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NORTH AMERICA: Weekend Studio Estimates: Saturday Takes a Hit from Winter Weather; 'The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug' Leads with $73.7 M; 'A Madea Christmas' Soft with $16.0 M; 'American Hustle' Strong in Platform Launch (4th Update) on December 13, 2013

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Sunday Update: Warner's The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug debuted in first place this weekend with an estimated $73.68 million. While that was a solid start, it was softer than widely expected and represented a significant 13 percent decline from the $84.62 million debut of last year's The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It should also be noted that The Desolation of Smaug (and the marketplace in general) looks to have taken a bit of a hit on Saturday from Winter Storm Electra. Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, The Desolation of Smaug still delivered the fourth largest opening weekend ever in the month of December (behind only An Unexpected Journey, I Am Legend and Avatar).

The Desolation of Smaug opened with $31.24 million on Friday (which included an estimated $8.8 million from midnight shows). The film fell 21.5 percent on Saturday to gross $24.52 million and is estimated to fall 27 percent on Sunday to take in $17.93 million. That gives The Desolation of Smaug an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 2.36 to 1, which was slightly above the 2.28 to 1 ratio of An Unexpected Journey. With this weekend's debut likely being deflated a bit by the weather, a solid A- CinemaScore rating and the holiday season ahead of it, The Desolation of Smaug will hope to hold up at least as well as An Unexpected Journey did. However, The Desolation of Smaug will also have to compete with a larger number of holiday wide releases than An Unexpected Journey did (there are nine films opening in wide release between now and Christmas this year, as opposed to seven wide releases during the same period last year).

The audience breakdown for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug skewed towards male moviegoers (60 percent) and moviegoers over 25 years old (64 percent). Desolation of Smaug skewed a bit more towards male and older moviegoers than An Unexpected Journey did. The film grossed $9.18 million from IMAX locations this weekend, which represented 12.5 percent of this weekend's overall gross. 3D grosses were responsible for 49 percent of this weekend's gross (which represented the same opening weekend 3D percentage as An Unexpected Journey).

Disney's Frozen held up quite nicely this weekend with an estimated second place take of $22.18 million. The blockbuster 3D computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation fell just 30 percent from last weekend. Frozen has grossed a very impressive $164.39 million after 19 days of wide release. That places the film 42.5 percent ahead of the $115.396 million 19-day take of 2010's Tangled (which fell 34 percent in its third weekend to gross $14.33 million). With a limited amount of family options entering the marketplace over the rest of the holiday season, Frozen should continue to hold up very well going forward.

Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas was off to a sluggish start this weekend with an estimated third place debut of $16.0 million. The latest Madea film from Lionsgate debuted well below pre-release expectations and easily delivered the softest debut ever for the Madea franchise (the previous low for a film starring Madea having been the $21.91 million debut of 2005's Diary of a Mad Black Woman). Making this weekend's debut even more surprising was the fact that A Madea Christmas had clearly been generating the highest level of online buzz ever for a Madea film. A Madea Christmas debuted 37 percent softer than the $25.39 million debut of last year's Madea's Witness Protection. The Madea franchise (and Perry's films in general) has historically been very front-loaded towards opening weekend. A Madea Christmas will hope to buck that trend with the aid of the holiday season, but whether it actually can remains to be seen.

A Madea Christmas grossed $5.74 million on Friday, increased 10 percent on Saturday to take in $6.33 million and is estimated to fall 38 percent on Sunday to gross $3.93 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.79 to 1. Like The Desolation of Smaug, A Madea Christmas received an A- rating on CinemaScore. The audience breakdown for A Madea Christmas skewed towards female moviegoers (67 percent) and towards moviegoers 25 years and older (63 percent).

