By Phil Contrino, Jonathan Papish, and EntGroup Consulting
Even though San Andreas is doing extremely well in China-the disaster flick has earned an impressive $56 million in its first week-its run in first place will come to an abrupt end thanks to the emergence of Jurassic World which opens Wednesday, two days ahead of the North American release.
Universal's reboot and fourth installment in the wildly popular dinosaur franchise is set to become a massive global hit. The science fiction film's performance in China will contribute a large chunk to a sum that could end up past $800 million worldwide if everything connects in other key markets. We're currently predicting that Jurassic World will cross $300 million in North America alone. In China, demand for Jurassic World is clearly very high. The 3D-release of the original Jurassic Park film earned an impressive $56.5 million back in 2013. Star Chris Pratt is very popular in China thanks to the success of Guardians of the Galaxy, and his visit to Beijing recently along with Bryce Dallas Howard and director Colin Trevorrow generated decent buzz for the flick. According to EntGroup's EFMT Marketing Index, Jurassic World boasts the highest awareness, intent to purchase and word of mouth of any new release.
While San Andreas and Jurassic World could end up competing for similar demographics, we're betting there's enough room in the market for both, especially with Chinese schools just letting out for the summer. San Andreas will likely score $100 million+ by the end of its run and it shouldn't be a problem for Jurassic World to do the same. How much more than $100 million will depend on word of mouth. Early estimates show about $1.2 million for Wednesday midnight shows so the film is off and running.
Only two new films will try to compete with San Andreas and Jurassic World: Zai Jian Wo Men De Shi Nian (再见我们的十年), a small-budget effort staring Mike Sui, and Who Am I? (我是谁2015) a film aimed at the young male crowd. Expectations are low for both titles.
Update: A press release from Fandango:
LOS ANGELES - June 9, 2015 - According to Fandango, the nation's leading digital destination for moviegoers and fans with more than 36 million unique visitors per month*, "Jurassic World" smashes this week's Fanticipation movie buzz indicator with a score of 97 out of 100 points, while also dominating the weekend's ticket sales. The highly-anticipated fourth movie in the "Jurassic Park" franchise is currently outselling all Summer 2014 blockbusters, including Chris Pratt's previous hit "Guardians of the Galaxy," plus "Godzilla," "X-Men: Days of Future Past," "Captain America: The Winter Soldier," and "Transformers: Age of Extinction," at the same point in those films' sales cycles on Fandango. "Jurassic World" currently represents more than 90% of the weekend's ticket sales.
According to a survey of more than 1,000 "Jurassic World" moviegoers on Fandango:
* 92% would visit a "Jurassic World" theme park if one existed;
* 87% are Chris Pratt fans;
* 84% identify the "Jurassic Park" series as one of their favorite sci-fi adventure franchises;
* 74% have seen at least one "Jurassic" movie on the big screen;
* 66% have been awaiting a new "Jurassic" movie ever since seeing "Jurassic Park III;"
* 52% picked the new hybrid dinosaur, Indominus Rex, as the creature they're most looking forward to seeing in "Jurassic World."
"'Jurassic' fans have waited 14 years for their beloved action franchise to return to theaters," says Fandango Chief Correspondent Dave Karger. "Built-in audience excitement, plus the addition of arguably the hottest star working today, is resulting in through-the-roof advance ticket sales for ‘Jurassic World.'"
To celebrate the release of "Jurassic World," the Fandango MovieClips team calculates how much it would cost to run your own "Jurassic" theme park in the real world ($23,432,400,000 construction, with annual repeating costs of $11,907,000,000, not including the cost of cleaning up dinosaur poop) - and offers a memorable montage of the series' scariest movie moments in "The Ultimate ‘Jurassic' Franchise Mashup."
About Fandango's Fanticipation
Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango's movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango's advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment.
*According to comScore
Previously: According to MovieTickets.com, domestic box office advance ticket sales for "Jurassic World" currently tops the list accounting for 52% of all tickets sold by the company in the last 24 hours. "Spy" is next up at 13% of all tickets sold in the last 24 hours followed by "San Andreas" coming in at 6%.
For the most current data, be sure to check the company website's "Trending Now" feature found at www.movietickets.com. You can follow the company on Twitter for updates as well: @MovieTickets.
By Daniel Garris
As had been widely expected, Fox's Spy debuted in first place this weekend with $29.09 million. However, the Melissa McCarthy led comedy opened below expectations, which had tended to range from $35 million to $40 million. Despite very strong critical reviews, Spy wasn't able to open as strong as some of McCarthy's previous efforts, as it opened 26 percent below the $39.12 million start of 2013's The Heat and 16 percent below the $34.55 million debut of 2013's Identity Thief. The potential for Spy appears to have been limited by the stronger than expected performance of Warner's San Andreas thus far and by audiences who are waiting for Universal's Jurassic World to arrive next weekend.
