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NORTH AMERICA: Studio Estimates: 'The Maze Runner' Easily Leads with Strong $32.5M; 'A Walk Among the Tombstones' #2 with $13.1M; 'This Is Where I Leave You' #3 with $11.9M on September 20, 2014

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Sunday Update: As was widely expected, Fox's The Maze Runner debuted comfortably in first place this weekend with an estimated $32.5 million. The modestly budgeted young adult adaptation opened in line with expectations and performed well with its price tag in mind. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, The Maze Runner delivered the sixth largest opening weekend performance of all time for the month of September. The Maze Runner opened 20 percent stronger than the $27.02 million start of last year's Ender's Game and going forward is likely to hold up better than Ender's Game did in part from facing relatively softer competition.

The Maze Runner debuted with $11.25 million on Friday (which included an estimated $1.1 million from late night shows on Thursday), increased 19 percent on Saturday to gross $13.43 million and is estimated to fall 42 percent on Sunday to gross $7.83 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at an encouraging 2.89 to 1. The Maze Runner received an A- rating on CinemaScore, which is also an encouraging early sign.

The Maze Runner grossed $3.3 million from 351 IMAX locations this weekend. That represented 10.2 percent of this weekend's overall gross.

After this weekend's performance, Fox has scheduled The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials for release on September 18, 2015.

A Walk Among the Tombstones debuted in second place with an estimated $13.13 million. Universal's modestly budgeted action thriller starring Liam Neeson opened on the low end of pre-release expectations. A Walk Among the Tombstones opened softer than Liam's recent vehicles; including 33 percent softer than the $19.67 million debut of 2012's The Grey. A Walk Among the Tombstones opened with $4.7 million on Friday (which included an estimated $0.43 million from late night shows on Thursday), increased a modest 8.5 percent on Saturday to take in $5.1 million and is estimated to decline 35 percent on Sunday to gross $3.33 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.79 to 1. The audience breakdown for the film was nearly evenly split between genders (51 percent female, 49 percent male) and skewed heavily towards moviegoers 25 years and older (77 percent). A Walk Among the Tombstones received a lackluster B- rating on CinemaScore and is likely to take a significant hit next weekend when Sony's anticipated The Equalizer arrives in the marketplace this coming Friday.

Warner's This Is Where I Leave You opened in third place with an estimated $11.86 million. The modestly budgeted comedy starring Jason Bateman and Tina Fey opened in line with its modest expectations. This Is Where I Leave You opened 12 percent below the $13.53 million start of 2011's The Change-Up. This Is Where I Leave You started with $3.9 million on Friday, increased a very solid 28 percent on Saturday to take in $4.98 million and is estimated to decline 40 percent on Sunday to gross $2.99 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 3.04 to 1. The audience breakdown for the film skewed towards female moviegoers (63 percent) and heavily towards moviegoers over the age of 25 (86 percent). This Is Where I Leave You received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore.

Sony's No Good Deed was down three spots and 58 percent from last weekend's first place debut to place in fourth with an estimated $10.2 million. While the low-budget thriller starring Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson experienced a sharp second weekend decline, in the bigger picture the film is still performing well with a ten-day take of $40.11 million. That places No Good Deed 6 percent ahead of the $37.75 million ten-day gross of 2009's I Can Do Bad All By Myself (which fell 58 percent in its second weekend to gross $9.88 million).

Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $9.01 million. The family sequel from Warner Bros. was down 43 percent from last weekend, as it was unable to duplicate the second weekend strength of 2011's Dolphin Tale (which fell just 27 percent in its second weekend to gross $13.91 million). Dolphin Tale 2 has grossed a respectable $27.07 million in ten days, but is currently running 27 percent behind the $37.18 million ten-day take of Dolphin Tale.

Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy placed in sixth with an estimated $5.18 million. The blockbuster sci-fi superhero film from Marvel was down 36 percent from last weekend. With a massive 52-day take of $313.67 million, Guardians of the Galaxy is set to soon surpass the $318.41 million unadjusted final gross of 2008's Iron Man.

On the limited front, A24's Tusk was off to a very soft start with an estimated $0.89 million from 602 locations. That gave the low-budget Kevin Smith directed horror film a per-location average of just $1,472 for the frame.

Saturday Update: Fox reports that The Maze Runner picked up an estimated $11.25 million on Friday, a very healthy jump from its modest $1.1 million Thursday night shows (included in Friday's gross). BoxOffice projects the latest young adult adaptation will net around $31 million this weekend--already nearly matching its $34 million production budget. By comparison, Maze's opening day was 14 percent ahead of Ender's Game ($9.8 million) and 51 percent behind Divergent ($22.8 million). Early word of mouth appears very healthy with an 82 percent Flixster score, on par with Divergent's 81 percent.