Fellow Lionsgate release The Hunger Games: Catching Fire placed in fourth with an estimated $13.15 million. The blockbuster sequel starring Jennifer Lawrence fell 50 percent from last weekend. The film took a noticeable hit from the arrival of The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (and from losing IMAX screens), but didn't fall off the box office map either this weekend. Catching Fire has grossed a massive $356.98 million through 24 days of release. That places the film 6 percent ahead of the $336.67 million 24-day take of last year's The Hunger Games (which fell 36 percent in its fourth weekend to gross $21.10 million).

On the platform front, Sony's American Hustle was off to a terrific start this weekend with an estimated $690,000 from just six locations. That gave the David O. Russell directed awards season hopeful a per-location average of $115,000 for the frame. The platform launch of American Hustle was significantly stronger than the $300,010 four-location launch of The Fighter back in December of 2010. American Hustle is scheduled to be released in an estimated 2,500 locations next weekend.

In other platform news, Disney's Saving Mr. Banks debuted with $421,000 from 15 locations, while CBS Films' Inside Llewyn Davis grossed $344,000 from 15 locations in its second weekend of platform release. Respective per-location averages for the weekend were $28,067 for Saving Mr. Banks and $22,933 for Inside Llewyn Davis. Saving Mr. Banks is scheduled to be released in an estimated 2,200 locations next weekend, while Inside Llewyn Davis (which has grossed $0.898 million in ten days) will expand into additional locations next weekend.

Saturday Update: Warner Bros. reports that The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug earned an estimated $31.15 million on Friday, putting it on pace for a likely $75 million weekend. Those figures include the film's $8.8 million earned from midnight shows, representing just over 28 percent of opening day grosses--an improvement over the 35 percent midnight share of opening day for last year's An Unexpected Journey. IMAX accounted for 13 percent ($3.979 million) of Friday's haul. Overall, Smaug's opening day was 16 percent lower than its predecessor ($37.1 million).

Smaug's projected opening weekend will end up close to expectations following what looked to be lower grosses last night. Winter weather may be affecting things, although the lower share of midnights indicates that fans may have indeed been the audience sector where the most upfront demand was lost (as opposed to general audiences) in the wake of last year's mixed reception for the first Hobbit entry. Early word of mouth appears solid for Smaug so far with an "A-" CinemaScore and 88 percent of Flixster users liking or still anticipating seeing the film. With a crowded holiday schedule ahead, this second Hobbit pic is aiming to maintain most of its core family audience through Christmas and New Year's while also bringing in stronger overseas sales than Journey.

Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas grabbed an estimated $5.74 million yesterday as the comedy heads toward a $16 million debut. The opening day figure is noticeably down a sharp 43 percent from Madea's Witness Protection's $10.15 million in June 2012. Although it is another possible victim of winter weather, A Madea Christmas is generally underperforming compared to tracking and Perry's own personal reputation for strong openings from his Madea brand. That said, the holiday theme of the comedy makes it a candidate to attract his fans closer to the Christmas holiday and result in a more backloaded run than his films typically see. A Madea Christmas currently boasts a solid 83 percent approval/anticipation rating on Flixster.

On the platform front, Sony's American Hustle bowed to $210,909 from 6 locations yesterday for a $35,152 per-theater average. Hustle should bring in a fantastic $700,000 for the weekend before its wide expansion on December 20. The star-studded cast and director David O. Russell's recent success with Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter are paying off in a big way for one of the awards season's early favorites (nabbing 7 Golden Globe nominations this past week). By comparison, The Fighter tallied $98,521 on opening day from 4 locations ($24,630 per theater) on the same weekend three years ago.

Last, but certainly not least, Disney's Saving Mr. Banks also kicked off its run with a platform opening this weekend. The tale of the origins of Mary Poppins rang up an estimated $126,000 yesterday from 15 locations for an $8,400 per-theater average. That's in line with Finding Neverland's $8,125 first-day average from 8 locations back in November 2004. BoxOffice projects Saving Mr. Banks will take in $430,000 this weekend before it also expands nationwide next Friday

Friday Update #2: Early reports indicate that The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is headed for an underwhelming $66 million opening frame, which would put it far behind the $84 million debut that The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey managed last year. Saturday projections are pessimistic due to a winter storm that may keep many moviegoers home. Luckily, Smaug is already outpacing Journey overseas. Any domestic decline between the two films should be made up for by healthy receipts in key territories such as the UK, Germany, Russia, Brazil and China.

Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas may end up with a $15 million debut. Perry's Madea films are usually very reliable at the box office, and this would easily be the weakest opening of the bunch. 

Check back tomorrow for official studio estimates and updated projections. 

 

Friday Update #1: Warner Bros. reports that The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug took in $8.8 million from midnight shows, for the second-biggest midnight debut in December. $1.25 million of Smaug's haul came from IMAX shows. The debut represents quite a drop from the $13 million that The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey made from midnight shows in December 2012. 

GLOBAL: 'Catching Fire' Breaks into the Top 5 of 2013; '47 Ronin' Sinks in Japanese Debut on December 08, 2013

THGCFStill.jpgThe Hunger Games: Catching Fire scorched past the $300 million mark overseas and claimed a $673.4 million global total. The worldwide cume of The Hunger Games sequel surpassed Man of Steel's $662.8 million cume to become the fifth biggest release of the year at the global box office. Catching Fire only needed three weeks to break into the global top five of 2013 and has its sights set on overtaking Monsters University's $738.8 million for fourth place. 

A #1 opening across 555 locations in India added $730K to the film's overseas tally. The sequel only needed a single weekend to surpass the $610K lifetime gross of the original in India. The overseas cume for Catching Fire is $336.7 million. Top overseas markets for the sequel include the United Kingdom ($42.9M), Germany ($30.7M), China ($27.1M), Australia ($25.7M), and Russia ($22M).

Gravity surged to a $380 million overseas cume and a $631.5 million global cume. The sci-fi epic brought in $10.7 million from 47 markets over the weekend. The top overseas markets for Gravity include (China $64.6M), France ($46.6M), the U.K. ($39.1M), South Korea ($28.8M), and Russia ($21.2M). 

Thor: The Dark World is also part of the $600 million club at the global box office. The Thor sequel is in release in all territories except Japan, meaning the film will continue to post moderate gains before opening in its final territory on February 1, 2014. The Thor sequel added a combined $10.1 million from North America and the rest of the world in its sixth weekend. Thor: The Dark World has grossed $416.7 million overseas and $610.3M worldwide. The original Thor grossed $449 million worldwide, giving the sequel a 36% bump above its predecessor. The top overseas markets for the film include China ($51.3M), Russia ($36.2M), and the United Kingdom ($31.4M),

Keanu Reeves added another disappointment in one of Asia's top markets. The star's directorial debut, Man of Tai Chi, flopped in its highly-anticipated Chinese debut earlier this year. His latest project, 47 Ronin, posted an underwhelming $1.3 million bow across 333 dates in Japan. The film finished its debut weekend in third place behind fellow premiere Lupin v. Conan and hold-over Spec-Close-Reincarnation. The film will expand to Singapore and Malaysia on December 19 and will open in Indonesia the following day. 47 Ronin will reach North America on December 25 and will open in 15 territories, including the U.K. and Spain, on the last weekend of the 2013. 

Frozen collected $7.4 million from its debut in the United Kingdom to claim first place in the market. The film took $5.8 million from a 5-day weekend in France to post an $8.2 million bow, including previews. Frozen saw a 24% bump in its second frame in Spain that raises its cume in the country to $8 million. Frozen's results to date in Spain are ahead of all other animated releases of 2013. Germany continues to be the top market for the Disney film with $14.5 million. Frozen has grossed $55.9 million overseas and $190.1 million worldwide. 

