Long Range Forecast: ’12 Strong’ & ‘Den of Thieves’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast welcomes two films currently slated to open on January 19, 2018. Our preliminary analysis and detailed forecasts:

PROS:

  • Based on a true story, 12 Strong will hope to find appeal among military families, older male audiences, and fans of Chris Hemsworth and Michael Shannon. The film’s early social media footprint is respectable, but future marketing will be key to watch. Den of Thieves will similarly be aiming for the older male demo with Gerard Butler leading the heist film. As the first action flicks of the new year targeting that particular crowd, one or the other could find a solid audience if reviews come in on the positive side.

CONS:

  • Hemsworth hasn’t been a major box office draw outside the Marvel universe yet (see Blackhat), while Butler’s own drawing power has somewhat diminished following the lukewarm performance of Geostorm. Opening after what is expected to be a busy holiday weekend could leave both of these films with little audience to scavenge, especially since stronger competition will follow in the weeks soon after.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
12/8/2017 The Disaster Artist n/a n/a A24
12/8/2017 Just Getting Started $8,000,000 $36,000,000 Broad Green Pictures
12/15/2017 Ferdinand $20,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
12/15/2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $215,000,000 $742,000,000 Disney
12/20/2017 The Greatest Showman on Earth $11,000,000 $75,000,000 Fox
12/20/2017 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $22,000,000 $175,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017 All the Money in the World n/a n/a TriStar
12/22/2017 Downsizing $10,000,000 $59,000,000 Paramount
12/22/2017 Pitch Perfect 3 $40,000,000 $136,000,000 Universal
12/22/2017 Father Figures $7,000,000 $41,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/29/2017 (no films scheduled currently)
1/5/2018 Insidious: The Last Key $19,500,000 $34,500,000 Universal
1/5/2018 Molly’s Game $6,000,000 $21,000,000 STXfilms
1/12/2018 The Commuter $12,000,000 $31,000,000 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Condorito: La Pelicula $5,000,000 $12,500,000 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Paddington 2 $19,000,000 $70,000,000 Warner Bros.
1/12/2018 The Post (expansion) $20,000,000 $90,000,000 Fox
1/12/2018 Proud Mary $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
1/19/2018 Den of Thieves $6,500,000 NEW $13,000,000 NEW STXfilms
1/19/2018 12 Strong $10,000,000 NEW $36,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
Boxoffice Staff

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Jihadi john November 22, 2017

    Its cool that u have disaster artist there for no reason

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    americanmoviefan November 22, 2017

    I think you’re underestimating 12 Strong’s potential and overestimating Den of Thieves’ potential. I thought Den of Thieves was gonna be a zero marketing DTOD flick that signaled the death knell of Butler’s theatrical career outside of the “Fallen” series and maybe some voice work. I know Hemsworth has no real star power, but he’s also chosen some awful projects that had no real upside (like Blackhat) Rush was fantastic and became bit of a cult classic.

    Modern war films seem to make between $60M and $140M in today’s market, on the lower end of that (comparing inflation adjusted numbers of Lone Survivor, The Kingdom, etc.)

    Also I’d argue Hemsworth’s appeal will be stronger now outside of Thor for a simple reason: His Thor haircut is close to his regular haircut he uses in other roles. People won’t disassociate the actor as much from the series.

    I’m guessing $16.5M opening for “Twelve Strong” and a final domestic (I doubt it’ll get any international play given how jingoistic it is) and a final domestic box office of $62M.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Rob November 22, 2017

    Lukewarm performance of “Geostorm”!? It flat out bombed! Just 32M at the box-office in the U.S. alone. Sure, I know it’s made 205M worldwide. But with a 120M budget, those are not good numbers. Didn’t help that the film was terrible. Probably the worst of 2017.

    Reply

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