Long Range Forecast: ‘Atomic Blonde’ & ‘The Emoji Movie’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast welcomes two new additions to the wide release calendar. Our initial analysis and projections:

Atomic Blonde
Focus Features

PROS:

  • Charlize Theron’s stock as an action star has skyrocketed thanks to popular turns in the widely successful Mad Max: Fury Road and The Fate of the Furious. She could help this film transcend the usual male-heavy audience of similar genre flicks.
  • Similarly, James McAvoy’s popularity and appeal are also positive factors following his acclaimed performance in Split earlier this year, on top of his fan-favorite take on young Charles Xavier in the X-Men franchise.
  • Hailing from the director (David Leitch) of John Wick and the upcoming Deadpool 2, genre fans may take notable interest in this actioner.
  • The film’s marketing and trailer campaign have been strong thus far, eliciting the kind of frenetic popcorn action that helped make the John Wick films successful. The desire and need for original summer movies could also play into potential success.

CONS:

  • We’d like to see more growth on Facebook and Twitter, but as an original film, there’s still plenty of time for that to occur over the summer.
  • Initial reviews from festival screenings are generally positive with a 76 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from 17 critics, but a larger sample size will help validate what to expect from general audience reception.
  • The film opens at the end of a very busy July, particularly for target adult audiences. The holding power of films like Dunkirk and War for the Planet of the Apes could be important to deciding the eventual results of this film — however, with a $30 million production budget, it certainly doesn’t *need* to become a blockbuster to be a hit. Staying power may be the name of the game if reception is strong.

The Emoji Movie
Sony / Columbia

PROS:

  • The ubiquitous existence of emojis in every day life for audiences of almost every age gives this some pedigree of brand familiarity and interest, perhaps not unlike The Angry Birds Movie.
  • Opening four weeks after Despicable Me 3 — and only facing The Nut Job 2 as direct competition until late September — should help the film find a sizable family audience.
  • The film’s voice cast of well-known comedic actors like Patrick Stewart, Anna Faris, James Corden, T.J. Miller, Maya Rudolph, and Rob Riggle, could also help convince parents and teens to give the film a try.

CONS:

  • Unfortunately, the premise of a movie about emojis has become the butt of numerous jokes — some in a positive way, and others not so much. Then again, expectations were mixed for the likes of Angry Birds and The LEGO Movie, so we’re not counting out the possibility this proves to be more appealing to teens and potentially some older crowds than it initially appears to be.
  • Social media buzz is lukewarm at this stage. A strong marketing campaign and positive reviews could improve it by the time July 28 rolls around.
  • Although there’s a fair amount of time between this film and other high profile animated films, it will still be the fourth animated release of the summer. Parents can only spend so much on the genre within in a short time frame, especially with The LEGO Ninjago Movie coming in late September.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • With what we believe is the imminent breakout status of Wonder Woman, we’re continuing to lower expectations for The Mummy next weekend as the latter film continues to show middling signs of buzz.
  • Megan Leavey‘s theater count remains unconfirmed for next week. As such, we’re lowering expectations until more information is available. Positive early reviews could help grassroots word of mouth, though.
  • It Comes at Night continues to be a wild card. Strong reviews and counter-programming potential remain big advantages, but A24’s limited experience in marketing wide summer releases has skewed usual tracking methods.
  • A strong trailer campaign and solid social media presence are proving encouraging for Cars 3‘s potential.

Check out our complete 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night $11,500,000 -8% $33,500,000 -18% 2,500 A24
6/9/2017 Megan Leavey $4,000,000 -11% $12,500,000 -11% 1,000 Bleecker Street
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $39,000,000 -11% $100,000,000 -12% 4,000 Universal
6/16/2017 47 Meters Down n/a n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/16/2017 All Eyez On Me $18,000,000 $49,000,000 2,500 Lionsgate / Summit
6/16/2017 Cars 3 $56,000,000 14% $206,000,000 14% 4,000 Disney / Pixar
6/16/2017 Rough Night $25,000,000 $80,000,000 3,200 Sony
6/21/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $70,000,000 $187,000,000 -9% Paramount
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Amityville: The Awakening $8,500,000 $18,000,000 TWC / Dimension
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $75,000,000 $270,000,000 Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $26,000,000 $95,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $135,000,000 $325,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 The Big Sick n/a n/a Lionsgate
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $54,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $11,000,000 $25,500,000 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $60,000,000 $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 NEW $82,500,000 NEW Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 NEW $95,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS June 02, 2017