A $4 million debut from 281 dates put About Time on top of the South Korean box office. South Korea is a difficult market for imports as local audiences are known to strongly support the country's domestic fare. About Time charmed South Korean viewers on its way to doubling the opening weekend numbers of Love Actually in the country. The romantic comedy opened in limited release in Mexico with a $247K take from 80 dates. Peru also saw a soft launch with a $100K bow from 35 dates. About Time has two more releases slated in Latin America: Brazil on December 20 and Venezuela on January 31, 2014. About Time has grossed $48.3 million overseas and $63 million worldwide.

The Counselor posted a strong hold in its second weekend in Spain. The star-studded thriller only experienced a 19% drop in its first hold after collecting $1.2 million over the weekend. The film has earned a total of $3 million in Spain. The Counselor has grossed $43.9 million overseas and $60.7 million worldwide. The thriller has two remaining markets left on its schedule: South Africa later this month and Italy in January.

Escape Plan posted weak openings in two major markets over the weekend. The film opened in fifth place in South Korea with an $886K bow from 273 screens. Spanish viewers weren't particularly interested in the Schwarzenegger/Stallone vehicle either; Escape Plan underwhelmed in Spain with a $760K bow across 272 screens for a sixth place finish. Escape Plan will expand to Latin America and Japan on January 10, 2014. The action flick has grossed $97.4 million overseas and 121.9 million worldwide.  

Epic slid down to fifth place in its second weekend in China with a $2 million hold. The animated film is reporting a $5.8 million cume after two frames in China. Epic has grossed $160.9 million overseas and $268.4 million worldwide.  

Bad Grandpa collected $1.5 million from 1,097 screens in 27 territories during its seventh weekend of release overseas. The Jackass comedy has grossed $39.3 million overseas and $138.5 million worldwide. 

Despicable Me 2 will challenge to reach the $1 billion mark in 2014. The animated sequel received the green light for a January 10, 2014 release in China, the biggest market outside of North America. Despicable Me 2 is currently posting a $551.4 million overseas total and is expected to surpass Shrek 2 ($919.8M) as the fourth highest grossing animated film of all time. The current global cume for Despicable Me 2 is $918.6 million.

Follow Daniel Loria and BoxOffice on Twitter for more news and updates on the global box office. 

NORTH AMERICA: Studio Weekend Estimates: 'Frozen' Moves into First with $31.6 Million, 'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' Takes Second with $27.0 Million; 'Out of the Furnace' Starts Soft with $5.3 Million (3rd Update) on December 06, 2013

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Sunday Update: In its second weekend of wide release, Disney's Frozen moved into first place with an estimated $31.64 million. With the 3D computer animated blockbuster from Walt Disney Animation moving ahead of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire in the weekend rankings, this weekend played out similarly to the post-Thanksgiving weekend frame back in 2010 when Tangled moved ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 in the rankings (albeit with significantly higher grosses this time around). Frozen fell a solid 53 percent from last weekend's three-day frame and continues to exceed its already lofty expectations with $134.28 million after twelve days of wide release. That places Frozen 39 percent ahead of the $96.57 million twelve-day start of Tangled, which fell 56 percent in its second weekend to gross $21.61 million. With strong word of mouth and a relatively limited amount of new competition for family audiences in December, Frozen is likely to hold up very well going forward.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire fell to second place with an estimated $27.0 million this weekend. Lionsgate's blockbuster sequel was down a hefty 64 percent fall from last weekend, which was quite understandable given the film's record breaking performance over Thanksgiving weekend. In comparison, Deathly Hallows: Part 1 fell 65 percent the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend to gross $17.02 million. With a massive 17-day start of $336.66 million, Catching Fire is running 38 percent ahead of the $244.52 million 17-day take of Deathly Hallows: Part 1 and 11 percent ahead of the $302.45 million 17-day gross of last year's The Hunger Games (which fell 43 percent in its third weekend to gross $33.11 million). It will be interesting to see whether or not Catching Fire is able to stabilize next weekend with the arrival of Warner's anticipated The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug in the marketplace on Friday.

