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Facebook Watch - 'Dumb And Dumber To' Surges on October 20, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Dumb And Dumber To had the biggest increase of likes over the last week for upcoming films tracked, more than 50% higher than the nearest film. It started the year with just over 2.5 million likes as it is reusing the page of the original film, but with it adding over 1 million new likes since makes it one of the most liked comedies on the year, second to only 22 Jump Street which is good company to be keeping. The sequel was always going to do well considering how beloved the first film was, but with these types of numbers flying around it could see a huge $40 million plus opening numbers which begs the question, why didn't they make it happen sooner? 

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water had the second best percentage increase on the week as it rose to 222,674 likes. With it just over three months away it has a lot of time to pad those numbers and should have no problem surpassing the magic 1 million like mark. SpongeBob is such a pop culture darling amongst younger audiences it should do very well on social media in general as its release nears. 

Exodus: Gods And Kings continues to see its Facebook star rise as it is jumped 74% to 65,000 likes, the biggest percentage increase on the week amongst the top 15 movers. The comparison I'm keenly watching is between this and Noah. The latter had a big spike this same week before release and jumped to ~140,000 likes. The day before its release, Noah had made it to 556,833 likes which could very well be a good yardstick for Exodus' opening potential.  

Lastly, Big Hero 6 had a healthy 13% bump to 215,476 likes on the week. With The Book Of Life translating 80k likes to $17 million box office this past weekend these numbers are pretty huge. The LEGO Movie had 416,641 likes on the day before its release while Mr. Peabody And Sherman had just over 1 million likes.

Facebook Top 15 Movies by Like Increase for the Week Ending Sunday October 19th

Rank Release Movie Likes Previous Change % Change
1 11/14/14 Dumb and Dumber To 3,749,711 3,604,931 144,780 4.02%
2 10/24/14 Ouija 1,126,838 1,037,779 89,059 8.58%
3 06/26/15 Ted 2 20,479,331 20,397,549 81,782 0.40%
4 11/21/14 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 20,535,800 20,455,165 80,635 0.39%
5 02/13/15 Fifty Shades of Grey 5,120,404 5,075,600 44,804 0.88%
6 02/06/15 The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water 222,674 187,844 34,830 18.54%
7 05/01/15 Avengers: Age of Ultron 12,139,579 12,107,118 32,461 0.27%
8 11/07/14 Interstellar 255,584 225,184 30,400 13.50%
9 12/12/14 Exodus: Gods and Kings 65,311 37,567 27,744 73.85%
10 10/24/14 Addicted 354,382 328,174 26,208 7.99%
11 04/03/15 Fast & Furious 7 51,471,277 51,445,325 25,952 0.05%
12 11/07/14 Big Hero 6 215,476 191,133 24,343 12.74%
13 11/26/14 Penguins of Madagascar 3,102,029 3,078,180 23,849 0.77%
14 12/17/14 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 14,128,501 14,105,877 22,624 0.16%
15 06/12/15 Jurassic World 4,730,777 4,708,918 21,859 0.46%

GLOBAL: 'Dracula Untold' Continues to Draw; 'Guardians' Takes Off in China; 'Turtles' Off to a Hot Start in Europe; 'Gone Girl' Crosses $200M on October 19, 2014

Dracula-Untold-1.jpgDraculta Untold bit into a $22.5 million overseas haul from 55 territories this weekend. The film has now grossed $95.7 million outside of North America and$136.4 million worldwide. The film recorded a #1 finish in 14 of the new territories it opened over the weekend including Bolivia, Colombia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Philippines, Slovakia, Thailand, Trinidad and Vietnam.

Guardians of the Galaxy continues to charm Chinese audiences. The film posted a $22.3 million weekend in China, dropping only 28% from the previous weekend. China is now the top overseas market for Guardians with a $69 million cume. The film finished the weekend with a $23.1 million haul from 22 markets. Guardians has grossed a total of $404.8 million overseas and $732.6 million worldwide.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles expanded into several major European markets over the weekend, finishing its latest outing at the overseas box office with a $20 million haul. The film took a $7.9 million opening from 522 sites in the UK and France contributed $4.1 million from 664 locations. The Turtles finished in first place in both Germany ($3.8M) and Spain ($1.5M). The film will continue its expansion with an October 31 release in China. Japan is the last major market on its schedule with a February 7 release. The Turtles have grossed a total of $185.4 million overseas in their latest film. The movie has earned a global total of $374.9 million.

Gone Girl found $20.2 million from 57 markets this weekend, a strong hold that that takes its overseas total up to $94.7 million. The film has grossed $201.7 million worldwide with major markets like South Korea, Italy, and Japan left on its schedule.

