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UPDATED: 'Rio 2' soars again on April 10, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Thursday Morning Update: Rio 2 continued its ascent on Wednesday with a 54% jump to 10,524 tweets, up from Tuesday's 6,814 tweets. By comparison, The LEGO Movie had 18,155 tweets its Wednesday before release, and Peabody And Sherman had 6,126. Two strong holds in a row on release week and favorable comparisons to the last two major family films all point to box office gold here. $40 million looks likely, which would be a shade over the $39 million the first opened to and actually a big win since sequels to animated films can often have trouble even matching the same levels of success. This would appear to be an exception.

Draft Day improved a further 26% on Wednesday to 2,106 tweets, up from 1,677 the day before. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had just 1,296 its Wednesday before release. There is no denying that there is a sizeable interest in the film this weekend which actually leads us here at Box Office to believe that it can top Oculus for second spot amongst the new openers. Expect $13.5 million for it and Costner's best opening weekend performance as top-liner since Open Range generated $14 million back in August of 2003 (I purposely skipped The Guardian since Ashton Kutcher was a large part of the draw there). Things are looking rosy for Mr. Costner once again in Hollywood.

Oculus recovered on Wednesday to post a 36% gain to 8,465 tweets up from 6,242 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones had a similar 8,743 tweets its Wednesday before release. The panic brought on by the drop yesterday has subsided somewhat thanks to this solid increase and it looks like $13 million will be possible. No its not the next Paranormal Activity but with strong reviews it should have solid word of mouth and if its backers are lucky it can translate that into a sequel or five for even bigger returns in the future. Insidious comes to mind as an apt comparison.

Top 15 Movies for Wednesday April 9th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue-Wed %
1 (+1) Divergent 69,535 76,404 204,206 9.88%
2 (-1) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 82,347 56,129 234,623 -31.84%
3 (+8) 22 Jump Street 4,278 32,156 42,298 651.66%
4 (+14) A Haunted House 2 2,184 30,631 36,793 1302.52%
5 (+26) The Purge: Anarchy 834 29,588 33,010 3447.72%
6 (+27) Think Like a Man Too 787 29,309 32,500 3624.14%
7 (-4) The Fault in Our Stars 17,720 12,817 58,389 -27.67%
8 (-4) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 10,026 11,974 34,290 19.43%
9 (-4) Rio 2 6,814 10,524 21,672 54.45%
10 (-) Noah 4,526 8,539 18,994 88.67%
11 (-5) Oculus 6,240 8,465 22,496 35.66%
12 (-) Avengers: Age of Ultron 4,274 6,144 15,089 43.75%
13 (-5) Maleficent 4,847 4,904 14,335 1.18%
14 (-5) Godzilla (2014) 4,603 2,938 17,552 -36.17%
15 (+7) X-Men: Days of Future Past 1,498 2,863 7,260 91.12%
21 (-) Draft Day 1,677 2,106 4,877 25.58%

Wednesday Morning Update: Rio 2 leapfrogged Oculus on Tuesday as it rose 57% to 6,814 tweets, up from 4,334 tweets on Monday. Strong jump for a family film which has really raised its stock in my eyes. By comparison, The LEGO Movie had 14,586 tweets its Tuesday before release, and Peabody And Sherman had 4,950. Interesting point to note is that both those comparison films saw Monday to Tuesday increases of under 22%, not to belabor the point but things are definitely looking up considering all the signs. 

Oculus stumbled a bit on Tuesday as it fell almost 20% to 6,242 tweets, down from Monday's 7,791 tweets. For the horror/supernatural genre a drop as large as this in its release week is usually never a good sign. By comparison, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones had 6,320 tweets its Tuesday before release. The numbers are still hefty which is encouraging but I'll be curious to see its returns tomorrow and if they drop again or rise once more. I still think double digits look likely but I'm afraid that there is going to be no breakout beyond that with a drop such as this in play.

Draft Day had a hefty 53% jump to 1,677 tweets, greatly improving on its return of 1,094 tweets from Monday. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had 1,293 tweets its Tuesday before release. This is another surprisingly strong return, enough so to make teen millions look like more than a possibility.

