NORTH AMERICA: 4-Day Studio Estimates: 'X-Men: Days of Future Past' Arrives with Strong $111.0M; 'Blended' Stumbles with $18.2M

on May 26, 2014

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Monday Update: Fox's X-Men: Days of Future Past debuted in first place this weekend with a strong estimated $111.0 million take over the four-day holiday frame. That was towards the lower end of the massive pre-release expectations for the highly anticipated 3D comic book sequel. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Days of Future Past delivered the fifth largest four-day Memorial Day weekend take of all-time (behind only 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, 2006's X-Men: The Last Stand, 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and last year's Fast & Furious 6). The revised three-day weekend estimate for X-Men: Days of Future Past is $91.4 million. That represents the fourth largest three-day debut of 2014 thus far.

Compared to previous X-Men films, Days of Future Past is running a very impressive 83 percent stronger than the $60.55 million four-day start of 2011's X-Men: First Class and 10 percent below the $122.86 million four-day debut of X-Men: The Last Stand (though it should be noted that neither of those films had the advantage of higher priced 3D admissions). X-Men: Days of Future Past received a strong A rating on CinemaScore and will hope to hold up better than previous X-Men films going forward thanks in part to the early positive audience reaction and its very strong critical reviews.

After exceeding expectations last weekend, Warner's Godzilla came back down to earth a bit this weekend with an estimated second place four-day take of $39.45 million. The 3D sci-fi action remake was down a sizable 58 percent from last weekend's three-day frame. Clearly, mixed word of mouth, natural fan-driven front-loading and the new competition from Days of Future Past all took a toll on Godzilla this weekend. With that said, Godzilla has still grossed a strong $156.79 million through eleven days of release. That places the film 4 percent behind the $163.61 million eleven-day take of 2011's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. The revised three-day weekend estimate for Godzilla is $31.13 million.

Warner Bros. had far less impressive results with Blended, as the comedy starring Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore opened in third place with an estimated $18.19 million over the four-day frame. Blended opened below its already relatively modest expectations for a film starring Sandler. Audiences weren't in the mood for another pairing of Sandler and Barrymore and the film's very poor critical reviews didn't help matters either. It should be noted that with an A- CinemaScore and strong early holding power as the weekend went on, Blended appears to be going over better with audiences than it has with critics. But after such a soft debut and with Universal's A Million Ways to Die in the West arriving this coming Friday, word of mouth likely won't help Blended out much in the long run. The revised three-day weekend estimate for Blended is $14.23 million.

Fellow comedy Neighbors placed in fourth over the four-day frame with an estimated $17.2 million. The successful modestly budgeted Universal release continued to display signs of front-loading, as it was down 31 percent from last weekend's three-day frame. While holding power for Neighbors has been underwhelming thus far, in the bigger picture the film has already grossed a very impressive $116.88 million through 18 days of release. The three-day estimate for Neighbors remains at $13.9 million.

Sony's The Amazing Spider-Man 2 rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated four-day take of $10.0 million. The expensive 3D superhero sequel was down a significant 40 percent from last weekend, as it clearly took a direct hit from the release of X-Men: Days of Future Past. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has grossed $187.10 million in 25 days, as it continues to be hampered by poor holding power. The three-day estimate for the film remains at $7.8 million.

In its second weekend, Disney's Million Dollar Arm placed in sixth with an estimated four-day take of $8.71 million. The modestly budgeted baseball drama held up well this weekend, as it was down just 17 percent from last weekend's three-day start. Million Dollar Arm has grossed $22.24 million in eleven days, which is on the lower end of pre-release expectations. The revised three-day estimate for Million Dollar Arm is $6.97 million.

Sunday Update: Fox's X-Men: Days of Future Past debuted in first place this weekend with a strong estimated $90.70 million take over the three-day frame. The highly anticipated and pricey 3D comic book sequel debuted towards the lower end of its massive pre-release expectations and successfully brought the X-Men franchise back into the box office spotlight with its debut. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Days of Future Past delivered the fifth largest three-day Memorial Day weekend take of all-time (behind only 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, 2006's X-Men: The Last Stand, 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and last year's Fast & Furious 6). Fox's current estimate for the four-day frame is $110.0 million.

