Long Range Forecast: ‘American Made’ & ‘Flatliners’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at the wide releases currently scheduled for the final weekend of September:

American Made
Universal

PROS:

  • Tom Cruise and director Doug Liman previously teamed up to great acclaim with Edge of Tomorrow. If marketing plays up that connection, it could help this film stand out.
  • Based on the true story of a CIA recruit involved in the Iran-Contra affair, adult audiences familiar with the developments of that era could be attracted to this kind of smart, dramatic thriller in the fall season.

CONS:

  • Cruise’s box office drawing power in original dramatic films hasn’t been as strong as his franchises and genre fare. Even Edge of Tomorrow somewhat notoriously opened modestly before legging out a healthy box office run.
  • The film will debut in a fairly crowded market, especially among the target male audience. The previous week’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle and the following week’s Blade Runner 2049 will likely cut into this film’s potential. Still, strong reviews and marketing could eventually shift expectations upward closer to a Black Mass-type of run given the talent involved.

Flatliners
Sony / Screen Gems

PROS:

  • The original film was a solid hit in 1990, earning over $61 million before adjusting for inflation. A recent revival of ’90s nostalgia could help this out on opening weekend.
  • Teens and young adults not interested in the weekend’s other new offering will be the target demographic here, with Ellen Page serving as the main star attraction.

CONS:

  • Remakes and reboots have a hard time at the box office more often than not these days. 2015’s Poltergeist was a modest performer, while 2011’s The Thing was an outright misfire in its fall release.
  • Nostalgia and counter-programming aside, Kingsman could still be attracting a sizable older teen/young adult audience in its second weekend when this releases.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Social media buzz for The Glass Castle has begun to pick up recently, but the studio’s lower-than-expected location count offsets a potential increase in forecasts at this time.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 3,200 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 1,400 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $39,000,000 -3% 3,250 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Adventurers n/a n/a n/a Well Go USA
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 2,900 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 2,400 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 $15,800,000 The Weinstein Company
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 All I See Is You $6,500,000 $15,600,000 Open Road
9/15/2017 American Assassin $10,000,000 $25,000,000 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! n/a n/a Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $39,000,000 $100,000,000 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $40,000,000 $138,000,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 NEW $50,500,000 NEW Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $11,000,000 NEW $26,000,000 NEW Sony / Screen Gems

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

15 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Taylor August 04, 2017

    An opening of $25 million or more for Annabelle seems possible since some reviews are already in and are positive, but it will probably leg out because of that, and end with around $70 million. So your total estimate is a little low.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Matt D. August 04, 2017

    Agree with American Made’s box office projection. Should make at least $50-55 M and open around $18-20M OW. Still way too high on Lego Ninjago’s number and still too low on It and Kingsman. Also I could see Flatliners making $12M OW and finish around $30M.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    DangerS August 04, 2017

    It, Kingsman and Lego Ninjango will most likely be bigger.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 04, 2017

      As well as All Saints and Lucky Logan.
      Flatliners may just flatline at the BO though. Appearing like an ill-fated cross between The Lazarus Effect and Self/Less, it has low chances of good reviews and may may end up with an opening of $9 million.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Taylor August 04, 2017

    An opening of $25 million or more for Annabelle 2 is about on point since good reviews are already in, but because of that it will probably leg out better than that with about $70 million.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Nd August 04, 2017

    I think flatliners will do way more, probably 20 million depend on the review !!! The movie look very good and has a strong cast ( Nina dobrev , diego luna , ellen page…)

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    John August 04, 2017

    I think that’s too low for American Made. $20 million OW minimum thanks to Cruise

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 04, 2017

      The success of American Made is going to come down to reviews; if it gets reviews akin to Jack Reacher 2, then it most likely will earn $20 million or less. I can’t put it any higher than $25 million because unlike Jack Reacher 2, this movie has serious competition with Kingsman 2. I’m not expecting good reviews, and I’m going to agree with the forecast.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        gavin August 23, 2017

        right now reviews are at 91%. 19 likes, 2 dislikes. That seems pretty good, and all loving Tom’s performance.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Anu August 24, 2017

          I saw the film in an Advanced Press screening and its really amazing with amazing performances across the board. $15 Million prediction is a joke for such a great movie, it deserves at least a $30 Million Opening weekend.

          Reply
  7. Avatar
    Daniel A. August 05, 2017

    Given the fact that the advertising for mother! has been extremely unique, different and VERY secretive (We don’t even know which actors are playing who.) I think that it’ll open with a range from $25 – $40 Million. Yes thats a huge range but it all depends on if the advertising style pays off. If i had to predict an exact number I’d probably go with around $34 Million OW and $135 Million final domestic gross as it should hold well (30% – 40% drops) until Thor: Ragnarok is released (which then it should have 40% – 55% drops). It stars Jennifer Lawrence and is directed by infamous Thriller director Darren Aronofksy which is why I’m predicting this to be a major success. World Wide numbers will probably be around $400 Million as it will get extreamly well hold over seas aswell. Kingsmen I’m predicting to open with around $42 Million and Finish at $100 Million. and Lego Ninjago I’m predicting will have a $36 Million Opening and $120 Domestic overall. American Assassin looks like as I’ve seen people saying Jason Bourne 2.0. Assassin will most likely get moderate to bad reviews (most likely bad) and is going up against mother! so my guess is $8.5 Mil OW and $23 Million Domestic haul.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 07, 2017

      10 Cloverfield Lane did something similar to what mother! is doing with the advertising, but there’s a key difference: unlike 10 Cloverfield Lane before it, mother! is competing…with It. If mother! earns review scores on par with A Cure for Wellness, it won’t do well at all and may even flop. Need I remind people that even when a studio slipped Guillermo Del Toro’s name into a more arthouse-esque movie, it didn’t gain success? So, for starters, I call the forecast at $8 million and I’ll standby for good reviews and accurate advertising to be confirmed.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin August 07, 2017

        If anybody is going to ask, yes I know Jennifer Lawrence is in this movie, but her appearance never stopped The Hunger Games from having diminishing returns.
        Did I also forget to mention that the premise looks similar to that of It Comes at Night? The main family invites another family to live with them only for bad things to happen.

        Reply
  8. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice August 08, 2017

    Why no numbers for Mother and Friend Request?

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Anusha August 24, 2017

    Today i saw American Made in a press screening, its an amazing film and is currently at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Your prediction of $15 Million will be blown out of the water because its a really good film & it stars the biggest movie star of our time Tom Cruise. It deserves a minimum $30 Million opening weekend, but realty wise i think it will open somewhere between $25-30 Million after the good reviews and the word of mouth starts spreading.

    Reply

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