Spy took in $10.30 million on Friday (which included an estimated $1.5 million from Thursday shows that started at 5 p.m.), increased 9 percent on Saturday to gross $11.18 million and declined 32 percent on Sunday to gross $7.60 million. That placed the film's opening weekend to Friday ratio at a so-so 2.82 to 1. The film received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. In all likelihood Spy will hold up well going forward, as McCarthy's films have a history of displaying strong holding power. However, competition will be fierce throughout June with the arrival of the mentioned Jurassic World, Disney's Inside Out and Universal's Ted 2.
On the heels of last weekend's break-out start, San Andreas experienced a very respectable second weekend hold with a second place take of $25.84 million. The Dwayne Johnson led 3D disaster film declined 53 percent from last weekend. San Andreas is on the brink of the $100 million domestic mark with a ten-day start of $98.47 million. That places the film 22 percent ahead of the $80.88 million ten-day take of 2013's G.I. Joe: Retaliation and 20 percent behind the $123.70 million ten-day gross of 2013's World War Z. San Andreas will hope to see its healthy word of mouth help withstand the direct hit it will take from Jurassic World next weekend.
Focus' Insidious: Chapter 3 followed in third place with $22.69 million. The third chapter of the horror franchise from Gramercy and Blumhouse Productions debuted on the low end of pre-release expectations. Insidious: Chapter 3 opened a significant 44 percent below the $40.27 million debut of 2013's Insidious: Chapter 2; but had been widely expected to open softer than its predecessor due in part to its nature as a prequel. Insidious: Chapter 3 opened nearly on par with the $22.62 million three-day start of Fox's Poltergeist and the close proximity of the films to one another may have ultimately weakened any break-out potential for both.
Insidious: Chapter 3 opened with $10.46 million on Friday (which included an estimated $1.55 million from Thursday evening shows), fell a sizable 27 percent on Saturday to gross $7.61 million and declined 39 percent on Sunday to gross $4.63 million. That placed the film's opening weekend to Friday ratio at an expectedly front-loaded 2.17 to 1. Insidious: Chapter 3 received a B+ rating on CinemaScore, which is very healthy by horror film standards. Going forward Insidious: Chapter 3 will hope to hold up a bit better than its predecessor did (a feat that was accomplished by The Purge: Anarchy last summer).
Meanwhile, Warner's Entourage was off to a soft fourth place start of just $10.28 million. The theatrical version of the HBO comedy series opened below expectations, which had been strengthened due in part to the film's strong online pre-sales earlier in the week. Since its release on Wednesday, Entourage has grossed $17.67 million in its first five days. That places the film 28 percent behind the $24.48 million five-day start of 2012's The Dictator. Entourage has been very front-loaded thus far, especially for a film of its size. The film's five-day to three-day ratio of 1.72 to 1 strongly indicates that the film is only appealing to the series' pre-existing fanbase and isn't a good sign going forward. Given its significant front-loading thus far, the film's strong A- rating on CinemaScore likely won't make much of an impact.
Fellow Warner Bros. release Mad Max: Fury Road rounded out the weekend's top five with $7.83 million. The critically acclaimed action film starring Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron was down a respectable 45 percent from last weekend. Thanks in part to very solid holding power for its genre, Mad Max: Fury Road continues to perform on the very high end of expectations with a 24-day take of $130.67 million.
Universal's Pitch Perfect 2 claimed sixth place with $7.57 million. The successful musical comedy sequel starring Anna Kendrick was down a sizable 49 percent from last weekend. While it remains front-loaded, in the bigger picture Pitch Perfect 2 is still exceeding expectations in a big way with a 24-day gross of $160.85 million.
Disney's Tomorrowland placed in seventh with $7.20 million. The pricy Brad Bird directed sci-fi film starring George Clooney was down a sharp 50 percent. Tomorrowland has grossed a softer than expected $76.41 million in 17 days and has clearly taken a hit from mixed word of mouth on the heels of what was already an underwhelming start over Memorial Day weekend.
By Alex Edghill
Monday Evening Update: Minions repeated atop the weekly like board this past week with a net gain of 74,589 likes. It was one of the lowest totals of the year to lead the weekly leaderboard as no big new trailers or announcements dropped to speak of.
It was a close fight for the top as Paper Towns finished just 51 tweets behind Minions. The film has remained off the radar for much of the last couple months after it saw some hefty bumps thanks to earlier trailers. The main comparison here I'm looking at is The Fault In Our Stars which had around 1.5 million likes six weeks prior to its release. Even with an opening of half Stars (~$25 million) you would have to think that the studio would be happy considering the lack of star power and undoubtedly small budget.