X-Men: Days of Future Past registered the fourth largest debut of 2013 thus far. It should be noted that unlike each of the three films in front of it (Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Godzilla and The Amazing Spider-Man 2), Days of Future Past didn't have the advantage of receiving a boost from higher priced IMAX admissions. Compared to previous X-Men films, Days of Future Past opened a very impressive 65 percent stronger than the $55.10 million debut of 2011's X-Men: First Class and 12 percent below the $102.75 million debut of X-Men: The Last Stand (though it should be noted that neither of those films had the advantage of higher priced 3D admissions).

X-Men: Days of Future Past opened with $36.0 million on Friday (which included an estimated $8.1 million from Thursday night grosses), fell 18 percent on Saturday to take in an estimated $29.58 million and is estimated to decline 15 percent on Sunday to take in an estimated $25.13 million. That places the film's estimated three-day weekend to Friday ratio at 2.52 to 1. X-Men: Days of Future Past received a strong A rating on CinemaScore and will hope to hold up better than previous X-Men films going forward thanks in part to the early positive audience reaction and its very strong critical reviews.

After exceeding expectations last weekend, Warner's Godzilla came back down to earth a bit this weekend with an estimated second place take of $31.43 million. The 3D sci-fi action remake was down a sizable 66 percent from last weekend. Clearly, audience overlap between Godzilla and X-Men: Days of Future Past helped boost initial demand for Godzilla last weekend. This weekend's hold also suggests that Godzilla hasn't gone over quite as well with audiences as was initially believed last weekend. With that said, Godzilla has still grossed a strong $148.77 million through ten days of release. That places the film 3 percent behind the $153.42 million ten-day take of 2011's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. BoxOffice is currently projecting a $39.5 million four-day weekend for Godzilla.

Warner Bros. had far less impressive results with Blended, as the comedy starring Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore opened in third place with an estimated $14.25 million over the three-day frame. Blended opened below pre-release expectations, which had already been scaled back for a film starring Sandler. Audiences weren't in the mood for another pairing of Sandler and Barrymore and the film's very poor critical reviews didn't help matters either. Compared to recent Sandler films, the debut for Blended was much closer to the $13.45 million start of 2012's That's My Boy than it was to the $25.00 million debut of 2011's Jack and Jill. BoxOffice is currently projecting a $17.9 million four-day weekend for Blended.

Blended opened with $4.41 million on Friday, increased 18 percent on Saturday to take in $5.18 million and is estimated to fall 10 percent on Sunday to gross $4.66 million. That places the film's estimated three-day weekend to Friday ratio at 3.23 to 1. It should be noted that with an A- CinemaScore, Blended appears to be going over better with audiences than it has with critics. But after such a soft debut and with Universal's A Million Ways to Die in the West arriving this coming Friday, word of mouth likely won't help Blended out much regardless.

Fellow comedy Neighbors placed in fourth over the three-day frame with an estimated $13.9 million. The modestly budgeted Universal release starring Seth Rogen, Zac Efron and Rose Byrne continued to display signs of front-loading, as it was down 45 percent from last weekend. While Neighbors has been front-loaded thus far, the film has already grossed a very impressive $113.58 million through 17 days of release (especially with its price tag in mind). Universal's current estimate for the four-day frame is $17.3 million.

Sony's The Amazing Spider-Man 2 rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated three-day take of $7.8 million. The expensive 3D superhero sequel was down a significant 54 percent from last weekend, as it clearly took a direct hit from the release of X-Men: Days of Future Past. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has grossed $184.90 million in 24 days, as it continues to be hampered by poor holding power. Sony's current estimate for the four-day frame is $10.0 million.

In its second weekend, Disney's Million Dollar Arm placed in sixth with an estimated three-day take of $7.09 million. The modestly budgeted baseball drama held up well this weekend, as it was down 33 percent from last weekend. Million Dollar Arm has grossed $20.63 million in ten days, which is on the lower end of pre-release expectations. Disney's current estimate for the four-day frame is $8.87 million.