Relativity's Out of the Furnace debuted in third place with a soft estimated take of $5.3 million. Despite a strong ensemble cast headlined by Christian Bale and Woody Harrelson, moviegoers simply weren't interested in the film. The weekend after Thanksgiving weekend is a notoriously tough frame to open new films, as audiences typically need a break after Thanksgiving weekend and before Christmas season releases enter the marketplace. Out of the Furnace opened 22 percent softer than the the $6.81 million start of last year's Killing Them Softly. While Out of the Furnace may hold up a bit better than Killing Them Softly did, it likely won't hold up all that well going forward given the amount of new competition for adult moviegoers entering the marketplace throughout the rest of December and the lackluster C+ rating it received on CinemaScore.

Disney's Thor: The Dark World placed in fourth with an estimated $4.74 million. Marvel's blockbuster superhero sequel was down 57 percent from last weekend. With a 31-day take of $193.64 million, Thor: The Dark World is running 14 percent ahead of the $169.12 million 31-day gross of 2011's Thor and is currently $6.36 million away from reaching the $200 million domestic milestone.

On the platform front, CBS Films' Inside Llewyn Davis was off to a very impressive start this weekend with an estimated $402,000 from just 4 locations. That gave the awards season hopeful from The Coen Brothers a massive per-location average of $100,500 for the frame. Inside Llewyn Davis easily delivered the largest per-location average ever for a Coen Brothers film in platform release and opened 60 percent stronger than the $251,337 six-location launch of 2009's A Serious Man (which had a per-location average of $41,890). Inside Llewyn Davis will begin expanding into additional locations on December 20.

In other box office news, Paramount's Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa will surpass the $100 million domestic mark on Sunday after grossing an estimated $0.855 million this weekend. The domestic total for the Johnny Knoxville led comedy stands at $100.056 million through Sunday.

Saturday Update: The post-Thanksgiving/first December weekend is historically a slow point in the holiday market, and this year is proving to be no exception.

Lionsgate reports this morning that The Hunger Games: Catching Fire earned $7.7 million on Friday, winning the day and putting it on track for a $27.5 million third weekend. To date, Catching Fire has earned $317.4 million domestically--12.5 percent ahead of the 15-day gross of the original Hunger Games.

Disney's Frozen claimed the runner-up spot on Friday with $6.815 million. It should, however, post strong enough Saturday and Sunday business to claim first place for the weekend when all is said and done. BoxOffice projects the hit animated film will tally $29 million in its sophomore weekend.

Through Friday, Frozen's 10th day of wide release, the pic has amassed an impressive $109.45 million. At the same point in release, Tangled had brought in 37 percent less (with $80.1 million) back in 2010. Aside from next week's The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, competition for Frozen's family audience will be minimal throughout December. Look for sustained leg growth over the holidays as Frozen continues its bid to become Disney's top animated film of the year (currently summer's Monsters University with $268.5 million domestically).

As expected, Relativity's Out of the Furnace got off to a soft start on Friday. The Christian Bale starrer grossed $1.88 million in its first day of wide release (having opened in 4 theaters on Wednesday). That's noticeably less than the $2.5 million Killing Them Softly drew in its first day over the same weekend last year and puts Furnace on pace for a $5.5 million debut.

Furnace was hoping to cash in on the goodwill of Bale and supporting actors Woody Harrelson, Zoe Saldana, and Casey Affleck, as well as director Scott Cooper's critical success from Crazy Heart. Unfortunately, reviews disappointed with 52 percent of critics giving the film a fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Early audience word of mouth doesn't appear strong either, with 68 percent of just over 17,000 Flixster users anticipating or having enjoyed the film.

Friday Update: Sources tell BoxOffice that Frozen will push The Hunger Games: Catching Fire out of first place this weekend.

Disney's latest animated flick is headed for as much as $36 million during its second weekend of wide release, which would put it at nearly $140 million in North America. 

Catching Fire looks poised to make as much as $34 million, and that means the $350 million domestic mark is not far off. 

Out of the Furnace could rope in $7 million during its first weekend of wide release.

More coming soon...

 


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