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'Godzilla' Clearing Path Towards Weekend Riches on May 15, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Thursday Morning Update: Godzilla saw a welcomed bump on Wednesday to 48,112 tweets, up 38% from Tuesday's 34,782 tweets. I had been a bit concerned about the decline in buzz over the last few days but the sizeable increase today has done a lot to calm my fears of it perhaps even failing to cross the $65 million mark. By comparison, Pacific Rim had 11,916 tweets its Wednesday before release while Prometheus had 12,928 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier recently had 68,321. While it isn't at the same level of Cap it looks to be much stronger in potential than my other two comparisons. As such we are predicting $76 million on the weekend which is a very strong beginning for the film, especially considering that it will have a stellar run overseas as well. $450 million worldwide should be a distinct possibility. 

Million Dollar Arm also bounced back on Wednesday, albeit on a smaller scale, as it rose 10% to 2,584 tweets, up from Tuesday's 2,354 tweets. By comparison, Trouble With The Curve had 1,837 tweets its Wednesday before release, Moneyball rang in with 3,076 while Draft Day had 2,106. Its overall number is encouraging, especially in light of the comparisons listed. The tweet to box office ratio here should be much lower than Godzilla thanks to its family core demographic and as such it doesn't need as much buzz to do well. We are currently predicting $15 million for the film this weekend.

Top 15 Movies for Tuesday May 13th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue-Wed %
1 (-) The Fault in Our Stars 51,495 84,249 180,686 63.61%
2 (-) Godzilla (2014) 34,782 48,112 123,117 38.32%
3 (-) X-Men: Days of Future Past 24,635 19,494 67,523 -20.87%
4 (-) 22 Jump Street 16,229 12,273 42,175 -24.38%
5 (-) Maleficent 11,983 12,121 39,220 1.15%
6 (-) Divergent 11,964 11,490 37,886 -3.96%
7 (-) Transformers: Age of Extinction 9,014 8,355 28,521 -7.31%
8 (-) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 8,846 8,159 26,825 -7.77%
9 (-) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 7,624 7,359 24,311 -3.48%
10 (-) Neighbors (2014) 6,889 5,084 21,204 -26.20%
11 (+2) Million Dollar Arm 2,354 2,584 7,410 9.77%
12 (+3) Avengers: Age of Ultron 1,966 2,017 6,560 2.59%
13 (-1) If I Stay 2,397 1,951 6,634 -18.61%
14 (-3) Edge of Tomorrow 3,580 1,768 11,396 -50.61%
15 (-1) Blended 2,096 1,490 9,327 -28.91%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

'Godzilla' Gets Big Opening Day Draw from France and Australia on May 15, 2014

godzilla-poster-back.jpgGodzilla is on track to replace domestic hit Qu'est-ce que j'ai fait au bon Dieu as the #1 film at the French box office this weekend, according to a report form The Hollywood Reporter.

The monster movie grossed $1.6 million from 596 screens in France over its first day. Early numbers coming in from Australia aren't far behind, with the giant lizard taking $1.2 million from Oz.

Indonesia follows with a $325k opening day from 308 screens. Sweden posted a $316k opening day from 54 screens, while Scandinavian neighbors Norway posted a $210k bow from 127 screens. Belgium came in with a $167k bow from 87 screens and Finland concluded its opening day with $71k from 82 screens.

 

NORTH AMERICA: 'Neighbors' Leads Tuesday with $4.84M; 'Amazing Spider-Man 2' Passes $150M on May 14, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Universal's Neighbors grossed $4.84 million on Tuesday to lead the daily box office for a fifth straight day. The modestly budgeted comedy starring Seth Rogen, Zac Efron and Rose Byrne increased 9 percent over Monday. That did represent the day's poorest daily percentage hold among wide releases, one day after the film experienced the day's strongest daily percentage hold among wide releases. Neighbors continues to significantly outpace pre-release expectations with a very strong five-day start of $58.31 million. That places the film an impressive 49 percent ahead of the $39.25 million five-day take of 2007's Knocked Up.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 held steady in second place with $2.90 million. In the process, Sony's expensive 3D superhero sequel surpassed the $150 million domestic mark yesterday. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was up a very solid 29 percent over Monday, but was still down a sizable 53 percent from last Tuesday. With a twelve-day take of $151.36 million, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is currently running 1 percent ahead of the $150.04 million twelve-day take of last year's Thor: The Dark World and 9 percent behind the recent $167.07 million twelve-day gross of Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Fox's The Other Woman took in $0.972 million to remain in third. The comedy starring Cameron Diaz, Leslie Mann and Kate Upton was up a strong 35 percent over Monday and down 37 percent from last Tuesday. The Other Woman is holding up well this week, especially given the new competition it is facing from Neighbors. The 19-day total for The Other Woman stands at $63.78 million, which places the film 11 percent ahead of the $57.58 million 19-day gross of 2008's What Happens in Vegas.

Sony's Heaven is for Real grossed $0.635 million to continue to claim fourth. The break-out faith-based drama increased 31 percent over Monday's performance and was down a healthy 25 percent from last Tuesday. The four-week total for Heaven is for Real stands at a very impressive $76.82 million.

