Long Range Forecast: ‘Born In China,’ ‘Free Fire,’ ‘Leap!,’ & ‘Unforgettable’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast welcomes four new films to our eight-week tracking calendar: Born In ChinaFree FireLeap!, and Unforgettable.

The first of the group marks the seventh film in the Disneynature series of documentaries releasing around Earth Day (falling on Saturday, April 22 this year) which began with 2009’s Earth. Grosses for the five installments that have followed generally landed within similar ranges, and we’re expecting the same to be the case with Born In China.

We previously covered Free Fire in a story several weeks back when it was slated to open in March, but was then (wisely) delayed until April. Our confidence in the action-thriller’s sleeper potential remains steady at this time, and if A24 can properly execute effective marketing, we think it has potential to be one of their top box office performers to date.

Leap! will represent the third animated film to open within a span of just five weeks (correction: the fourth animated film within four weeks), which automatically limits its potential. The film has performed relatively well in overseas release (particularly in its native country of France), but TWC’s history with animated releases on the domestic front is notably limited. Combined with the competition, expectations in the States are modest.

Last, but not least, Unforgettable will hope to court audiences that turned out for the likes of When the Bough Breaks and The Boy Next Door, among others. The thriller, starring Rosario Dawson and Katherine Heigl, is currently expected to be the top opener of its weekend — however, none of these four new releases will likely be a challenge for The Fate of the Furious in its second weekend.

Check out our forecast for this and other upcoming films in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
3/3/2017 Before I Fall $4,200,000 $10,800,000 2,700 Open Road
3/3/2017 Logan $81,000,000 3% $225,000,000 10% 3,900 Fox
3/3/2017 The Shack $7,000,000 17% $25,600,000 16% 2,500 Lionsgate / Summit
3/10/2017 Kong: Skull Island $40,000,000 $113,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros.
3/17/2017 Beauty and the Beast (2017) $144,000,000 $470,000,000 Disney
3/17/2017 The Belko Experiment $7,000,000 $16,000,000 High Top Releasing
3/24/2017 CHiPS $16,000,000 $53,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/24/2017 Life (2017) $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/24/2017 Power Rangers $38,000,000 $110,000,000 Lionsgate
3/31/2017 The Boss Baby $24,000,000 $83,000,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3/31/2017 Ghost in the Shell (2017) $40,000,000 $105,000,000 Paramount / DreamWorks
3/31/2017 Step Sisters n/a n/a Broad Green Pictures
3/31/2017 The Zookeeper’s Wife $5,000,000 $19,000,000 Focus Features
4/7/2017 The Case for Christ $3,500,000 $14,000,000 Pure Flix
4/7/2017 Going In Style (2017) $12,500,000 $49,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/7/2017 Smurfs: The Lost Village $21,500,000 $78,500,000 Sony / Columbia
4/14/2017 The Fate of the Furious $110,000,000 $264,000,000 Universal
4/14/2017 Spark $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Open Road
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,500,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW Disneynature
4/21/2017 Free Fire $8,000,000 NEW $24,000,000 NEW A24
4/21/2017 LEAP! $6,000,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW The Weinstein Company
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,000,000 NEW $23,500,000 NEW Warner Bros.

Forecasts in this article represent expectations based on current buzz as measured by various tracking metrics and should not be treated as final predictions for any film.

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

4 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Taylor February 24, 2017

    “Leap! will represent the third animated film to open within a span of just five weeks”? It’s actually the 4th in 4 weeks. Starting with The Boss Baby March 31, Smurfs April 7 and Spark April 14.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Shawn Robbins February 25, 2017

      Thanks for the catch! Updated.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    kathy Pratt February 26, 2017

    what happened to the estimate of what the film will gross for its whole run in your prediction section? I really miss that because some movies open small but end up big for ex. LaLa Land. Would appreciate having it back was very helpful

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor February 27, 2017

      There is still the cumulative sum; it’s just that the page is wide so you have to scroll to the right to access that.

      Reply

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