Long Range Forecast: ‘Cars 3,’ ‘Rough Night,’ & ‘All Eyez On Me’

Our latest edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a look at the weekend of June 16-18, which is currently slated for the wide release of four titles. Our analysis and updated forecast table follow:

Cars 3
Disney / Pixar

PROS:

  • If there’s such a thing as a safe box office bet, it’s the combination of Disney and Pixar.
  • Reactions to the initial teasers have been largely positive, offering some hope among fans that the franchise is in course-correction mode after the divisive (by Pixar standards) Cars 2.
  • Getting a two-week head start on the release of Despicable Me 3 positions this to capture family audiences early in the summer as kids are getting out of school.

CONS:

  • The aforementioned reception of Cars 2 could be a hindrance to major anticipation for this third installment, particularly among older Pixar fans.
  • If Captain Underpants takes off with family crowds in early June, that will also soften some of the immediate demand for another animated option among parents and children.

Rough Night
Sony

PROS:

  • Scarlett Johansson, Kate McKinnon, and a solid ensemble cast could help bring out both men and women in this raunchy, R-rated comedy. Healthy buzz and strong trailers closer to release will be key, though.
  • As Bad Moms proved last summer (and Bridesmaids in 2011), “girls’ night out” comedies are not to be underestimated at the box office.
  • In general, the female audience has continued to be under-served in recent summers when compared to male-oriented films.

CONS:

  • As the second female-centric comedy to open this summer after Snatched in May, plus with the similarly themed Girls Trip in mid-July, the market isn’t as wide open for this title as it was for Bad Moms last year. Baywatch could also cut into the audience here if its staying power proves strong.
  • Initial social media buzz isn’t as strong as we’d like to see compared to similar films, but there’s plenty of time for that pick up.

All Eyez on Me
Lionsgate / Summit

PROS:

  • More than 20 years after his death, Tupac Shakur continues to stand as a legendary symbol among the hip-hop community.
  • Straight Outta Compton demonstrated the heights that bio-pics about modern hip-hop icons can reach. The counter-programming potential on opening weekend is noteworthy.
  • Social media buzz has been notably positive since the first trailer’s release.

CONS:

  • Reviews and a big marketing push will be key to determining the ceiling for this film. It would be unfair to expect Straight Outta Compton-like box office numbers — then again, this film doesn’t necessarily need them.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • April’s end-of-spring market continues to look soft as tracking and social media buzz for The CircleHow to be a Latin Lover, and Sleight have yet to break out beyond expectations.
  • First industry tracking for King ArthurSnatched, and Lowriders was released this week. The former two titles indicate trends that line up with our earlier forecasts. We’ve added our first predictions for Lowriders below.
  • Captain Underpants‘ position as the first animated release of summer and its status as the only non-sequel animated title before July 28’s Emoji Movie continue to increase our optimism.
  • Due to Entertainment Studios’ lack of distribution and marketing history, we’ve temporarily excluded 47 Meters Down from the forecast. It’s scheduled to open June 16.

Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
4/28/2017 The Circle $10,000,000 $27,000,000 -10% 2,800 STX Entertainment
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 $23,000,000 1,000 Lionsgate
4/28/2017 Sleight $4,000,000 -20% $8,800,000 -20% 1,600 BH Tilt
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000 4,200 Disney
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 $67,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Lowriders $5,500,000 NEW $15,300,000 NEW BH Tilt
5/12/2017 Snatched $25,000,000 $85,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $35,000,000 $90,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $10,000,000 $32,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $8,500,000 $26,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/25/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000 FSS
$42,000,000 FSSM
$115,000,000 Paramount
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $61,000,000
$75,000,000 FSSM
$190,000,000 Disney
6/2/2017 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie $28,000,000 17% $93,500,000 17% Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 $225,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night $12,000,000 $39,000,000 A24
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $50,000,000 $143,000,000 Universal
6/16/2017 47 Meters Down n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/16/2017 All Eyez On Me $18,000,000 NEW $49,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
6/16/2017 Cars 3 $49,000,000 NEW $180,000,000 NEW Disney / Pixar
6/16/2017 Rough Night $25,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW Sony

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

16 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Johnny Dollar April 21, 2017

    ALL EYEZ will do north of $25m, and if it’s actually a good film, much, much more. He’s several generations’ Elvis Presley and Che Guevara rolled into one, and his appeal transcends color, nationality, and culture. It has a solid chance to break out, and as Tupac is a global icon, it could be one of the rare urban films that travels.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      sherman May 11, 2017

      i agree all eyez on me doing 30 mill first weekend not 18 mill

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now April 21, 2017

    ROUGH NIGHT has not had the kind of exposure that BAD MOMS had at this point (though SNATCHED and BAYWATCH will help get the word out), and it also doesn’t have the kind of “right there in the title” easy sell that BAD MOMS had. It also seems quite a bit darker in its humor than your average “girls’ night out” comedy, which could limit its potential with that crowd. With that in mind, I would be fairly surprised if this managed to open bigger than BAD MOMS ($23 million). Scarlett Johannson is only a movie star when she’s paired with a winning concept or franchise, as GHOST IN THE SHELL proved, and McKinnon remains untested as a box office entity (GHOSTBUSTERS was overshadowed by controversy, MASTERMINDS fell victim to bankruptcy issues and OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY trailers emphasized Jason Bateman and T.J. Miller over her). I’m expecting an opening closer to $14-$15 million, with the possibility of strong holds (a la BAD MOMS) giving it a final total in the $60-70 million range.

