Long Range Forecast: ‘Born In China,’ ‘Free Fire,’ ‘Leap!,’ & ‘Unforgettable’
This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast welcomes four new films to our eight-week tracking calendar: Born In China, Free Fire, Leap!, and Unforgettable.
The first of the group marks the seventh film in the Disneynature series of documentaries releasing around Earth Day (falling on Saturday, April 22 this year) which began with 2009’s Earth. Grosses for the five installments that have followed generally landed within similar ranges, and we’re expecting the same to be the case with Born In China.
We previously covered Free Fire in a story several weeks back when it was slated to open in March, but was then (wisely) delayed until April. Our confidence in the action-thriller’s sleeper potential remains steady at this time, and if A24 can properly execute effective marketing, we think it has potential to be one of their top box office performers to date.
Leap! will represent the
third animated film to open within a span of just five weeks (correction: the fourth animated film within four weeks), which automatically limits its potential. The film has performed relatively well in overseas release (particularly in its native country of France), but TWC’s history with animated releases on the domestic front is notably limited. Combined with the competition, expectations in the States are modest.
Last, but not least, Unforgettable will hope to court audiences that turned out for the likes of When the Bough Breaks and The Boy Next Door, among others. The thriller, starring Rosario Dawson and Katherine Heigl, is currently expected to be the top opener of its weekend — however, none of these four new releases will likely be a challenge for The Fate of the Furious in its second weekend.
Check out our forecast for this and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|3/3/2017||Before I Fall||$4,200,000||$10,800,000||2,700||Open Road|
|3/3/2017||The Shack||$7,000,000||17%||$25,600,000||16%||2,500||Lionsgate / Summit|
|3/10/2017||Kong: Skull Island||$40,000,000||$113,000,000||3,500||Warner Bros.|
|3/17/2017||Beauty and the Beast (2017)||$144,000,000||$470,000,000||Disney|
|3/17/2017||The Belko Experiment||$7,000,000||$16,000,000||High Top Releasing|
|3/24/2017||Life (2017)||$15,000,000||$50,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|3/31/2017||The Boss Baby||$24,000,000||$83,000,000||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|3/31/2017||Ghost in the Shell (2017)||$40,000,000||$105,000,000||Paramount / DreamWorks|
|3/31/2017||Step Sisters||n/a||n/a||Broad Green Pictures|
|3/31/2017||The Zookeeper’s Wife||$5,000,000||$19,000,000||Focus Features|
|4/7/2017||The Case for Christ||$3,500,000||$14,000,000||Pure Flix|
|4/7/2017||Going In Style (2017)||$12,500,000||$49,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|4/7/2017||Smurfs: The Lost Village||$21,500,000||$78,500,000||Sony / Columbia|
|4/14/2017||The Fate of the Furious||$110,000,000||$264,000,000||Universal|
|4/21/2017||Born in China||$5,500,000||NEW||$19,000,000||NEW||Disneynature|
|4/21/2017||LEAP!||$6,000,000||NEW||$19,000,000||NEW||The Weinstein Company|
Forecasts in this article represent expectations based on current buzz as measured by various tracking metrics and should not be treated as final predictions for any film.
Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.