Annabelle grossed $19.2 million from 51 markets, reaching a $92 million overseas cume that puts it on par with The Conjuring at the same point in release. The horror flick has grossed $166.1 million globally.

The Maze Runner continues to keep pace overseas with a$17.1 million weekend from from 52 markets. The YA adaptation scored #1 openings in France ($4.9M) and Belgium ($966k) as it finished its latest frame with a $161.5 million overseas cume. The film has grossed a total of $252.3 million worldwide.

The Book of Life took a $25.5 million global day-and-debut as it opened across 19 overseas markets. Mexico enjoyed a $3.8 million premiere while Brazil contributed a $2 million opening weekend. The animated film finished its first weekend overseas with an $8.6 million haul. The film expands to the UK, France, and Belgium next weekend.

The Judge earned $6.5 million from 37 markets over the weekend, bringing the overseas cume up to $8.7 million. The film has grossed a total of $35.4 million globally.

The Boxtrolls added $3.1 million from 34 territories to reach an overseas total of $36.1M. The film could only muster $630k from 294 dates since opening in France on Wednesday. The Boxtrolls has grossed $82.1 million worldwide.

NORTH AMERICA: Studio Estimates: 'Fury' Leads the Way with $23.5M Debut; 'Gone Girl' Passes $100M Mark after $17.8M Take; 'The Book of Life' Solid in Third with $17.0M on October 18, 2014

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Sunday Update: Sony's Fury debuted in first place this weekend with an estimated $23.5 million. The David Ayer directed war film starring Brad Pitt opened on the low end of pre-release expectations. Fury opened a slim 7 percent ahead of the $22.00 million debut of Sony's The Monuments Men back in February and 20.5 percent ahead of the $19.50 million start of Sony's Moneyball back in September of 2011. Like both of those films were able to do, Fury will hope to hold up well going forward.

Fury opened with $8.83 million on Friday (which included a relatively large $1.2 million from Thursday night shows), increased 3 percent on Saturday to take in $9.13 million and is estimated to fall 39 percent on Sunday to gross $5.55 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at a somewhat front-loaded 2.66 to 1. The audience breakdown for Fury skewed towards male moviegoers (60 percent) and slightly towards moviegoers over the age of 35 (51 percent). Fury received an encouraging A- rating on CinemaScore.

After leading the box office each of the past two weekends, Fox's Gone Girl placed in second this weekend with an estimated $17.8 million. The critically acclaimed David Fincher directed film starring Ben Affleck continued to hold up well, as it was down just 33 percent from last weekend. Gone Girl surpassed the $100 million mark this weekend and has now grossed $107.07 million through 17 days of release. Before much longer, Gone Girl will zoom past the $127.51 million final domestic gross of 2008's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to become David Fincher's highest grossing film to date (without adjusting for ticket price inflation).

Fellow Fox release The Book of Life followed closely behind in third with an estimated $17.0 million debut. The modestly budgeted computer animated film opened in line with expectations and likely received an added boost from opening a couple weeks before Halloween and Day of the Dead. The Book of Life opened nearly on par with the recent $17.28 million launch of The Boxtrolls. The Book of Life started out with $4.98 million on Friday, increased 38 percent on Saturday to take in $6.87 million and is estimated to decline 25 percent on Sunday to gross $5.16 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 3.42 to 1. Like Fury, The Book of Life also received an encouraging A- rating on CinemaScore.

Fellow family film Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day claimed fourth place with an estimated $12.04 million. The Disney release starring Steve Carell and Jennifer Garner fell 34 percent from last weekend. That represented a very nice hold, especially given the added competition for family audiences from The Book of Life. Alexander has grossed $36.87 million through ten days of release, which is in line with expectations and is very solid with the film's modest price tag in mind.

Relativity's The Best of Me rounded out the weekend's top with an estimated debut of $10.2 million. The Nicholas Sparks adaptation starring Michelle Monaghan and James Marsden opened on the low end of its modest expectations. The Best of Me opened softer than most Sparks adaptations, with the film's performance more closely representing the $13.42 million start of 2008's Nights in Rodanthe. The Best of Me opened with $4.14 million on Friday, fell 8.5 percent on Saturday to take in $3.79 million and is estimated to fall 40 percent on Sunday to gross $2.27 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at just 2.46 to 1. The Best of Me received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore, which strongly suggests that the film is going over better with moviegoers than with critics.

In their second weekend of release, Universal's Dracula Untold and Warner's The Judge claimed sixth and seventh places with respective estimates of $9.9 million and $7.94 million. Dracula Untold was down a sharp 58 percent from last weekend's stronger than expected start, while The Judge was down a very solid 39 percent from last weekend's modest debut. Respective ten-day total grosses stand at $40.75 million for Dracula Untold and at $26.84 million for The Judge.