Liam Neeson's A Walk Among the Tombstones bagged $4.7 million on opening day--27.5 percent behind the $6.5 million first day of The Grey in January 2012, but also 87 percent stronger than Killing Them Softly's $2.5 million first day. Unfortunately, early word of mouth appears mixed with a 66 percent Flixster score. BoxOffice is projecting a solid $14 million weekend for the Universal release.

Warner Bros.' ensemble dramedy This Is Where I Leave You posted $3.91 million on Friday, 6 percent behind Trouble with the Curve's $4.2 million first day and 90 percent ahead of Admission's $2.05 million bow. The film's 70 percent Flixster score leaves a bit to be desired, although this isn't necessarily a film aimed toward the online crowd. As adult audiences are expected to turn out over the weekend, BoxOffice projects an $11.6 million opening frame.

Last week's top film, No Good Deed, sank an expected 67 percent from opening day to $2.95 million. With $32.9 million in the bank through 8 days of release, the Sony thriller has performed ahead of pre-release expectations as it leads the pace of The Call by 32 percent. BoxOffice projects a $9.6 million second weekend.

Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five as it slipped 50 percent from last week's opening day gross to $2.14 million on Friday. By comparison, the first flick eased 32 percent from its first-to-second Friday. The family-friendly sequel has tallied $20.2 million in its first 8 days, 24.5 percent off the pace of its 2011 predecessor. BoxOffice projects an $8.0 million sophomore frame.

Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy was off 35 percent from last Friday to $1.38 million yesterday. The year's top grosser so far is projected to bring in another $5.3 million for the weekend as a whole. With $309.9 million in the bank through Friday, its 50th day of release, Guardians stands 2.6 percent ahead of the pace the original Iron Man.

On the expansion front, The Drop took in $645,000 yesterday as it expanded into 1,192 theaters (up from 809 last week). Yesterday's haul was down 56 percent from opening day. To date, the film has grossed $6.3 million. BoxOffice projects $2.1 million for the current frame.

Unfortunately, no Friday estimates were made available for Kevin Smith's Tusk at the time of publication. The director's latest film opened in 602 theaters this weekend.

Check BoxOffice on Sunday for official weekend estimates from the studios.

Friday Update #2: Early reports suggest The Maze Runner is trending for an opening weekend around $24 million based on Friday business. The west coast isn't yet a factor in that projection, though. Unfortunately, it's looking like the latest young adult adaptation will fall well short of tracking, but Fox is still likely in the black thanks to a modest production budget.

Liam Neeson's A Walk Among the Tombstones could net around $15 million this weekend as he continues to prove his box office drawing power. While it doesn't quite match the star's recent openers, the gritty flick was always going to be harder sell than the mainstream-friendly likes of Non-Stop and Taken.

Last but not least, This Is Where I Leave You is pacing for an opening weekend close to $10 million.

We'll have official studio estimates for Friday's grosses tomorrow morning, along with more concrete weekend projections. Check back then.

Friday Update #1: Sources report that The Maze Runner hauled in $1.1 million from Thursday night shows. That's a far cry from Divergent's $4.9 million Thursday start earlier this year and conflicts with this week's reports of strong weekend tracking in the $40 million+ range. The early bow also fell under Ender's Game's $1.4 million last November (onward to a $27 million weekend). As Friday progresses, the hope is that young audiences will turn out after school hours instead--a significant possibility given that Maze debuted at 10pm last night. Fortunately, the film's $34 million production budget means huge numbers aren't necessarily required for success.

Meanwhile, A Walk Among the Tombstones posted $428,000 last night. By comparison, fellow Liam Neeson thriller Non-Stop earned $720,000 on Thursday as part of a $28.9 million weekend back in February.

NORTH AMERICA: 'No Good Deed' Takes in a Healthy $29.9M in its First Week on September 19, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Sony's No Good Deed took in $1.05 million on Thursday to lead the daily box office for a seventh straight day. The low-budget thriller from Screen Gems starring Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson fell 11 percent from Wednesday. No Good Deed was off to a very nice start this week with a stronger than expected first place seven-day take of $29.91 million. That places the film 7 percent ahead of the $25.96 million seven-day take of 2009's I Can Do Bad All By Myself and 35 percent ahead of the $22.20 million seven-day gross of last year's The Call.

