Long Range Forecast: ‘Coco,’ ‘Death Wish,’ & ‘Molly’s Game’; ‘Blade Runner 2049’ Buzz Building

Our preview of the holiday movie season continues this week as the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at what to expect from Thanksgiving weekend’s new releases. The spotlight will shine on Pixar’s Coco, while Death Wish and Molly’s Game also seek to find their target audiences over the extended frame. Our initial forecast:

PROS:

  • Coco (Disney / Pixar) will mark Pixar’s 19th feature film, and their first non-sequel since 2015’s The Good Dinosaur opened over the same holiday frame. Trailers have been warmly received by fans and families, helping to generate social media activity on par with the likes of Inside Out and Big Hero 6 at comparable points before release. The lack of blockbuster animated titles this year should further increase demand among parents, while the film’s central story and setting set it up to appeal strongly across the growing Latino and Hispanic communities.
  • Death Wish (Annapurna / MGM) will aim to counter-program among older male audiences with Bruce Willis stepping in to remake the role Charles Bronson made famous in the 1970s. Director Eli Roth’s fan base could also turn out, giving this an interesting cross-section of potential moviegoers.
  • Molly’s Game (STXfilms) hails from writer and first-time director Aaron Sorkin, whose considerable legion of fans will be relied upon here. Equally as important will be Jessica Chastain’s increasing stardom and the film’s potential award season candidacy. Early reviews from various screenings are very encouraging at this stage with a 93 percent Rotten Tomatoes score across 29 reviewers.

CONS:

  • There are very few factors working against Coco at this point in time. The only cautionary tale is to mention the film lacks a major star (ala Dwayne Johnson in last Thanksgiving’s Moana) to bolster opening weekend drawing power, but that’s only a minor concern with the Disney/Pixar brand power. The only thing that can genuinely hurt a holiday season Disney/Pixar title in the long run will ultimately be word of mouth, but their history generally speaks for itself at this point.
  • Death Wish is unlikely to break out beyond target audiences with male-driven action flicks like Justice League and Thor: Ragnarok still likely to be heavy hitters over the holiday frame. Social buzz is also minimal this far out from release.
  • Similarly, Molly’s Game will need more than Chastain and Sorkin’s fans to drive it (as exemplified by the lukewarm runs of Miss Sloane and Steve Jobs, respectively). Opening against Darkest Hour in limited release that weekend could also be a factor with Gary Oldman’s performance as Winston Churchill likely to attract similar adult moviegoers interested in prestige-level films.

This Week’s Notable Updates

  • Fandango announced this morning — on the heels of an early review embargo lift from Warner Bros. — that Blade Runner 2049 is outselling Mad Max: Fury RoadThe Martian, and Gravity at the same point in the pre-release cycle. For now, we’re maintaining our expectation of a strong debut somewhere between $40-50 million since those comps occurred before the company’s exhibitor and customer outreach expanded over the last 2+ years. That being said, the film’s current 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and intense fan interest could drive momentum even higher by the time our final forecast is published ahead of opening day next week.
  • Lukewarm social media trends for Only the Brave have convinced us to lower expectations slightly, but it remains filed under “potential sleeper” for the time being.
  • Jigsaw‘s prospects are improving somewhat with a planned IMAX and premium screen release in late October, not to mention a heavy dose of awareness building thanks to its trailer attachment in front of IT over the past few weeks.
  • Suburbicon‘s first wave of reactions are underwhelming with a 41 percent score among 49 Rotten Tomatoes critics. At this point, the turnout by fans of Matt Damon, director George Clooney, and the scripting Coen Brothers will be crucial if the film is to generate staying power throughout the holiday corridor.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $48,000,000 9% $135,000,000 17% 3,900 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $11,500,000 $36,000,000 2,900 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,000,000 -7% $20,000,000 -7% 2,500 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 2,700 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 3,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 2,600 Open Road
10/13/2017 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $15,000,000 -6% $51,500,000 -6% Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $33,000,000 7% Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $13,500,000 35% $29,000,000 35% Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $10,000,000 -29% $32,000,000 -29% Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 $95,000,000 Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 $84,600,000 Fox
11/17/2017 Justice League $150,000,000 $330,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 $60,000,000 Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 $60,000,000 Lionsgate
11/22/2017 Coco $60,000,000* NEW $270,000,000 NEW Disney
11/22/2017 Death Wish $8,000,000* NEW $23,000,000 NEW Annapurna / MGM
11/22/2017 Molly’s Game $6,000,000* NEW $21,000,000 NEW STXfilms

* denotes 3-day (Friday-Sunday) forecast for films opening on Wednesday

For client or media requests relating to box office analyses and forecasts, please contact Shawn Robbins

Boxoffice Staff

15 Comments

  1. Avatar
    MimikyuILoveYou September 29, 2017

    You should add to the pros of Coco that an Olaf (Frozen) short plays before the movie.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    AdrionAdonisFan September 29, 2017

    That would be a con.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Rick September 29, 2017

    Coco comes on the heels of two huge super hero movies that are going to be taking up a whole lot of screen time! I don’t see this film opening at #1!

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Whodunit September 29, 2017

    I’m thinking Blade Runner will do $67 million opening wknd. And will hit $200 million domestic.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Dave September 29, 2017

    I think you’re giving Death Wish too much credit. Trailer reactions were resoundingly negative *from the core audience* because of how tone deaf generic and tired it looked in the trailer.

    Also Eli Roth has zero box office clout. His biggest hits are bombs by any other standard.

    I am gonna say $5 opening, $11.5M closing for Death Wish

    Reply
    • Avatar
      John September 30, 2017

      And Bruce has become box office poison.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Hack Synder September 29, 2017

    Lolz. That JL prediction

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    lj September 29, 2017

    I think Blade Runner 2049 will pull an IT and surprise everyone. $75,000,000 opener.

    Do not underestimate the Latin audience. Coco will open closer to $80 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS October 06, 2017

      It will be at $80M+ for the five day Weekend. The $60M projection is from Friday to Sunday.

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice September 30, 2017

    I think Blade Runner will hit $67million on its opening weekend. And will gross overr $200 million domestic.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Geese Howard October 01, 2017

      In a perfect work, maybe, but certainly not the one we live in.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Marek Rehacek (Czech Republic) October 03, 2017

      Rating R, NHL starts the season, 2h 43min long movie => the Blade Runner will hit $35-45million on its opening weekend. Total domestic gross around $140million. Gravity and Martian were PG-13.

      Reply
  9. Avatar
    DangerS September 30, 2017

    I was thinking around $50M for Coco ($75M for the 5-day weekend) and a total of $220-230M, but it could go higher with no direct competition.

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    A Girl Has No Name September 30, 2017

    Blade Runner 2049: $60M | $240M
    Thor Ragnarok: $115M | $310M
    Justice League: $195M | $465M
    Coco: $55M | $255M

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    Sander Broos September 30, 2017

    That domestic total seems way too high for Coco

    Reply

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