Warner's Annabelle placed in eighth with an estimated $7.93 million. The low-budget spin-off to The Conjuring was down a respectable 50 percent and has grossed a stronger than expected $74.13 million in 17 days. Annabelle will face new direct competition next weekend when Universal unleashes Ouija in theaters on Friday.

On the platform front, the critically acclaimed Birdman was off to a terrific start with an estimated $415,000 from 4 locations in New York and Los Angeles. The Alejandro González Iñárritu directed film starring Michael Keaton from Fox Searchlight and New Regency generated a massive per-location average of $103,750 for the frame. Birdman will receive a major expansion next weekend.

Saturday Update: Sony reports that David Ayers' Fury bowed to an estimated $8.8 million on Friday. The dramatic war thriller led by Brad Pitt easily marked director Ayers' best opening of his career so far, topping End of Watch's $4.6 million opening day two years ago. The opening day is also slightly ahead of Captain Phillips' $8.5 million last October, which went on to earn $25.7 million over its opening frame. Early word of mouth for the picture is very healthy with an 88 percent Flixster score as of Saturday morning, a good sign for the film's lifespan combined with an 80 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and "A-" CinemaScore. BoxOffice projects a $25 million weekend.

Gone Girl continued to hold up well at the start of its third frame with a 32 percent drop from last Friday to $5.55 million yesterday. The David Fincher-Ben Affleck thriller has tallied $94.8 million through 15 days of release. BoxOffice projects an $18 million third weekend.

Fox's The Book of Life took in $4.95 million in its first day, capitalizing on its Halloween-friendly themes and strong appeal to Hispanic audiences. The opening day was in line with that of The Boxtrolls ($4.93 million) a few weeks ago. The pic's Flixster score compares well also (80 percent versus Boxtrolls' 76 percent). BoxOffice projects a $17.3 million opening frame.

Relativity's The Best of Me opened in line with expectations to the tune of $4.14 million yesterday. Unfortunately, that's a modest performance for a Nicholas Sparks adaptation, although unlike Safe Haven and Dear John in recent years, this film didn't have the advantage of opening near date-night friendly Valentine's Day (not to mention some certain impact from Gone Girl's strong female audience). The film's Flixster score stands at 67 percent this morning. BoxOffice projects an $11.5 million weekend.

Meanwhile, in a platform release of 4 theaters this weekend, Birdman flew high with $135,602 to start its run. The strongly-reviewed picture, and presumed eventual awards contender, directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu and starring Michael Keaton averaged a huge $33,901 per location on Friday. That tops Inside Llewyn Davis' $30,835 opening day average ($123,340 overall) from 4 locations last year, while also topping 12 Years a Slave's $14,415 opening day average ($273,882 total) from 10 locations. Other comparable 4-location openers include The Artist ($75,456 total, $18,864 average), The Fighter ($98,521 total, $24,630 average), and 127 Hours ($77,262 total, $19,316 average). This early showing for Birdman sets the stage for a fruitful expansion across the nation in the weeks and months to come. BoxOffice projects the film could net around $450,000 this weekend.

Not to be forgotten in platform release this weekend is St. Vincent, expanding to 68 locations with a $187,000 Friday and $2,750 per-theater average. With almost $339,000 in the bank so far, BoxOffice projects a $665,000 weekend.

Friday Update: Sources report that Fury is easily leading Friday box office with early projections putting it around $8.5 million for opening day, including last night's $1.2 million start. If that holds, the Brad Pitt-led war thriller from David Ayer will likely post a strong debut weekend between $24 million and $26 million.

The Book of Life is off to a solid start as well with early reports of a first day north of $4 million. It looks to open in the same weekend range as The Boxtrolls a few weeks ago with $15-17 million.

Romantic drama The Best of Me is eyeing an opening day of $3.5 million to $4 million based on early trends. If that holds, look for a weekend around $10 million to $11 million.

Check BoxOffice on Saturday morning for official Friday estimates and our early weekend projections for all major titles.

Previously: Sony reports that Fury is off to an excellent start with $1.2 million from Thursday evening shows. The debut tops recent Thursday hauls from Captain Phillips ($600K) and The Monuments Men ($550K). 

Meanwhile, Fox's The Book of Life opened to a modest $300K. That's not bad for a film that isn't part of an established property.

Check back later today to see how the weekend is shaping up for Fury and other new releases.