Guardians of the Galaxy held steady in second place with $0.558 million. The blockbuster sci-fi superhero adaptation from Disney and Marvel was down 5 percent from Wednesday, which represented one of the day's stronger daily percentage holds among wide releases. Guardians of the Galaxy placed in third for the week with $10.60 million. That was down just 21 percent from the previous week and brings the seven-week total for the film to a massive $308.49 million.

Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out its first week of release with a third place take of $0.459 million. The family film sequel from Warner Bros. fell 9 percent from Wednesday's performance. Dolphin Tale 2 placed in second for the week with a seven-day start of $18.06 million. That is on the low end of pre-release expectations and places the film 22 percent behind the $23.27 million seven-day gross of 2011's Dolphin Tale.

Fox's Let's Be Cops was up one spot from Wednesday to place in fourth on Thursday with $0.319 million. The low-budget action comedy was down 8 percent from Wednesday. Let's Be Cops claimed fifth place for the week with $5.85 million. The film was down only 22 percent from the previous frame and has grossed a very solid $74.52 million in 37 days of release.

Fox Searchlight's The Drop was down one spot from Wednesday to round out Thursday's top five with $0.294 million. The crime drama starring Tom Hardy, Noomi Rapace and the late James Gandolfini fell a concerning 20 percent from Wednesday. The Drop still performed well for the week as a whole, with a sixth place seven-day start of $5.64 million while playing in a modest 809 locations.

'Maze Runner' Ready For Success on September 18, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Thursday Morning Update: The Maze Runner took it easy again on Wednesday as it fell 8 tweets from its Tuesday tally of 12,375 tweets - not very inspiring as face value. Facebook continued to impress though as it rose by over 30k to 865k likes. While its Twitter numbers have not increased much on the week its still good to see a film which is based off a young adult novel generate the type of awareness to rake in over 10,000 tweets each day. The timing is right here for the film I believe and we here at Box Office have it pegged to open with $37 million and easily walk away with the weekend crown.

A Walk Among The Tombstones fell 2% to 2,227 tweets on Tuesday, down from 2,366 tweets the day before while Facebook had another miniscule rise to 279,084 likes, up less than .5% from 278,342 likes. By comparison, Liam Neeson's last film Non-Stop had 3,235 tweets and 391,653 likes its Wednesday before release. We are predicting a $14 million start for the film on the weekend which will likely allow it to turn a profit after its worldwide dollars are counted, thereby giving Liam Neeson yet another win in a genre he has dominated in the past 5 years.

This Is Where I Leave You was the only new opener to see an increase on Wednesday as it rose 7% to 1,860 tweets, up from 1,727 tweets on Tuesday, while Facebook grew to 206,049 likes, up from 203,857 likes the day before. By comparison, director Shawn Levy's last film The Internship had 3,320 tweets and 261,380 likes on its Wednesday before release. Nothing special here at all to suggest breakout status, and while our predicted $11.5 million is a respectable total it would mark the lowest opening total of Levy's storied career.

Kevin Smith's Tusk has had a tough week on social media as it hasn't even bested 600 tweets on any day and its Facebook like total stand at under 50,000. I'm surprised they went with as wide release as they did with the film and might have been better off having a more limited release and letting word of mouth build. We are predicting $1.8 million for the film by the end of the weekend.

Twitter Top 15 Movies for Wednesday September 17th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue-Wed %
1 (-) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 33,344 19,736 213,108 -40.81%
2 (-) If I Stay 15,942 14,939 45,503 -6.29%
3 (-) The Maze Runner 12,375 12,367 38,801 -0.06%
4 (+3) Annabelle 6,029 10,940 23,502 81.46%
5 (+1) Guardians of the Galaxy 7,680 7,287 24,459 -5.12%
6 (+16) The Judge 1,038 6,956 8,558 570.13%
7 (-3) Avengers: Age of Ultron 11,638 5,983 22,458 -48.59%
8 (-3) Into the Woods 9,582 5,614 16,784 -41.41%
9 (-1) Interstellar 5,844 4,641 11,141 -20.59%
10 (-1) No Good Deed (2014) 4,692 3,389 13,820 -27.77%
11 (-1) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 3,173 2,752 10,219 -13.27%
12 (-1) Before I Go to Sleep 2,967 2,397 8,700 -19.21%
13 (-1) A Walk Among the Tombstones 2,366 2,227 5,308 -5.87%
14 (+6) Star Wars: Episode VII 1,388 2,226 4,783 60.37%
15 (-1) The Equalizer 1,983 2,131 5,463 7.46%
18 (-) This Is Where I Leave You 1,727 1,860 5,444 7.70%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

NORTH AMERICA: 'No Good Deed' Tops $28.8M in 6 Days; 'Dolphin Tale 2' Stands at $17.6M on September 18, 2014

sep12.pngSony reports that No Good Deed took in $1.18 million on Wednesday, off 35 percent from the day prior. That gives the thriller a 6-day haul of $28.9 million, an impressive start for the pic which is running 7 percent ahead of the pace of Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself and 37 percent ahead of The Call.

