'Lucy' Out To Humble 'Hercules' on July 24, 2014


By Alex Edghill

Thursday Morning Update: Lucy had a solid 22% bump to 6,142 tweets on Wednesday, up from 5,038 on Tuesday. In addition, its 938k fans on Facebook by the end of the day make it one of the most liked original concepts of the last 5 years. This staves off any doubts I was having about it yesterday and really sets a path towards a very strong opening. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had 1,293 tweets and 78,489 likes its Wednesday before release, Hanna had 1,060 tweets and 60,774 likes, Transcendence had 4,252 tweets and 157,532 like, and Edge Of Tomorrow which had 14,541 and 410,380 likes. Looking to Facebook is something I have tried to incorporate more into my commentary in recent times and it seems especially applicable for films such as this with common titles which are difficult to track on Twitter. Overall its numbers are very strong, especially on Facebook and we believe that it will ride this all the way to $38 million on the weekend, thus becoming one of the biggest successes of the Summer. With a budget of only $40 million and strong oversea potential this has a shot at turning a serious profit in the months to come. Though critically acclaimed, director Luc Besson has never had a break out success while he has been behind the camera with his previous best opening and total being $17 million / $64 million for The Fifth Element. Lucy is about to redefine his financial successes as a director. 

Hercules finally showed an increase as it rose 27% to 11,016 tweets on Wednesday, up from 8,648 tweets on Tuesday and breaking a string of two successive days of decline to begin its release week. By comparison, The Legend Of Hercules had 1,330 tweets and 628,678 likes its Wednesday before release, Pompeii had 3,091 tweets and 150,997 likes, while 300: Rise OF An Empire had 9,533 tweets and 11.4 million likes (yes they piggy-backed off the page from the first movie so had a huge head start). While it has the weight of The Rock, Brett Ratner, and $110 million in budget under its belt it hasn't managed to really take off via social media as I would have expected for a Summer blockbuster tent pole. We are predicting $21 million for it over the weekend which, though much better than Legend Of Hercules and Pompeii, has got to go down as one of the bigger disappointments of the Summer.  

Twitter Top 15 Movies for Wednesday July 23rd

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue-Wed %
1 (+3) If I Stay 17,253 57,792 82,386 234.97%
2 (-1) Guardians of the Galaxy 30,606 23,619 80,741 -22.83%
3 (-) 22 Jump Street 18,466 17,712 44,620 -4.08%
4 (+3) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 11,499 16,171 33,442 40.63%
5 (+3) Fifty Shades of Grey 10,994 14,984 36,366 36.29%
6 (-) The Purge: Anarchy 13,000 13,260 43,603 2.00%
7 (+9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 2,662 12,991 18,357 388.02%
8 (-3) Dawn of The Planet of The Apes 14,797 12,664 49,321 -14.42%
9 (-) Hercules (2014) 8,648 11,016 29,106 27.38%
10 (-8) Transformers: Age of Extinction 19,335 9,102 38,953 -52.92%
11 (+3) Avengers: Age of Ultron 4,526 8,954 17,100 97.83%
12 (+1) Lucy 5,038 6,142 16,200 21.91%
13 (-2) Step Up All In 5,260 4,654 14,921 -11.52%
14 (-4) Maleficent 5,420 4,318 14,381 -20.33%
15 (-3) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) 5,196 3,915 12,166 -24.65%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

NORTH AMERICA: 'Dawn of the Planet of the Apes' Clears $150 Million in 13 Days; 'Transformers: Age of Extinction' Surpasses 'X-Men: Days of Future Past' As Summer's Top Grosser on July 24, 2014

apes.pngDawn of the Planet of the Apes added $3.9 million yesterday for a 42 percent week-to-week decline, giving the sequel $152.4 million domestically in its first 13 days. Dawn is running 33 percent ahead of the pace of its 2011 predecessor.

Universal reports that The Purge: Anarchy posted $2.6 million on Wednesday, off 28 percent from the day before. The thriller sequel has tallied $39.3 million in its first 6 days, or 6 percent less than its 2013 predecessor.

Planes: Fire and Rescue dropped just 9 percent to earn $2.1 million on Wednesday. The animated Disney sequel has totaled $23.8 million in its first 6 days, 20.5 percent less than last year's first flick.

Sex Tape accounted for $1.5 million yesterday, giving it a 6-day haul of $19.65 million. The R-rated comedy is lagging behind the pace of 2011's Bad Teacher by 54 percent.

Rounding out the top five, Transformers: Age of Extinction slid 39 percent from last week to $1.2 million yesterday. Michael Bay's fourth franchise entry has amassed $230.8 million domestically up to this point, overtaking X-Men: Days of Future Past ($230.79 million) as this summer's top domestic grosser so far.

Fandango: 'Lucy' Overpowers Competitors on July 24, 2014

lucy.pngLOS ANGELES - July 24, 2014 - According to Fandango, the nation's leading moviegoer destination, the Luc Besson-directed action epic, "Lucy," starring Scarlett Johansson, is on track to score big with weekend audiences, scoring 85 out of 100 points on the company's Fanticipation movie buzz indicator. The female-powered thriller leads the weekend's ticket sales on Fandango, and is outselling previous action thrillers, "Oblivion," "Elysium," and "Edge of Tomorrow" at the same point in the sales cycle.

"We've seen several big action movies this summer, but not many have been as unique and fun as ‘Lucy,'" says Fandango Chief Correspondent Dave Karger. "Luc Besson and Scarlett Johansson make for terrific creative partners, and their combined fan base is already showing that they'll come out in full force for ‘Lucy''s opening weekend."

