Long Range Forecast: ‘The Circle,’ ‘How to Be a Latin Lover,’ & ‘Sleight’ Set to Close Out April Box Office

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the final releases before the official summer season begins. April 28 is currently slated to see the debuts of The CircleHow to Be a Latin Lover, and Sleight.

Among the three, The Circle currently looks to have the best chance of opening the highest thanks to its built-in audience (fans of Dave Eggers’ book), encouraging social media activity at this stage, and star power (Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and Star Wars‘ John Boyega). Latin Lover is looking to counter-program with its appeal to Latino audiences, while Sleight will aim for teens and young twenty-somethings — an audience it may face up an uphill battle finding against The Circle.

This Week’s Changes & Other Additions

Notable among this week’s changes to films we’re publicly tracking:

  • Beauty and the Beast continues to dominate social media, traditional tracking, and presales reports. We’ve lowered our domestic total forecast to more accurately reflect potential front-loading given the immense buzz behind the film. The film’s reviews will still be key to its long term outlook, though.
  • Buzz for The Belko Experiment has stalled somewhat, and will likely have a hard time breaking out so soon after the wildly successful Get Out.
  • Slamma Jamma and Phoenix Forgotten have been added to the wide release slate, but we are not currently offering public forecasts given their limited distributor histories.
  • The Promise has been added to the wide release slate, but we currently expect a low profile run.

Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
3/10/2017 Kong: Skull Island $40,000,000 $113,000,000 3,800 Warner Bros.
3/17/2017 Beauty and the Beast (2017) $144,000,000 $420,000,000 -11% 4,000 Disney
3/17/2017 The Belko Experiment $5,000,000 -29% $10,500,000 -34% 1,650 High Top Releasing
3/24/2017 CHiPS $16,000,000 $53,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/24/2017 Life (2017) $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/24/2017 Power Rangers $38,000,000 $110,000,000 Lionsgate
3/24/2017 Slamma Jamma n/a NEW n/a NEW River Rain
3/31/2017 The Boss Baby $24,000,000 $83,000,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3/31/2017 Ghost in the Shell (2017) $40,000,000 $105,000,000 Paramount / DreamWorks
3/31/2017 Step Sisters n/a n/a Broad Green Pictures
3/31/2017 The Zookeeper’s Wife $5,000,000 $19,000,000 Focus Features
4/7/2017 The Case for Christ $3,500,000 $14,000,000 Pure Flix
4/7/2017 Going In Style (2017) $12,500,000 $49,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/7/2017 Smurfs: The Lost Village $21,500,000 $78,500,000 Sony / Columbia
4/14/2017 The Fate of the Furious $110,000,000 $264,000,000 Universal
4/14/2017 Spark $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Open Road
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,500,000 $19,000,000 Disneynature
4/21/2017 Free Fire $8,000,000 $24,000,000 A24
4/21/2017 LEAP! $6,000,000 $19,000,000 The Weinstein Company
4/21/2017 Phoenix Forgotten n/a NEW n/a NEW Cinelou Films
4/21/2017 The Promise $2,250,000 NEW $4,000,000 NEW Open Road Films
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,000,000 $23,500,000 Warner Bros.
4/28/2017 The Circle $13,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW STX Entertainment
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 NEW $23,000,000 NEW Lionsgate
4/28/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 NEW $11,000,000 NEW BH Tilt

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Michael March 05, 2017

    The Circle will do more than $40 Million domestically. Trailers have been spot on and definitely created some buzz, not to mention it’s based on a best selling novel. Beauty and the Beast will help this film since they both share the same star

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Don't Mind Me Now March 06, 2017

      $40 million seems mostly on point to me. Emma Watson will likely receive some boost from BATB, but at the same, BATB will still be making money, and she has yet to prove herself as a star outside of a branded property. Since Potter, her only films to (barely) make >$100 million were Noah, where she had only a limited marketing presence, and This is the End, where she was just a glorified cameo (though said cameo was admittedly prominent in the marketing). Her “big face in the marketing” roles (Perks of Being a Wallflower, Bling Ring, My Week with Marilyn) have never made above $18 million. Here, though, she has the support of Tom Hanks and John Boyega, the latter benefiting from this being his first big role since The Force Awakens. But even Hanks’ star power isn’t infallible – see A Hologram for the King and Inferno from last year.

      Regardless, star power only goes so far; will people get excited about the concept? Possibly. Surveillance and technology is certainly a timely and interesting topic, but the movie appears to be going for a balanced approach to the topic (positives and negatives) in a time when people are fixating heavily on the negative aspects, which will only get worse if Trump’s wiretap conspiracy theories continue to dominate the social conversation. Regardless of what angle the film takes, though, a distasteful subject matter could suppress grosses. The other big factor is STX Entertainment, which has been wildly inconsistent in selling its movies to the public – they scored with Bad Moms and The Gift, but dropped the ball hard with The Edge of Seventeen and The Space Between Us. Given Watson’s films frequently cause more social buzz than actual attention, is the social media excitement really reflecting an interested public, or just Harry Potter fans talking about their favorite star’s newest project?

      My bet is that the film will do above-average business for STX, with a unique group of stars and an intriguing marketing campaign boosting its grosses – but that competition (Fate of the Furious), uncomfortable subject matter and STX’s general inexperience will keep it from truly breaking out. Thus, $40 million.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Michael March 07, 2017

        Wow I honestly appreciate the reply especially with a well detailed analogy. That said, I still say over $40 million domestically. Maybe not $100 million in total domestically, but I think higher than $40 Million. Agree on STX claims though

        Reply

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