Will 'Frozen' Hit $1 Billion Globally?

on January 30, 2014

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By Daniel Loria

Frozen has an outside shot at becoming the next billion dollar global earner for Disney. The Walt Disney Animation release crossed the $800 million global mark last weekend with two big overseas markets remaining on its schedule: China on February 5 and Japan on March 15. BoxOffice looks at the film's financial prospects in the coming weeks:

North America

A sing-along version of Frozen will screen in 2,057 of the 2,754 theaters showing the animated film this weekend and is already leading ticket sales for online seller Fandango. The new version is expected to become a box office catalyst as the film goes after the $400 million mark domestically, a number it will have to reach in order to contend for the billion-dollar mark globally. The Super Bowl will likely cut into the weekend's Sunday numbers despite the promising early ticket sales online. Frozen has a realistic chance to hit $380 million in North America but it will depend on the lasting success of the sing-along version to lift it to $400 million.

China

Animated films have ruled the Chinese box office in 2014 with Despicable Me 2 and local title Boonie Bears sharing the top spot over the first three weekends of the year. Walt Disney Animation couldn't muster up a hit with its previous Chinese release, Wreck-It Ralph, and walked away with a very modest $10 million take from the market. Monsters University fared better with a $34 million tally, a closer number to what Frozen can expect from China. A release during the Chinese New Year helps Frozen's financial prospects in China, but don't count on the film matching the $50 million-plus performance of Despicable Me 2 in the market. A $35 million cume from China is a safe bet for Frozen, a number which could go up to $40 million if it can provide solid holds late in its run.

Japan

Wreck-It Ralph took a $3.6 million debut from a similar release date last year, finishing its Japanese run with a $30 million cume. That figure fits in with a larger trend for comparable titles in Japan; Despicable Me 2 took $24 million from the market and Tangled finished its run with a $31 million total. Monsters University is a monster exception to this trend, but the Disney/Pixar prequel has to be considered an anomaly after claiming a blockbuster $90 million run in Japan. Frozen should provide a slight improvement over Ralph, Despicable Me 2, and Tangeld with an estimated $35 million total.

Remaining Overseas Markets

Frozen took $16.7 million from 16 territories in its overseas premiere. The film hasn't registered an overseas weekend under the $20 million mark since.

Frozen - Overseas Weekend Performance

  • WEEKEND 1: $16.7M - 16 Territories
  • WEEKEND 2: $30.6M - 23 Territories
  • WEEKEND 3: $31.5M - 25 Territories
  • WEEKEND 4: $35.1M - 33 Territories
  • WEEKEND 5: $50.5M - 43 Territories
  • WEEKEND 6: $52.5M - 49 Territories
  • WEEKEND 7: $27.8M - 50 Territories
  • WEEKEND 8: $24.6M - 52 Territories
  • WEEKEND 9: $20.2M - 52 Territories

Frozen's overseas numbers have been winding down over the first three weekends of the year. The film should continue its steady dip in form in the coming weeks, but it can expect about another $50 million from its current list of territories. Frozen could realistically finish its overseas run in the $590 million range but it will need around $600 million overseas to contend for the $1 billion global mark.

Tags: Frozen

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