Guardians of the Galaxy posted another $0.59 million yesterday for a 19.5 percent drop from last Wednesday. The Disney/Marvel blockbuster continues to show aggressive staying power in the post-summer market as its domestic tally has now reached $307.9 million. The film is running 3 percent ahead of the pace of the original Iron Man.

Warner Bros.' Dolphin Tale 2 grabbed $0.51 million yesterday as it was off 28 percent from Tuesday. The family-driven sequel has earned $17.6 million in its first six days, 18.5 percent less than its 2011 predecessor.

Fox Searchlight's The Drop continues to impress in limited release. The Tom Hardy/James Gandolfini thriller added $0.37 million from 809 locations yesterday for a strong $453 per-theater average. With $5.35 million in the bank through six days of release, the film will expand into wider release starting this weekend.

Rounding out the top five, Let's Be Cops grossed $0.35 million for a 21 percent week-to-week drop. The comedy has certainly found its audience since opening in August, ringing up $74.2 million to-date.

 

'Maze Runner' Not Looking Back on September 18, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Wednesday Morning Update: The Maze Runner continued to lead the pack on Tuesday despite dropping 12% to 12,375 tweets. Facebook on the other hand had a very hefty increase of 25k+ to 837k likes. By comparison, The Hunger Games had 37,820 tweets and 3,054,892 likes its Tuesday before release, Divergent had 75,277 tweets and 1,060,953 likes, while The Giver had 6,777 tweets and 374,863 likes. While its Twitter numbers are nothing extraordinary its Facebook tallies are hard to ignore and really point to  a strong beginning.

A Walk Among The Tombstones had a strong increase on Tuesday of 230% to 2,366 tweets while Facebook also somewhat less encouraging with a sub 1% rise to 278,342 likes. By comparison, Non-Stop had 3,895 tweets and 384,224 likes its Tuesday before release, while Prisoners had 471 tweets and 98,890 likes. The film is lagging notably to recent Neeson thrillers and while I have it a ways above Prisoners its important to note that because of the latter's very common name a more restrictive search string had to be employed to weed out unrelated tweets and served as a limiter to its numbers (in fact Non-Stop also employed quite a restrictive string and still handily beat out Tombstones too). I see a decent opening here of low to mid double figures but nothing approaching $20 million given these signs.

This Is Where I Leave You had a 7% fall to 1,727 tweets on Tuesday, down from 1,857 tweets on Monday, while Facebook grew to 206,409 likes, up from 203,857 likes the day before. By comparison, The Other Woman had 9,149 tweets and 147,093 likes its Tuesday before release, while The Internship had 4,971 tweets and 247,638 likes. The dwindling tweet totals are somewhat of a worry as is the lag between its Facebook likes and director Shawn Levy's last film The Internship. Double digits still look to be assured but as of right now I'd say it looks to be bringing up the rear amongst the new openers once the weekend dollars are tallied.

Twitter Top 15 Movies for Tuesday September 16th

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon-Tue %
1 (-) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 160,028 33,344 193,372 -79.16%
2 (-) If I Stay 14,622 15,942 30,564 9.03%
3 (-) The Maze Runner 14,059 12,375 26,434 -11.98%
4 (+3) Avengers: Age of Ultron 4,837 11,638 16,475 140.60%
5 (+9) Into the Woods 1,588 9,582 11,170 503.40%
6 (-2) Guardians of the Galaxy 9,492 7,680 17,172 -19.09%
7 (-2) Annabelle 6,533 6,029 12,562 -7.71%
8 (+22) Interstellar 656 5,844 6,500 790.85%
9 (-3) No Good Deed (2014) 5,739 4,692 10,431 -18.24%
10 (-2) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 4,294 3,173 7,467 -26.11%
11 (-2) Before I Go to Sleep 3,336 2,967 6,303 -11.06%
12 (+15) A Walk Among the Tombstones 715 2,366 3,081 230.91%
13 (+4) Gone Girl 1,344 2,085 3,429 55.13%
14 (+2) The Equalizer 1,349 1,983 3,332 47.00%
15 (-3) Ouija 2,253 1,920 4,173 -14.78%
18 (-5) This Is Where I Leave You 1,857 1,727 3,584 -7.00%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.


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