Saturday Update: Fox reports that X-Men: Days of Future Past took in $36.0 million in its opening day yesterday. From that figure, BoxOffice projects the mutant sequel will tally $93 million for the three-day frame and $112.5 million through Monday's Memorial Day. The opening day number is just behind Godzilla's $38.4 million and Captain America: The Winter Soldier's $36.9 million first days as the third best of 2014 so far.

Word of mouth for the X-Men follow-up looks very strong. The film's Flixster audience score is still hovering around 95 percent this morning--tying Winter Soldier for 2014's highest score after one day of release. Critics have also praised the film with a strong 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes score, while audiences gave it a strong "A" CinemaScore. X-Men flicks have typically been frontloaded in the past, but with what appears to be the franchise's strongest reception across both fans and general audiences, Days of Future Past has enough going for it to potentially break from that trend. The relative lack of action movies (excluding next week's Edge of Tomorrow) opening over the next month should also work to its long-term advantage.

Meanwhile, Blended is off to a rocky start. The third pairing of Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore has failed to catch the former's usually reliable audience, earning a soft $4.41 million yesterday (in line with That's My Boy's $4.55 million first day two summers ago). BoxOffice projects the comedy will bring in $13.7 million over the three-day weekend and $17 million for the four-day.

Word of mouth also appears to be struggling with Blended's Flixster score down to 67 percent as of Saturday morning. Combined with critics' poor 15 percent Rotten Tomatoes score, and a very crowded market, the film isn't likely to have much life beyond the holiday weekend. Some good news for the flick: audiences awarded it an "A-" CinemaScore.

Meanwhile, Godzilla took a 77 percent hit from its opening day last week to $8.84 million yesterday. Although competition from X-Men certainly is a major factor in the large decline, word of mouth for the monster reboot has been decidedly mixed since its debut. The King of Monsters has grossed a very healthy $126.2 million thus far. BoxOffice projects $32 million three-day and $40 million four-day frames.

Friday Update #1: Sources tell BoxOffice that X-Men: Days of Future Past is trending for an opening day in the $38-40 million range based on early matinees and pre-sales. Should the pace hold, Fox's tentpole mutant sequel would top Godzilla's $38.4 million as the best opening day of the year so far. The extended holiday weekend skews projections somewhat with Sunday essentially behaving like a second Saturday. Still, based on past Memorial Day performers and considering the strong buzz for the pic, the X-Men sequel looks on target for a three-day weekend north of $95 million and a four-day haul that could reach $115 million.

Meanwhile, Adam Sandler's and Drew Barrymore's third pairing isn't fairing well in early business. Sources report that Blended may bring in a soft $4 million today for projected $12 million three-day frame and $16 million through Monday. However, Sandler's audience is typically driven by families, so a significant bump in evening business isn't out of the question.

More updates as they come...

Previously: Sources report that X-Men: Days of Future Past grabbed a strong $8.1 million from Thursday night shows in front of its Memorial Day weekend launch.

While that figure falls short of Captain America: The Winter Soldier's $10.2 million and The Amazing Spider-Man 2's $8.7 million Thursday starts, those films began shows at 8pm and 7pm, respectively. Days of Future Past started later at 10pm.

More direct comparisons are that of last summer's The Wolverine, which bowed to $4 million from 10pm Thursday shows as part of a $53.1 million opening weekend, and Fast & Furious 6 ($6.5 million from 10pm shows; $117 million 4-day Memorial weekend). Overall, last night's launch represents the best start for any film in the X-Men franchise and sets it on course for a big holiday weekend.

With very healthy reviews from critics (currently 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), Fox is hoping both fans and general audiences will turn out over the weekend and beyond for the highly anticipated time-travelling sequel. Should the early buzz and positive word of mouth continue spreading, Days of Future Past has a fair chance to top The Winter Soldier's $95 million opening for, potentially, the best debut of 2014 so far.

Check back later today for an early report on overall Friday business and initial weekend projections.

Tags: X-Men: Days of Future Past, Blended, north-america, Godzilla

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