Third place was only 2,000 likes away from top spot as Ted 2 continued to have a strong run on Facebook. At 21.6 million likes it is second only to Minions amongst upcoming films which we are tracking, yes even ahead of titans such as Star Wars and Hunger Games. That's the good news. If we look a little closer we can see its actually only seen a 600k like increase in 2015 which puts it not even in the top 15 on the year so far. It still has a few weeks left to release and considering that the original made over $500 million worldwide this is going to do well regardless of how the critics respond but whether it can match the heights of the first remain to be seen.
Inside Out made its first appearance in the top 5, barely, as it rose to just over 200k likes. With just a week and a bit till release this is really flying under the radar. Early buzz has been overwhelmingly positive and with it appealing primarily to a younger non-Facebook demographic these lower numbers don't necessarily mean anything bad. By comparison, Big Hero 6 had a very similar ~240k likes the same distance before release. I expect a solid opening and great legs into the Summer for the film.
Facebook Top 5 Movies by Like Increase for the last week Ending Sunday June 8th
|2||09/25/15||Hotel Transylvania 2||8,982,461||8,829,201||153,260||1.74%|
|4||07/01/15||Magic Mike XXL||1,852,444||1,811,752||40,692||2.25%|
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Jonathan Papish @ChinaBoxOffice
Updated with studio actuals 6.8.15
San Andreas rocked the global box office again this weekend, holding on to the top spot with $97.7 million from ~24,015 screens across 68 markets. The Dwayne Johnson vehicle has grossed $188.5 million overseas and $286.97 million globally. San Andreas opened well across Asia with China accounting for an estimated $34 million over the weekend and $51 million since its opening Tuesday. Despite public health concerns over MERS, South Korea came in at #1 with $7.25 million from 851 screens, and Hong Kong shook up $2.3 million for 72% of the weekend box office from 85 screens.
Among holdovers, Mexico continues to perform well, dropping just 34% from last weekend for an impressive $6.7 million from 2,655 screens and $21.3 million total. Brazilian cinemas welcomed moviegoers over their Corpus Christi holiday with $3.0 million from 782 screens, raising the cume to $7.5 million after two weekends. San Andreas came in at #1 in France ($1.5 million/$5.25 million cume), Argentina ($1.9 million, $4.3 million cume), Colombia ($1.35 million/$3.8 million cume), Chile ($1.2 million/$3.15 million cume), and Peru ($1.0 million/$3.2 million cume), and #2 in the UK/Ireland ($2.7 million/$12.9 million) and Germany (1.0 million/$3.8 million cume). San Andreas opens June 26 in Spain.
Paul Feig and Melissa McCarthy had international audiences in stitches this weekend as Spy netted $25.43 million from 7,937 screens across 65 territories, raising its overseas cume to $56.37 million and its global tally to $85.45 million. Strong openings include #1 in the UK/Ireland with $3.92 million on 530 screens (93% of Bridesmaids and 150% of The Heat), #1 in Russia with $3.17 million on 1,616 screens (more than double the lifetime gross of Bridesmaids), #2 in Mexico with $1.69 million on 944 screens (the biggest opening weekend ever for Paul Feig/Melissa McCarthy), and #1 in Germany with $1.34 million on 599 screens (117% of The Heat). Spy also had the highest grossing opening weekend for a Paul Feig/Melissa McCarthy collaboration in Brazil ($994K on 305 screens), UAE ($1.01 million on 53 screens), Thailand ($720K on 267 screens), Holland ($427K on 97 screens), Norway ($406K on 160 screens), Ukraine ($433K on 167 screens), Sweden ($368K on 139 screens), Peru ($298K on 95 screens), Denmark ($282K on 68 screens), and Central America ($297K on 133 screens). The comedy held well in South Korea ($2.15 million/$14.56 million cume) despite a MERS scare affecting the overall market. Australia came in at #3 in its third weekend of release down just 26% from last weekend ($1.57 million/$7.86 million cume). Spy opens in France on June 17.
Tomorrowland posted an estimated $13.8 million in its third weekend of international release from 77 territories. The Disney sci-fi/adventure flick has now grossed $93.5 million after opening in all of its planned overseas markets and $169.7 million globally. Tomorrowland opened at #1 this weekend in Japan with an estimated $2.1 million, regaining the top spot for Disney after Cinderella lost her throne last weekend. China, the film's top performing overseas territory, tumbled 83% from its first weekend for $1.45 million and a disappointing 13-day total of $17.8 million. Tomorrowland's international breakdown: Russia ($7.4 million), UK/Ireland ($7.4 million), Mexico ($5.1 million), France ($4.9 million), Italy ($3.0 million), Germany ($2.7 million), Spain ($2.4 million), Australia ($2.3 million), Taiwan ($2.2 million), Thailand ($2.1 million), Japan ($2.1 million), South Korea ($1.8 million), Brazil ($1.6 million) and other territories ($30.6 million).