"Lucy" opens on the same weekend when thousands of genre movie fans converge in San Diego for Comic-Con. In a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 moviegoers, fans were asked which Comic-Con movies they were most looking forward to seeing at Hall H film presentations. The number one choice is the "Avengers" sequel, also starring "Lucy" headliner Scarlett Johansson. The top 5 fan picks are as follows:
"Avengers: Age of Ultron"

"Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice"

"The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies"

"Sin City: A Dame to Kill For"

"Mad Max: Fury Road"

About Fandango's Fanticipation
Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango's movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango's advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment.


NORTH AMERICA: 'Dawn of the Planet of the Apes' Remains #1 on Tuesday with $5.08M on July 23, 2014


By Daniel Garris

Fox's Dawn of the Planet of the Apes led the way on Tuesday with $5.08 million. The critically acclaimed 3D sci-fi action sequel has now led the daily box office for eleven of the past twelve days. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes was up 21 percent over Monday and down a respectable 47 percent from last Tuesday. The twelve-day total for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes stands at $148.49 million. That is ahead of pre-release expectations and places the film an impressive 32 percent ahead of the $112.34 million twelve-day take of 2011's Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

Universal's The Purge: Anarchy held steady in second place with $3.56 million. The sequel to last year's break-out horror film was up 7 percent over Monday. While that represented the day's poorest daily percentage hold among wide releases, it also represented a far stronger first Tuesday hold than that of last year's The Purge (which fell 19 percent on its first Tuesday to gross $2.69 million). With a five-day start of $36.70 million, The Purge: Anarchy is now running just 8 percent behind the $40.06 million five-day take of The Purge.

Planes: Fire and Rescue took in $2.33 million to remain in third. The modestly budgeted computer animated sequel from Disney was up a healthy 26 percent over Monday. Planes: Fire and Rescue has grossed $21.69 million through five days. That is a bit below expectations and is 22 percent softer than the $27.81 million five-day take of last year's Planes. Planes: Fire and Rescue will hope to hold up well going forward due in part to the limited amount of options for family audiences throughout the rest of the summer.

Sony's Sex Tape placed in fourth with$1.97 million. The comedy starring Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel finally showed some signs of stabilizing as it was up 27 percent over Monday. Sex Tape has grossed a significantly poorer than expected $18.13 million through five days of release. That places the film a very disappointing 54 percent behind the $39.53 million five-day start of 2011's Bad Teacher.

Transformers: Age of Extinction rounded out Tuesday's unchanged top five with $1.44 million. The fourth installment of Paramount's sci-fi action franchise was up 23 percent over Monday and down 44 percent from last Tuesday. Transformers: Age of Extinction has grossed $229.62 million through 26 days. That currently ranks the film as the fourth highest grossing release of 2014 thus far domestically and the film will soon pass by X-Men: Days of Future Past to move into third place.

'Lucy' Eyes Top Spot on July 23, 2014


By Alex Edghill

Wednesday Morning Update: Hercules stumbled significantly for the second day in a row on Tuesday as it ended up with 8,648 tweets, down 8% from 9,442 tweets on Monday. Coming on the heels of its 13% dip on Monday this is definitely not the most heartening of developments and just about cements its status as an underperformer on the weekend. Sure $20 million plus is in play but with a budget of over $110 million plus prints and advertising and the tentpole tag being applied to it by Paramount and MGM this is hardly a satisfying number for its backers even if it doubles its numbers internationally. By comparison, The Legend Of Hercules had 971 tweets its Tuesday before release while Pompeii had 2,134 tweets and 300: Rise OF An Empire had 5,022 tweets. The overall numbers are still quite hefty but with consistent falls over the last few days and the fact that Dwayne Johnson commands more attention on Twitter than any of my three comparison means that I discount it heavily.

Lucy had the slightest of bumps on Tuesday as it rose a handful of tweets to 5,038, up from 5,020 on Monday. I'm not as concerned with this tiny rise since it had a healthy jump on Monday and has been ramping up nicely in the past weeks. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had 1,293 tweets its Tuesday before release, while the similarly restrictively titled Hanna had just 927. Despite having easier to search strings, other valid comparisons (*nod to PJEDWARDS*) include Transcendence which had 1,936 tweets its Tuesday before release and Edge Of Tomorrow which had 14,541. Despite the lower numbers this is looking good to win the weekend based on its title-handicap, its trajectory and recent comparisons. I'd say $25 million plus should be assured but I'd like to see its growth tomorrow before locking in as another tiny increase or even fall would spell trouble.

Top 15 Movies for Tuesday July 22nd

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon-Tue %
1 (-) Guardians of the Galaxy 26,516 30,606 57,122 15.42%
2 (+3) Transformers: Age of Extinction 10,516 19,335 29,851 83.86%
3 (+5) 22 Jump Street 8,442 18,466 26,908 118.74%
4 (+6) If I Stay 7,341 17,253 24,594 135.02%
5 (-3) Dawn of The Planet of The Apes 21,860 14,797 36,657 -32.31%
6 (-3) The Purge: Anarchy 17,343 13,000 30,343 -25.04%
7 (+4) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 5,772 11,499 17,271 99.22%
8 (-2) Fifty Shades of Grey 10,388 10,994 21,382 5.83%
9 (-2) Hercules (2014) 9,442 8,648 18,090 -8.41%
10 (+4) Maleficent 4,643 5,420 10,063 16.73%
11 (+2) Step Up All In 5,007 5,260 10,267 5.05%
12 (+5) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) 3,055 5,196 8,251 70.08%
13 (-1) Lucy 5,020 5,038 10,058 0.36%
14 (+1) Avengers: Age of Ultron 3,620 4,526 8,146 25.03%
15 (+1) Before I Go to Sleep 3,408 3,134 6,542 -8.04%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

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