NORTH AMERICA: 'Gone Girl' on the Verge of $90M After Leading Thursday with $2.27M; 'Dracula Untold' Surpasses $30M Mark on October 17, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Fox's Gone Girl took in $2.27 million on Thursday to continue to lead the daily box office. The critically acclaimed David Fincher directed film starring Ben Affleck has now led the daily box office for six straight days and for twelve of the past fourteen days. Gone Girl was down a slim 3 percent from Wednesday and down a healthy 31 percent from last Thursday. The film claimed first place for the week with a weekly take of $37.79 million. That was down just 27 percent from the film's opening week performance and brings the film's two-week total to a very impressive $30.85 million.

Universal's Dracula Untold held steady in second place with $1.299 million. The action horror film starring Luke Evans decreased 8 percent from Wednesday's performance. Dracula Untold surpassed the $30 million mark on Thursday and exceeded expectations this week with a seven-day start of $30.85 million. That placed the film in second for the frame and was 5 percent below the $32.63 million seven-day debut of 2012's Underworld Awakening.

Warner's The Judge rounded out its first week of release with a third place take of $1.134 million. The Robert Downey Jr. led drama was down 7 percent from Wednesday. The Judge took fifth place for the week with a seven-day launch of $18.90 million. While that was on the low end of expectations, the film has displayed encouraging early holding power thus far and is running 51 percent ahead of the $12.51 million seven-day take of 2009's The Soloist.

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day was up one spot and a strong 21 percent over Wednesday to claim fourth on Thursday with $0.952 million. The family film from Disney starring Steve Carell and Jennifer Garner took third place this week with a seven-day start of $24.83 million. Alexander continues to perform in line with expectations and is running 4 percent behind the $25.78 million seven-day take of 2010's Diary of a Wimpy Kid.

Warner's Annabelle was down one spot from Wednesday to round out Thursday's top five with $0.906 million. The low-budget spin-off to The Conjuring increased 1 percent over Wednesday and fell 52 percent from last Thursday. Annabelle placed in fourth for the week with $20.41 million. That was down 55 percent from the film's opening week performance and brings the film's two-week total to a strong $66.20 million.

Twitter Futures - 'Mockingjay' Dominates on October 17, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Friday Morning Update: For the second time in the last three weeks The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 topped the charts for upcoming films. It dropped a new preview a couple days ago which spawned a hefty 55,665 tweets. Hardly a surprise since its first full trailer grabber over 160k tweets back in September. This could very well see record breaking tweet totals leading up to release so expect this to be leading quite often over the next month before release.

Ouiji is a social media giant in its own right and last week was no different as it held down the second spot. Its Facebook tally has also been huge and at this point its money in the bank for its backers given the signs. It is the most tweeted about Horror on the year this distance from release (yes even ahead of Annabelle which had ~65k tweets the same week before release).

Beyond The Lights also turned heads on the week with a third place finish. The romance genre traditional is Twitter money and big numbers don't always translate to big bucks (see Endless Love) but with a limited marketing push and tiny budget this has done very well at generating interest so far. It looks to be a sleeper in the wings for November at this point.

Penguins Of Madagascar had been very silent for the most part over the past few months, with its first two trailers having less than 3,000 tweets each which was a bit on the light side, even for a family friendly film. Perhaps sensing the light buzz, Fox released the first four and a half minutes of the film online a couple of days ago which saw just shy of 10,000 tweets. Great move on their part which seemed to have worked at sparking interest.

Twitter Top 20 Movies for the week of October 10th to October 17th

Date Movie Tweets Rank Peak Change
11/21/14 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 121,432 1 (+3) 1 189.39%
10/24/14 Ouija 79,877 2 (-1) 1 -17.37%
11/14/14 Beyond The Lights 32,656 3 (+16) 3 415.57%
10/17/14 The Best Of Me 32,038 4 (+3) 4 44.97%
10/17/14 The Book of Life (2014) 30,474 5 (+10) 5 246.93%
10/17/14 Fury (2014) 23,574 6 (+11) 6 257.78%
10/31/14 Before I Go To Sleep 23,353 7 (+4) 7 27.01%
5/01/15 Avengers: Age of Ultron 20,058 8 (+2) 8 1.22%
12/17/14 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 19,986 9 (+4) 9 59.59%
11/26/14 Penguins Of Madagascar 15,634 10 (+19) 10 595.46%
12/25/14 Into The Woods 14,085 11 (+3) 11 29.03%
12/19/14 Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb 12,434 12 (-4) 8 -42.90%
11/07/14 Interstellar 10,879 13 (-4) 6 -46.29%
10/24/14 John Wick 10,357 14 (+4) 14 59.17%
3/13/15 Heart Of The Sea 8,996 15 (+34) 15 2908.70%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.


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