    Pixar franchises typically defy the ravages of time that derail most kids’ movie series’, but then again, TOY STORY 2 and FINDING NEMO (the predecessors of the most recent other Pixar sequels) were well-liked and had cross-generational appeal, whereas CARS 2 is not very fondly remembered by most. CARS 3 has done a decent job trying to push the “something completely different” angle, though the buzz after the bizarre initial trailer seems to have mostly died down, but between CARS 2 and the PLANES franchise, the damage is arguably already done. General audiences don’t really understand or care that the PLANES movies aren’t Pixar productions, indicating that that audience *is* willing to skip out on what they think are Pixar films if they look bad or they’ve been burned by the franchise in question. And DESPICABLE ME 3 will be looming large on the horizon with a likely highly pervasive ad campaign on tv and in theaters. Parents that have to pick and choose one will probably spring for DESPICABLE ME over CARS. That said, if CARS 3 can win over reviewers and initial audiences, it could boast much stronger legs than CARS 2, though it will only be able to get so far before DESPICABLE ME 3 steals the spotlight. With good reviews, expect a $55 million debut, $190 million finish. With bad reviews/bad press, expect a $50 million debut, $140 million finish.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    DangerS April 21, 2017

    I’m thinking Cars 3 could end up with $70-75M OW and $240-250M total if it gets good word of mouth.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Mighty Bolton April 21, 2017

    Your very very very delusional if you think Rough Night is doing bigger numbers then All Eyez On Me. The Tupac Biopic will do well over 200 million at box office.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Michael Zokou June 07, 2017

      exactly . All EYEZ ON ME will do most likely 90 mil opening weekend

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Justin April 22, 2017

    Still underestimating Pirates 5, and yes I say that every time. It will make 110-120 million over 4 days and over 200 million by the end of it easily.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS April 22, 2017

      Exactly. I can’t see it doing less than the last one, especially after it being considered the best Pirates since the original.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Ed April 24, 2017

        No

        Reply
  6. Avatar
    James janckins April 22, 2017

    Thank you for the great work do as box office but why did Logan have to die in wolverine 3?Is he coming back in X men the new part of 2017 or 2018…?

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    nomyth April 24, 2017

    We’re heading into a very weak May. And I believe most of these movies are being overpredicted right now. King Arthur stands out to me. I could easily see it pulling Great Wall numbers (or much less). Buzz just doesn’t seem strong at all. That Snatched prediction also seems optimistic to me. I think Baywatch stands the best chances at overperforming right now (regarding May releases).

    I expect business to pick back up in June though. Wonder Woman is definitely being underpredicted, imo. I’m still expecting 100m +. Captain Underpants could definitely overperform as well. I see all 3 movies opening much bigger on June 16. Both All Eyez on Me and Rough Night have break out potential. Still unsure about The Mummy. However, I would say their prediction is on the absolute high end.

    That Cars 3 prediction stands out as unusual to me, however. That would be a big drop in terms of opening weekend, but a big jump in terms of longevity. And I just can’t see either happening. Cars 3 will inevitably face a huge drop in its 3rd weekend against Despicable Me 3. I would be very surprised if it’s able to pull more than a 3x multiplier. If that prediction was 69/180, I would definitely agree.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Carlo Alberto Galanti May 01, 2017

      Pirates 5?

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    Steve April 26, 2017

    I think that you are seriously underestimating Baywatch. The Rock is arguably the biggest movie star in the world right now. I see Baywatch doing about 43 for three days and for the four day weekend I say it will do about 55 million and for it’s final tally stateside I say about 160 million

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Pooka April 26, 2017

    With Cars 3 being G rated (confirmed by the MPAA via Box Office Mojo), it will be interesting on how this does. IMO, not sure if CU can break above the $35-45 million norm for a Blue Sky movie as of late. Cars 3 is I think underestimated, like Sing was: I’ll say $65-70 million, and close at $250 million.

    Here are stats of the past Pixar Movies falling going vs. an Illumination Entertainment’s movie opening weekend:

    TS3: 30.4% (VS. DM1)

    MU: 56.8% (VS. DM2)

    IO: 40.7% (VS. Minions 1)

    FD: 50.2% (VS. TSLOP 1)

    Based off the 4, the average drop is 44% (49.23% if TS3 is excluded), so If Cars 3 can do similar to FD, there’s my guess for the $250 million.

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *