Long Range Forecast: ‘Annabelle: Creation,’ ‘The Glass Castle,’ & ‘The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature’

This week’s Long Range Forecast sees the addition of three films scheduled for wide release on Friday, August 11.

Annabelle: Creation
Warner Bros. / New Line

PROS:

  • The first Conjuring spin-off was a solid hit in October 2014, earning over $84 million domestically.
  • Since then, The Conjuring 2 further buoyed the franchise’s popularity with a $102.5 million domestic run last summer.
  • August’s (seeming) lack of standout blockbuster offerings could work to this film’s advantage, especially considering the lack of horror hits so far in 2017.

CONS:

  • Initial buzz is relatively quiet right now, although that’s not unheard of in the horror genre this far from release.
  • Recent and past horror franchises have shown how vulnerable they are to diminishing returns as sequels are churned out at a quick rate.

The Glass Castle
Lionsgate

PROS:

  • Based on Jeannette Walls’ best-selling memoir, there’s an existing audience of fans to cull from.
  • Brie Larson’s rising star in the wake of her Oscar win last year — plus Woody Harrelson’s resurgence in high profile films — further aid appeal to adult audiences.

CONS:

  • It’s often very difficult for adult dramas to break out during this time of year as summer vacations come to an end.
  • Lionsgate could easily opt to release this in a more limited fashion, which make wide release forecasts volatile for the time being.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature
Open Road Films

PROS:

  • 2014’s first film was a surprise success, earning $64 million domestically with its winter release date.
  • As the last animated film scheduled to open before September 22’s LEGO Ninjago Movie, families with young children could drive staying power.

CONS:

  • This is the fifth major animated title to open within a two-month span. The family market will be well-satiated by this point, especially just two weeks out from The Emoji Movie and heading back into school season.
  • Although the first film was a financial winner for Open Road, its run didn’t suggest breakout demand for a sequel.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Opening weekend expectations for Transformers: The Last Knight continue to ease, largely due to the shift to a Wednesday release. (Note: Previous charts in this column incorrectly listed $70 million as the three-day forecast. That has been corrected.)
  • Baby Driver and Despicable Me 3 continue to look like standout options going into 4th of July weekend. The former of the two is increasingly becoming a candidate for breakout status.
  • The House isn’t tracking as strongly as once projected, with social media buzz particularly soft so far.
  • Spider-Man: Homecoming tracking is generating a wide range of projections (as usual). While social media buzz remains very strong thus far, we’re not ruling out the possibility that Wonder Woman‘s incredible reception could have an indirect effect on enthusiasm for the next big superhero release. Still, pending strong reactions from early screenings, we expect big returns.
  • Wish Upon continues to give us pause as its social media trends trail those of previous summer horror sleepers.

Check out our eight-week wide release forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
6/21/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $50,000,000 (FSS) $180,000,000 -4% 3,900 Paramount
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 $82,500,000 38% 3,000 Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $86,000,000 15% $280,000,000 4% 4,200 Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $23,000,000 -12% $80,000,000 -16% 3,200 Warner Bros. / New Line
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $125,000,000 -7% $301,000,000 -7% Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $54,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $10,000,000 -9% $23,000,000 -10% Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $60,000,000 $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 NEW $12,000,000 NEW Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $23,000,000 NEW $52,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 NEW $10,500,000 NEW Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Open Road

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Austin June 16, 2017

    Transformers 5 is definitely leading a quiet weekend next week, isn’t it? All Eyez on Me, though possibly looking at an overperformance this weekend with $30+ million, is taking a steep tumble unlike Straight Outta Compton two years ago (I’m looking at a drop parallel to Alien: Covenant). Rough Night, considering its new low projection off of a 50% audience and critic score on Rotten Tomatoes, could drop around 53% like Baywatch did. And Cars 3 may find a 44% drop. Well, at least the releases the weeks after are more promising, right?
    Also, I’m a little curious about Spider-Man. While the forecast here has been reasonably lowered, the initial tracking is at $100 million right now. (Then again, Wonder Woman’s initial tacking was at $65 million until great reviews bolstered that to $100+ million.) Spider-Man won’t be that lucky; it may get good reviews, but unlike Wonder Woman, people may be more skeptical about viewing another Spider-Man movie and the reviews won’t be as strong. I wouldn’t be too surprised if it debuted at $110 or lower (even to the point where like Fast 8, it gets lower than $100 million.
    Otherwise, Atomic Blonde, The Emoji Movie, Dunkirk, and War of the Planet of the Apes need to be fixed; two are too high, one is slightly too high and one is too low. I’ll also express some skepticism about Annabelle: Creation as it has the slightest chance of being like Ouija: Origin of Evil, where it gets significant praise compared to the first one.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen June 16, 2017

      I’m guessing that you’re putting Atomic Blonde in the too high category, which I would initially agree with (I’m thinking maybe 50mil domestic). But I wonder if they’re thinking that it could play as the female John Wick, benefitting also from expanded summer weekday dollars. If so, 80 to 100 mil could be in play. At the other end, I would like to think that War/Apes will be the biggest of the three recent Apes films, making the trilogy equal to what the initial Bourne trilogy accomplished, but I can understand their putting it at a much lower end: the Apes series is a surprisingly bleak collection of stories, and this one looks to be as dour as Beneath and Conquest combined. That might not connect with audiences right now, no matter how great or moving it turns out to be. If so, 150mil would be optimistic.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin June 16, 2017

        I don’t think necessarily think that Atomic Blonde can’t pass $20 million, but I just think it’ll reach up to $22 million at most. Atomic Blonde was also directed by one of the co-directors of John Wick (the other co-director directed John Wick Chapter 2). Despite appeal to the audience of John Wick and perhaps others as well, my concern is that Atomic Blonde feels less mainstream, something that could have also affected the turnout rate for It Comes at Night.
        Regarding Apes, this third one is supposedly the end of a trilogy and is coming off the heals of the second one that earned great reviews. I think it’ll reach $70 million and be a bit shy of the second one considering the ferocious competition between action movies in July. Then, it’ll take a substantial tumble when Dunkirk comes out.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Devesh Pandey June 16, 2017

    Spiderman Homecoming, if well received will have a huge opening week of $135-$140 million though I agree to the point that there are high chances of superhero fatigue especially after many went/are going to watch Wonder Woman which will itself gross around $350 million domestic……I guess it’s gonna be everything or almost nothing because after GOTG 2, Wonder Woman was watched only because it was a very good movie and had rave reviews to go with….If Spiderman can achieve anything near that….The weekend is gonna be huge otherwise we’re staring at a $110 million opening weekend which will still be very good but with (expectedly) better movies to come in Dunkirk, War for the Plane of the Apes and also many movies running before it, it will have bad legs….

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice June 17, 2017

    I too think Atomic Blonde’s prediction is a bit high. Although Charlize Theron and James McAvoy are both having a good visible year due to the success of Fast and Furious and Split at the Box office so they may get some crossover fans who appreciated them. Also the trailers are action packed and there is this pro kickass woman theme infused in the media at the moment. All this will get more women out to see this. But I think Dunkirk will have such good word of mouth it will scoop up a lot of business from Blonde.

    I’m really not sure how Blonde will do. I can see anything from 14-25 million on opening weekend.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Matteo D. June 17, 2017

    I think Transformers will make at least $25 M opening day (which is on Wednesday) and make $60 on opening weekend. Despicable Me 3 should open to $130 on opening weekend with $380 in total and I predict Spider-Man will also make $130 M and finish at about $330 in total. Also too low on Annabelle since that and Dark Tower are the two headliners for this lackluster August. I predict Annabelle opens to $30 M opening weekend and finishes at about $95 M.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now June 17, 2017

    Even if it does manage to open at $23 million – which I kinda doubt (this summer hasn’t been very kind to comedies so far) – I seriously don’t see THE HOUSE pulling off $80 million. It’s the *fourth* raunchy comedy of the summer after SNATCHED, BAYWATCH and ROUGH NIGHT, all three of which disappointed. The film seems to be slacking a bit in the ad department, not helped by the fact that it hasn’t been able to push its trailers in front of a hit film. The premise feels a little scattershot, and it doesn’t seem to have the buzz that supported GET HARD and DADDY’S HOME (post-P&R Amy Poehler can’t quite match peak-popularity Kevin Hart for star power). Even if the film gets great reviews, DESPICABLE ME 3 and SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING will be dominating the conversation, and the counterprogramming/something different narrative can’t really help this one when it’s the fourth raunchy comedy this summer. If it gets reviews and buzz akin to, say, THE OTHER GUYS, I’d expect a $18-22 million debut, $55-60 million finish. Bad reviews, and we’re looking at something a bit closer to SNATCHED.

    And given Edgar Wright has yet to make a film posting numbers above $32 million, that $82 million prediction for BABY DRIVER looks a little optimistic, especially given its utter lack of stars and somewhat unclear premise (the trailers haven’t done a great job explaining why we should care about Baby, nor have they presented a premise beyond “Baby falls for a waitress, is intimidated by Jamie Foxx, does cool car moves”). I’m looking forward to the film, but I’m not sure most general audiences give a damn.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    J June 18, 2017

    Spider-Man Homecoming is still too high. It might get good reviews but it’s nothing new and there isn’t a demand for it like there was for a sequel to the highly popular Guardians of the Galaxy or the first ever Wonder Woman movie. Also, the competition is menacing with Despicable Me 3 on its second weekend, War For the Planet of the Apes(which by the way is too low) the next weekend, Transformers on its third weekend, and even Wonder Woman might still be legging it out and getting all the superhero attention. My prediction is 85-100 million for Spider-Man Homecoming.

    Reply

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