Top 15 Movies for Tuesday April 8th

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon-Tue %
1 (-) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 96,147 82,347 178,494 -14.35%
2 (-) Divergent 58,267 69,535 127,802 19.34%
3 (-) The Fault in Our Stars 27,852 17,720 45,572 -36.38%
4 (-) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 12,290 10,026 22,316 -18.42%
5 (+6) Rio 2 4,334 6,814 11,148 57.22%
6 (-) Oculus 7,791 6,240 14,031 -19.91%
7 (+19) Muppets Most Wanted 1,592 5,258 6,850 230.28%
8 (+2) Maleficent 4,584 4,847 9,431 5.74%
9 (-4) Godzilla (2014) 10,011 4,603 14,614 -54.02%
10 (-3) Noah 5,929 4,526 10,455 -23.66%
11 (-3) 22 Jump Street 5,864 4,278 10,142 -27.05%
12 (-3) Avengers: Age of Ultron 4,671 4,274 8,945 -8.50%
13 (-) The LEGO Movie 3,406 3,902 7,308 14.56%
14 (+10) Neighbors (2014) 1,737 3,738 5,475 115.20%
15 (+3) Guardians of the Galaxy 2,617 3,700 6,317 41.38%
21 (+8) Draft Day 1,094 1,677 2,771 53.29%

Tuesday Morning Update: Oculus began the week with 7,791 tweets which was up over 50% from Sunday, giving it top billing amongst this week's crop of new openers. Horrors and supernatural films have a history of generating a ton of buzz on Twitter and tend to have some of the largest tweet to box office dollar ratios. By comparison, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones had 5,214 tweets back in January for its Monday before release. This is indeed a promising start for the film as it attempts to tap into the horror demographic, one which has been largely underserved since January. As is the case with most films of the 'Indiewood' genre (i.e low budget feature films born from independent means outside of the major Hollywood studio system) all this really needs is a double digit opening to be a success and this is well on its way towards that goal based on its Monday returns.

Rio 2 finished a ways back on Monday with 4,334 tweets, up just under 40% from its Sunday returns. No its not close to Oculus, but when you consider that it is a family film and they have much less buzz in general, coupled with the fact that the first Rio film had just 593 tweets on its Monday before release you realize that this is actually a roaring start. By comparison, The LEGO Movie had 12,170 tweets its Monday before release while Mr. Peabody And Sherman had 4,081. Based on these two comparisons I'd say $30 million plus is a lock, though I'm not as confident that it has enough gas in the tank to eclipse the $40 million opening of the original.

Coming into the year Kevin Costner had been in three films in six and a half years, but Draft Day will mark his third film in the last three months. It finished way off the pace with 1,094 tweets on the day, and had the smallest increase of the new openers from Sunday of only 30%. It will appeal to primarily an older North American male audience. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had 785 tweets its Monday before release. Costner has always done well with the sports genre and with this ahead of 3 Days in the early goings it looks very likely that it will see double figures, and maybe even teen millions over the weekend. With a reported budget of $20 million this should allow it to be a profitable feature and no doubt continue the resurgence of Costner. Could he be the next Liam Neeson?

Top 15 Movies for Monday April 7th

Rk Film Sun Mon Sun-Mon %
1 (-) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 133,375 96,147 -27.91%
2 (-) Divergent 83,376 58,267 -30.12%
3 (-) The Fault in Our Stars 67,877 27,852 -58.97%
4 (+5) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 4,847 12,290 153.56%
5 (-) Godzilla (2014) 9,857 10,011 1.56%
6 (+2) Oculus 5,021 7,791 55.17%
7 (-1) Noah 7,276 5,929 -18.51%
8 (+9) 22 Jump Street 1,746 5,864 235.85%
9 (-5) Avengers: Age of Ultron 10,032 4,671 -53.44%
10 (+3) Maleficent 2,908 4,584 57.63%
11 (+1) Rio 2 3,116 4,334 39.09%
12 (+3) A Haunted House 2 1,856 3,978 114.33%
13 (-2) The LEGO Movie 3,286 3,406 3.65%
14 (+14) Hercules (2014) 1,073 3,114 190.21%
15 (+24) Chef 515 3,093 500.58%
29 (+2) Draft Day 844 1,094 29.62%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