Doraemon Stand By Me continued its surprising run in China this weekend with $13.45 million for a total of $73 million after 11 days of release. Doraemon's China haul has now surpassed its entire Japanese run ($66.7 million) and sits as the third highest grossing animated film of all-time in China behind Big Hero 6 ($84.63 million) and Kung Fu Panda 2 ($94.75 million).
Mad Max: Fury Road guzzled down an additional $11.1 million this weekend from 6,985 screens in 70 international territories. The well-received action flick from Aussie George Miller is up to $184.1 million overseas and $314.76 million globally. Top ten markets are: South Korea ($2.5 million/$27.2 million cume), UK/Ireland ($1.2 million/$24.1 million cume), Australia ($1.2 million/$14.8 million cume), France ($1.05 million/$15.5 million cume), Brazil ($994K/$10.4 million cume), Germany ($518K/$8.2 million cume), Russia ($374K/$12.9 million cume), and Mexico ($279K/$7.65 million cume). There is still no confirmed released for China.
Avengers: Age of Ultron pulled in another $7.0 million in its seventh weekend of overseas release from 91 territories. It has now grossed $910.2 million overseas and $1.3482 billion globally to become the 5th highest grossing film of all-time. Ultron's international breakdown: China ($233.6 million), South Korea ($82.2 million), UK/Ireland ($72.8 million), Mexico ($50.4 million), Brazil ($47.7 million), Russia ($33.4 million), France ($33.3 million), Germany ($32.3 million), Australia ($31.1 million), Italy ($18.4 million), Taiwan ($18.4 million), Hong Kong ($18.3 million), India ($16.8 million), the Philippines ($14.1 million), Argentina ($13.9 million), Malaysia ($13.3 million), Spain ($13.0 million), Thailand ($11.6 million), and other territories ($155.4 million). Ultron opens in Japan on July 4.
With an estimated $4.6 million from 46 territories this weekend, the Barden Bellas of Pitch Perfect 2 have now sung their way to the tune of $89 million overseas and $250 million worldwide. The UK and Ireland, where the ladies took 5th place with $1.2 million this weekend, tops all international territories with a 24-day total of $25.2 million. Fat Amy's (actress Rebel Wilson) home country of Australia grossed $765k this weekend for a 31-day total of $20.8 million, while Germany - home to the acapella group battling the Barden Bellas - earned $655K for a 25-day total of $10.3 million. Pitch Perfect 2 still has 12 more stops on its worldwide tour. Chile is next on June 25.
Poltergeist terrified international audiences into coughing up another $2.92 million from 3,070 screens across 42 territories this weekend. The horror remake from 20th Century Fox is up to $24.31 million overseas and $68.62 million globally. Brazil is the top performing territory and grabbed $959K this weekend from 456 screens for $5.18 million after three weekends of release.
Entourage crashed the party in six international markets this weekend grossing an estimated $3.1 million from 454 screens. The big screen adaptation of HBO's hit series is up to $20.9 million globally. Australia was friendliest to Vince and his boys, tossing them $2.6 million from 310 screens for the top spot Down Under. Entourage rolls up to the UK/Ireland on June 19.
Bollywood hit PK held well again in China this weekend, dropping 40% for $2.2 million and $16.44 million after 17 days of release. The comedy starring Aamir Khan beat out Tomorrowland despite playing on fewer screens.
DreamWorks Animation's Home found $2.15 million from 1,854 screens in 45 territories. It has made $202.87 million overseas and $374.79 million globally.
Films with less than $2 million overseas this weekend (Weekend Total/Overseas Total/Global Total
Aloha - $1.62 million/$1.65 million/$17.93 million
Woman in Gold - $996K/$12.14 million/$44.06 million
Furious 7 - $720K/$1.160 billion/$1.510 billion
The Longest Ride - $570K/$21.67 million/$58.91 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay (Part 1) - $504K/$417.1 million/$754.2 million
Kaaka Muttai - $467K/$467K/$467K
The Maze Runner - $380K/$244.28 million/$346.7 million
Far From The Madding Crowd - $379K/$10.92 million/$20.81 million
Ex Machina - $273K/$10.95 million/$34.88 million
Unfriended - $238K/$12.14 million/$44.63 million
The Nut Job - $143K/$55.5 million/$119.76 million
Suite Francaise - $49K/$8.99 million/$8.99 million
Paddington - $10K/$183.32 million/$259.37 million