Captain America: The Winter Solider rounded out the day's unchanged top five with $0.504 million. The blockbuster 3D superhero sequel from Disney was up 23 percent over Monday and down just 24 percent from last Tuesday. With a 40-day take of $246.04 million, Captain America: The Winter Solider is now just $3.96 million away from reaching the $250 million domestic mark.

Despite Mild Decline 'Godzilla' Firmly In Charge on May 14, 2014

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By Alex Edghill

Wednesday Morning Update: Godzilla dropped over 13% on Tuesday to 34,782 tweets on Tuesday, marking its second straight day of dips after its London premiere over the weekend and loads of buzz from early reviews, new tv spots and interviews. It is at massive levels yes, but unless it can post a positive gain today I am worried that it is going to run the risk of failing to draw in non-creature feature fans and be stuck in the vicinity of the 1998 Godzilla film plus inflation (~$70 million).

By comparison, Pacific Rim had 6,715 tweets its Tuesday before release while Prometheus had 10,091. Yes it is way ahead of those films but they were both moving in the right direction at the same point as well. Its not like ~$70 million would be bad at all but in the weeks leading up to it with the numbers it was posting I thought it had hopes of toppling $80 or even $90 million.

Million Dollar Arm also suffered a decline on Tuesday, albeit decidedly smaller, as it fell ~5% to 2,354 tweets. By comparison, Trouble With The Curve had 1,759 tweets its Tuesday before release, Moneyball had 3,428 while Draft Day had 1,677. Double digits look very likely here, perhaps even easing into the low teens but anything more than that doesn't seem to be in the cards given the markers used.

Top 15 Movies for Tuesday May 13th

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon-Tue %
1 (-) The Fault in Our Stars 44,942 51,495 96,437 14.58%
2 (-) Godzilla (2014) 40,223 34,782 75,005 -13.53%
3 (-) X-Men: Days of Future Past 23,394 24,635 48,029 5.30%
4 (+2) 22 Jump Street 13,673 16,229 29,902 18.69%
5 (-1) Maleficent 15,116 11,983 27,099 -20.73%
6 (-1) Divergent 14,432 11,964 26,396 -17.10%
7 (-) Transformers: Age of Extinction 11,152 9,014 20,166 -19.17%
8 (-) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 9,820 8,846 18,666 -9.92%
9 (-) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 9,328 7,624 16,952 -18.27%
10 (-) Neighbors (2014) 9,231 6,889 16,120 -25.37%
11 (-) Edge of Tomorrow 6,048 3,580 9,628 -40.81%
12 (+3) If I Stay 2,286 2,397 4,683 4.86%
13 (+1) Million Dollar Arm 2,472 2,354 4,826 -4.77%
14 (-2) Blended 5,741 2,096 7,837 -63.49%
15 (-2) Avengers: Age of Ultron 2,577 1,966 4,543 -23.71%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

NORTH AMERICA: 'Neighbors' Passes the $50M Mark After Taking in $4.44M on Monday on May 13, 2014

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By Daniel Garris

Universal's Neighbors took in $4.44 million on Monday to lead the daily box office for a fourth consecutive day. The modestly budgeted comedy starring Seth Rogen, Zac Efron and Rose Byrne was down 62 percent from Sunday. That represented the day's strongest daily percentage hold among wide releases, which is a good early sign for the film going forward.  It should also be noted that R-rated comedies tend to have very good first-Monday holds in general, especially during the summer months. Neighbors surpassed the $50 million mark yesterday and continues to outpace pre-release expectations with a very strong four-day start of $53.48 million. That places the film an impressive 52 percent ahead of the $35.13 million four-day take of 2007's Knocked Up.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 claimed second place with $2.25 million. Sony's expensive 3D superhero sequel fell 78 percent from Sunday and 56 percent from last Monday. It should be reminded that last Monday's grosses were deflated a bit from Cinco de Mayo. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 continues to perform on the low end of expectations with an eleven-day take of $148.46 million and is set to surpass the $150 million mark today. The film is currently running 1 percent ahead of the $147.31 million eleven-day take of last year's Thor: The Dark World and 9 percent behind the recent $162.35 million eleven-day gross of Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Fox's The Other Woman placed in third with $0.719 million. The comedy starring Cameron Diaz, Leslie Mann and Kate Upton was down 77 percent from Sunday and down 31 percent from last Monday. The Other Woman is holding up well this week, especially given the new competition it is facing from Neighbors. The 18-day total for The Other Woman stands at $62.80 million, which places the film 11 percent ahead of the $56.61 million 18-day gross of 2008's What Happens in Vegas.

Sony's Heaven is for Real finished in fourth place with $0.483 million. The break-out faith-based drama was down a sharp 85 percent from Sunday's Mother's Day inflated performance and down just 20 percent from last Monday. The 27-day total for Heaven is for Real stands at $76.19 million.

Captain America: The Winter Solider rounded out Monday's top five with $0.411 million. The blockbuster 3D superhero sequel from Disney fell 76 percent from Sunday and only 20 percent from last Monday. With a 39-day take of $245.54 million, Captain America: The Winter Solider is now just $4.46 million away from reaching the $250 million domestic mark.


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