3 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $22,000,000 4,047 $5,436 $22,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
4 American Assassin $6,000,000 -60% 3,154 0 $1,902 $25,929,459 2 CBS Films / Lionsgate
5 Home Again $3,400,000 -34% 2,685 -351 $1,266 $22,435,831 3 Open Road
6 mother! $3,200,000 -58% 2,368 0 $1,351 $13,369,018 2 Paramount
7 Friend Request $1,900,000 2,573 $738 $1,900,000 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
8 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $1,850,000 -48% 2,037 -1235 $908 $73,597,979 6 Lionsgate / Summit
9 Wind River $1,250,000 -51% 1,431 -1188 $874 $31,637,749 8 The Weinstein Company
10 Spider-Man: Homecoming $1,100,000 -41% 1,006 -430 $1,093 $331,893,662 12 Sony / Columbia
11 Leap! $970,000 -55% 1,301 -1115 $746 $20,272,554 5 The Weinstein Company

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Stronger $1,500,000 574 $2,613 $1,500,000 1 Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
2 Brad’s Status $1,000,000 1012% 453 449 $2,208 $1,113,337 2 Annapurna Pictures Releasing
3 Annabelle: Creation $640,000 -73% 682 -1435 $938 $101,016,696 7 Warner Bros. / New Line
4 Dunkirk $600,000 -54% 678 -800 $885 $186,309,307 10 Warner Bros.
5 Despicable Me 3 $550,000 -36% 539 -444 $1,020 $261,853,915 13 Universal
6 The Emoji Movie $425,000 -58% 573 -578 $742 $84,576,121 9 Sony / Columbia
7 War for the Planet of the Apes $245,000 -30% 306 -164 $801 $146,232,454 11 Fox
8 The Dark Tower $210,000 -72% 358 -877 $587 $50,365,475 8 Sony / Columbia
9 Baby Driver $205,000 -31% 252 -129 $813 $107,416,560 13 Sony / TriStar
10 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $174,000 -62% 341 -505 $510 $28,369,432 7 Open Road
11 All Saints $130,000 -65% 293 -457 $444 $5,577,807 5 Sony Pictures
12 Cars 3 $120,000 -28% 114 -145 $1,053 $152,444,757 15 Disney
13 The Big Sick $116,000 -63% 122 -216 $951 $42,717,107 14 Lionsgate
14 The Glass Castle $110,000 -69% 219 -479 $502 $17,034,336 7 LionsgateLionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Battle of the Sexes $480,000 21 $22,857 $480,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 Hazlo Como Hombre $45,000 -71% 50 -176 $900 $2,458,505 4 Lionsgate / Pantelion
3 Tulip Fever $34,000 -71% 90 -157 $378 $2,343,129 4 Weinstein Company
4 47 Meters Down $22,000 -56% 56 -43 $393 $44,269,239 15 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

===

Friday Update: Fox reported this morning that Kingsman: The Golden Circle landed with $3.4 million from Thursday night’s first shows beginning at 7PM at approximately 3,100 locations. By comparison, this comes in over 54 percent ahead of John Wick: Chapter 2‘s $2.2 million Thursday night launch earlier this year, The studio notes it’s even further ahead of The Equalizer ($1.45 million), The Magnificent Seven ($1.75 million), and the original Kingsman: The Secret Service ($1.4 million). Of course, the latter three films weren’t sequels, so direct comparisons are stretched when viewed against Golden Circle.

Should the anticipated sequel play out over the weekend on a similar trajectory as the Wick sequel, an opening weekend in our previously forecast range of $40-45 million is likely, but word of mouth from Friday onward will be key toward that goal.

Also launching last night was Friend Request to the tune of an estimated $110,000. Entertainment Studios’ second release came in well below the $740,000 of 47 Meters Down (although that debuted in the middle of summer).

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. opted not to hold Thursday night screenings for The LEGO Ninjago Movie with schools back in session across the country. That film, plus the continued impressive run of IT will easily mark the top three films this weekend.

Follow Boxoffice on Twitter for continued updates throughout the weekend, and check back here on Saturday morning for key Friday estimates from the studios and initial weekend estimates.

Boxoffice Staff

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