    Despicable Me 3 & War for the Planet of the Apes are still too low.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    MatteoD. June 02, 2017

    I think The Mummy will follow the same box office pattern of Ghostbusters. It will make $42 M opening weekend and probably $127 M in total only if it gets good reviews. It it gets like Baywatch or Pirates 5 reviews it will probably make BoxOffice Pro’s prediction. I hope this movie is good because Tom Cruise is a very good actor and so far the movie looks very fun.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 04, 2017

      Yes, The Mummy with Tom Cruise looks like a fun popcorn movie, but it looks all set to flop in the US, as a projected $35 million opening translates to a 59% drop on its second weekend. The only thing good reviews could do is soften that aforementioned drop, but otherwise, good reviews are probably going to be long shot for this movie.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Matteo D'Anello June 06, 2017

        Thanks for the reply. I think this movie is going to pull a Kong: Skull Island where the week before Logan over performed which let people to believe that Kong was gonna make somewhere in the low $40 M range. But then it got decent reviews and pulled in over $61 M over the weekend. I think this could happen with The Mummy because maybe Wonder Woman makes $55 M over its 2nd weekend but maybe The Mummy can make a decent start of $45 M.

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice June 02, 2017

    I feel as though Atomic Blonde will score anywhere between 18-24 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 02, 2017

      Even that number is too high for Atomic Blonde; just take a look at Focus Feature’s box office history! What many are failing to realize is that unless a major studio is distributing that movie, Focus Features tends to target speciality audiences, not general audiences. With that said, it’s opening is $20 million max with a more likely $10-15 million. Though the director of it also co-directed John Wick, I don’t think Atomic Blonde will connect with general or mainstream audiences.
      Dunkirk may come in a little lower than the expected opening at $55 million, but it will also drop rather slowly, though I don’t expect holds to be as good as February’s Get Out.
      War of the Planet of the Apes may get a $70 million opening, but that second week drop is probably going to be large.
      Spider-Man’s opening probably won’t exceed $130 million and be primarily around $110-115 million, all of that depending on how willing audiences are on seeing another Spider-man reboot (that recently released poster though won’t do it much favors).
      The Emoji Movie looks like an obnoxious cheap shot by Sony Animation (who has a rather terrible review history on their film line-ups) to make a movie akin to Pixar’s masterpiece Inside Out. Personal opinions aside though, the movie will probably open to $15-20 million and hold okay until Nut Job 2 threatens to divert the audience away from it.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J June 02, 2017

        I agree with everything stated. Well said.

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    J June 02, 2017

    Emoji Movie too high and Atomic Blonde is also too high. War for the Planet is too low, Spider-Man Homecoming too high, and Dunkirk is too high. You know what’s not too high? The number of Pirates of the Caribbean sequels.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Moe June 02, 2017

      Hahaha!

      Oh, and I agree with your analysis and conclusions about those films…

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J June 02, 2017

        Good to hear!

        Reply
  5. Avatar
    Malik June 04, 2017

    I still think your Cars 3 prediction is too low, I believe it will make 80 million or more.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 06, 2017

      Families may have too many options throughout June, and it doesn’t help that Cars 2 had equivalent reviews to Transformers 3. They may settle instead for Despicable Me 3, leaving Cars 3 with $60 million max.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Unicornlover June 07, 2017

    That Spiderman total makes me cringe … It’s so awkward to see.Do we need another spiderman so quickly after tobey and andrew ?? When will the studios learn their lessons enough with the reboots and sequels !!!

    Reply

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