NORTH AMERICA: 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' Leads Tuesday with $6.98M on April 09, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Captain America: The Winter Soldier remained comfortably in first place on Tuesday with $6.98 million. The 3D superhero sequel from Disney and Marvel increased a healthy 12 percent over Monday's performance. It should be noted that daily increases were strong in general on Tuesday due in part to Monday's grosses being deflated a bit from the NCAA Basketball Championship. With a strong five-day start of $108.22 million, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is currently running 7 percent ahead of the $101.399 million five-day take of last year's Thor: The Dark World. Captain America: The Winter Soldier will likely find itself in a fairly close race with Fox's Rio 2 for first place over the upcoming weekend.

Paramount's Noah held steady in second place with $1.64 million. The Darren Aronofsky directed biblical epic starring Russell Crowe increased 31 percent over Monday, but was still down a sharp 55 percent from last Tuesday, due in part to the momentum it lost once Captain America: The Winter Soldier entered the marketplace. With a twelve-day take of $75.28 million, Noah is currently running 8 percent behind the recent $82.17 million twelve-day gross of 300: Rise of an Empire.

Lionsgate's Divergent grossed $1.03 million to remain in third. The successful young adult adaptation starring Shailene Woodley was up 28 percent from Monday and down 47 percent from last Tuesday. Divergent has grossed $115.83 million through 19 days of release, thanks in part to relatively strong holding power for a young adult adaptation.

God's Not Dead took in $0.819 million to continue to claim fourth place. The break-out faith-based drama from Freestyle and Pure Flix was up 25 percent over Monday and up an impressive 1 percent over last Tuesday. With a stronger than expected 19-day take of $34.03 million, God's Not Dead is now on the verge of surpassing the $34.52 million final gross of 2011's Courageous.

Fox Searchlight's The Grand Budapest Hotel rounded out the day's unchanged top five with $0.680 million. The critically acclaimed Wes Anderson directed film was up a strong 35 percent over Monday and down just 16 percent from last Tuesday. The Grand Budapest Hotel has grossed $34.38 million in 33 days.

NORTH AMERICA: 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' Surpasses $100M Mark on Monday on April 08, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Captain America: The Winter Soldier comfortably remained in first place on Monday with $6.22 million. In the process, the 3D superhero sequel from Disney and Marvel surpassed the $100 million domestic milestone yesterday. Captain America: The Winter Soldier was down 73 percent from Sunday's performance. It should be noted that the marketplace in general took a bit of a hit on Monday from the NCAA Basketball Championship. With a strong four-day start of $101.24 million, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is currently running 5 percent ahead of the $96.16 million four-day take of last year's Thor: The Dark World.

Paramount's Noah placed in a distant second place with $1.26 million. The Darren Aronofsky directed biblical epic starring Russell Crowe was down 75 percent from Sunday and down a sharp 60 percent from last Monday. Noah has grossed $73.64 million in eleven days, but has clearly lost a lot of momentum once Captain America: The Winter Soldier entered the marketplace. Noah is currently running 8 percent behind the recent $80.14 million eleven-day gross of 300: Rise of an Empire.

Lionsgate's Divergent claimed third with $0.803 million. The young adult adaptation starring Shailene Woodley fell 74 percent from Sunday and 52 percent from last Monday. Divergent has grossed $114.81 million through 18 days of release. That places the film just 18 percent behind the $139.34 million 18-day start of 2008's Twilight.

God's Not Dead took fourth place with $0.655 million. The faith-based drama from Freestyle and Pure Flix was down 74 percent from Sunday and down a very slim 10 percent from last Monday. With a stronger than expected 18-day take of $33.21 million, God's Not Dead is now on the verge of surpassing the $34.52 million final gross of 2011's Courageous.

Fox Searchlight's The Grand Budapest Hotel rounded out the day's top five with $0.505 million. The critically acclaimed Wes Anderson directed film fell 68 percent from Sunday and 27.5 percent from last Monday. The Grand Budapest Hotel has grossed $33.70 million in 32 days.

NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Actuals: 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' Debuts with Record Breaking $95.0M on April 07, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Captain America: The Winter Soldier debuted with $95.02 million this weekend and in the process set a new opening weekend record for the month of April (which was previously held by 2011's Fast Five with $86.2 million). The highly anticipated superhero sequel from Disney and Marvel debuted in line with its lofty pre-release expectations, which tended to range from $85 million to $100 million heading into the weekend. Captain America: The Winter Soldier delivered the largest opening weekend of 2014 to date, as it easily surpassed the $69.05 million start of The LEGO Movie back in February.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened 11 percent ahead of the $85.74 million start of last year's Thor: The Dark World and an impressive 46 percent ahead of the $65.06 million debut of 2011's Captain America: The First Avenger. That represented a larger opening weekend percentage increase than the 30.5 percent The Dark World increased over the $65.72 million start of 2011's Thor. It should also be noted that this weekend's start for The Winter Soldier was likely deflated slightly by the semi-finals games of the NCAA Final Four on Saturday.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened with $36.93 million on Friday (with a sizable $10.2 million of that gross coming from late night shows on Thursday), fell an understandable 6 percent on Saturday to gross $34.67 million and declined 32 percent on Sunday to take in $23.43 million. That places the film's opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.57 to 1. The audience breakdown for The Winter Soldier skewed towards male moviegoers (64 percent) and towards moviegoers over the age of 25 (57 percent). The film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore.

Today Disney officially announced that it would be releasing Captain America 3 on May 6, 2016. As has been widely discussed, that is also the current release date for Warner's Untitled Superman and Batman Film.

On the heels of last weekend's stronger than expected start, Paramount's Noah held up poorer than widely expected this weekend with a second place take of $17.05 million. The Darren Aronofsky directed biblical epic starring Russell Crowe was down a sizable 61 percent. Clearly, moviegoers rushed out to see Noah before Captain America: The Winter Soldier arrived on the scene, while mixed word of mouth for Noah among moviegoers also appears to have taken a toll this weekend. With that said, Noah has taken in a very solid $72.39 million in ten days and could still stabilize next weekend with the debut of The Winter Soldier now out of the way. Noah is currently running 8 percent behind the recent $78.41 million ten-day start of 300: Rise of an Empire (which fell 57 percent in its second weekend to gross $19.20 million).

Holding up significantly better was Lionsgate's Divergent, which was down a very respectable 49 percent to place in third with $12.98 million. The young adult adaptation starring Shailene Woodley continues to display relatively strong holding power and has now grossed $114.01 million in 17 days thanks in part to that holding power. Divergent is currently running just 18 percent behind the $138.40 million 17-day start of 2008's Twilight.

God's Not Dead continued to hold up extremely well upon expanding further this weekend with a fourth place take of $7.76 million. The faith-based drama from Freestyle and Pure Flix was down a very slim 12 percent from last weekend. God's Not Dead continues to cement its standing as one of the biggest surprises of 2014 thus far with a 17-day take of $32.56 million. That already places the film on the verge of surpassing the $34.52 million final gross of 2011's Courageous.

Muppets Most Wanted rounded out the weekend's top five with $6.15 million. The latest Muppets film from Disney was down 46 percent. Muppets Most Wanted surpassed the $40 million mark this weekend and has grossed an underwhelming $42.00 million through 17 days of release.

Fox Searchlight's The Grand Budapest Hotel followed closely behind in sixth with $6.12 million. Upon expanding into additional locations this weekend, the Wes Anderson directed film fell 28 percent from last weekend. With a 31-day take of $33.196 million, The Grand Budapest Hotel is quickly approaching the $45.51 million final gross of 2012's Moonrise Kingdom.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman placed in seventh with $5.13 million. In the process, the 3D computer animated film from Fox and DreamWorks Animation surpassed the $100 million domestic mark this weekend. Mr. Peabody & Sherman has grossed a respectable $102.03 million in 31 days, but is likely to take a significant hit from the release of fellow Fox computer animated film Rio 2 this coming Friday.

On the platform front, A24's Under the Skin was off to a noteworthy start with $133,154 from 4 locations in New York and Los Angeles. That gave the sci-fi film starring Scarlett Johansson a promising per-location average of $33,289 for the frame. Under the Skin is scheduled to expand into additional locations this coming Friday.


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